저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 비트코인을 투기적 실체 없는 자산으로 보고 매수를 강하게 경고했다. 거시 경제 진단 쉬프는 2020~2021년 양적완화(QE1~3)와 대규모 재정지출로 통화가 과잉 공급됐고, 이 인플레이션 쓰나미가 결국 현실화됐다고 주장했다. 미국 정부는 2021년 3월까지 1년 새 약 13조 달러를 찍어냈다고 언급했다(코로나 구호 5.2조, 경기부양 4.5조, 인프라 3조). 인플레이션 전망 연 8~8.5% 수준의 인플레이션이 더 높아질 것이며, 연준이 이를 잡을 수 없다고 봤다. 인플레를 잡으려면 2008년보다 더 심한 금융위기나 대공황급 경기침체를 허용해야 한다고 주장했다. 재정 전망 미국 국가부채가 31조 달러로 2년 새 8조 달러 증가했고, 재정적자 축소를 위해 중산층 증세와 대규모 재정 긴축이 필요하다고 봤다. 비트코인 평가 쉬프는 비트코인을 인플레 헤지나 안전자산으로 보지 않는다. 그레이스케일 GBTC는 프리미엄 20%에서 할인 35%로 전환됐고, 고점 대비 80% 하락했다고 지적했다. 기관이 매도 중이라며, 지금 사는 것은 다른 사람의 비트코인을 떠넘겨받는 것이라고 주장했다. 대안으로 금·은 등 실물 귀금속을 제시했다. 영상 발언 시점은 2022년 10월로, 당시 비트코인은 약 2만 달러 부근이었다.
다듬은 글
you know it's in a holding pattern right it's around 20 000 it hasn't really moved uh for quite a while even the network growth is kind of stalling a little bit at about uh I think it's about 48 million or so addresses uh with a value greater than zero and I think Bitcoin is just waiting around uh for the macro narrative to improve I think more warnings coming from financial analyst Peter Schiff he was one of the first economic commentators to predict the 2018 economic recession and he's back warning of an impending economic collapse even bigger than the last Global recession this time he says Bitcoin will be swept away as he describes the world's foremost cryptocurrency as a mistake welcome to this episode subscribe to this channel if you want to stay updated on the latest Market situations and for cryptocurrency updates let's listen to Peter Schiff as he talks about the economy and what to expect I always knew that the problem was the government had Unleashed this massive inflation tsunami I just didn't know you know when it was going to hit I thought it would have hit sooner but they did qe1 QE2 qe3 they printed all this money we had massive budget deficits we created amount of inflation and but nobody cared about the inflation because all they did is look at the CPI and they said well you know it's not going up more than two percent and part of the reason for that was the way they rigged the numbers it really was going up more than two percent but it wasn't going up 10 maybe it was going up four or five percent but they could budget enough to make it look like it was going up less than two percent but after we kicked the you know monetary uh you know uh heroin into a massive overdose after covid right we just went crazy with the money Printing and we sent everybody home and and had people not work I mean that really brought everything to a head by March 2021 the U.S government had printed an additional 13 trillion dollars all within a year 5.2 trillion dollars was spent for covid-19 Relief programs 4.5 trillion dollars went into stimulating the economy and three trillion dollars was spent on infrastructure this is the biggest spending in the U.S history perhaps in human history World War II had cost the US 4.7 trillion dollars when adjusted to today's value that's 500 billion dollars less than spending for covid-19 response programs this magnitude of government expenditure is what has got Schiff worried with so much money being released into circulation it was indeed a matter of time for inflation to set in but the government is not slowing down President Biden has laid out several plans that would further inflate government spending which could be counterproductive active to the deficit reduction the Federal Reserve is pursuing Peter Schiff says the current economic upheaval is due to money supply increasing exponentially over the past decade while CPI the index that measures the rate of inflation had been very low over that period it was only a matter of time before it spiked and we saw that Spike this year he warns that this is not the end of the road inflation could return and an eventual recession would be necessary to reset the economy so now we're experiencing the consequence of the inflation I've been warning about for more than a decade and this is just the tip of the iceberg it's going to get a lot worse the eight percent eight and a half percent year-over-year inflation that we've seen is going to go much higher the FED is not going to be able to fight inflation it spent the last 10 years or more creating inflation and there's no way they're going to get rid of it not unless they're willing to allow a much worse than financial a much worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008 not unless they're willing to allow a far greater recession than the Great Recession we had in 2008-2009 and in order for us to get rid of inflation the government is going to have to get rid of the budget deficits because they've been paid for with inflation so we have to have massive cuts to government spending and maybe big increases in taxes not on the rich but on the middle class on average Americans are going to have to pay much higher taxes the U.S GDP fell by 8.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
it was the biggest drop in 70 years the country had seen the U.S deficit Rose from one trillion dollars to about 3.2 trillion that year alone the U.S deficit to GDP ratio puts pressure on the economy as debts lead to devaluation just recently the U.S debt reached a record 31 trillion dollars that is an 8 trillion dollar rise in in just two years the committee for responsible federal budget estimates that Joe Biden's government alone had added five trillion dollars to the U.S deficit since assuming office with the inflation reduction act and other stimulus programs like the student loans forgiveness plan which is expected to go up another 400 billion into the pipeline it is likely that government spending may not go down as drastically as needed but unfortunately you know bitcoin's going down with it you know I I don't know I feel really bad for you know for you because I've got your you know you're thinking right about economics you kind of understand that and I you know I see some of your talks and yeah you know you've got that down you understand you know the Austin economic angle you know what the mistakes are that's right but you're fixated on bitcoin Bitcoin is another mistake you got to understand that there's not there's no substance there it's not gold it's not digital gold why do you think Bitcoin is still at nineteen thousand you know what despite all the money that was spent hyping it up in 2021 despite that run up to near 70 000.
look where it is why do you think the grayscale Bitcoin trust that used to be at a 30 premium is at a 35 discount do you really think institutions are adopting Bitcoin when they're trying to unload it and that fund is trading at a 35 discount the fund is down 80 percent uh from its peak is that a store of value is that a safe haven you know no it's not Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset but what the hell are you speculating on because there's nothing there there's no fundamentals there you're just speculating on a greater fool that is not what you want to do if you're really worried about the monetary problems and inflation and you're looking for a store of value in a safe haven you don't have to reinvent the wheel you've already got one you've got real money you've got gold you've got silver you've got monetary metals that you can own and you've got other assets that you can own to protect you from inflation you will get no protection from inflation in Bitcoin or any of these cryptos all you're going to do if you buy Bitcoin right now all you're doing is helping somebody else get rid of their Bitcoin the winner in that transaction is the loser is the buyer and the Biggest Loser is whoever buys the most and gets caught holding the bag Bitcoin enthusiasts such as Michael Saylor Kathy woods and Lynn Alden have predicted that institutional Investments would rescue Bitcoin and put it back on the growth path but Peter Schiff is pointing out that institutional investors are actually pulling out and selling their cryptocurrencies grayscale Bitcoin trust gbtc is one of the oldest and biggest traded Bitcoin trust in the U.S stock market gptc has 635 240 Bitcoins in Holdings with a current valuation of 12.8 billion dollars the company shares are backed by Bitcoin in an investment package that enables institutions and individuals to invest in the cryptocurrency currency without having to deal directly in Bitcoin before this year gptc had always traded about 20 premium but it is currently priced at minus 35 percent and that is a 35 discount to the current bitcoin Market valuation this discount shows how bearish institutional investors are about Bitcoin at the moment Peter Schiff strongly believes that Bitcoin would not last because he thinks the cryptocurrency is not backed by any business subscribing and clicking the like button would be great so do that now watch out for our next video
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