저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 경기침체 진입을 전제로 하면서도 비트코인은 기관 자금 유입으로 2030년 목표가 상향을 근거로 강세를 주장한다. 경기 지표: 선행지수 6개월 연속 하락(8월 -0.3%, 7월 -0.5%), 실질GDP 2분기 연속 마이너스를 근거로 경기침체로 판단한다. 고용: 실업률 8월 3.7%(7월 3.3%)로 아직 낮지만 가계조사 기준 최근 4개월 고용은 평균 마이너스이며, 금리 인상으로 실업률이 5.5%까지 오를 수 있다고 본다(블랙록 추정 300만명 실직). 달러: 달러 인덱스(DXY)가 주요 5개 통화 대비 강세이며 현재 20년 고점 수준이다. 신흥국 달러 부채 부담이 크다고 언급했다. 채권·주식: 채권시장은 1788년 이후 최악 수준, 상반기 주식시장은 1970년 이후 최악이다. 미국 가계 주식·뮤추얼펀드 보유액이 1월 42조달러에서 7월 33조달러로 감소했다. 비트코인: 약 7만달러에서 20달러 초반으로 하락했으나, 블랙록-코인베이스 파트너십 발표 이후 기관 참여 기대가 커졌다. 기관이 비트코인 2.5%를 편입하면 가격이 2배 이상 오를 것으로 추정하며, 유통 가능 물량은 약 300만 개에 불과하다는 논리다. 2030년 목표가 상향 자신감을 표명했다. 코인베이스: 파트너십 발표 후 일주일간 주가 16.5% 상승을 언급했다. 리스크: 경기침체 지속 시 고용 악화와 금리 인상 충격이 주요 위험이다. 신흥국은 인플레이션과 달러 부채 부담에 시달린다고 평가했다. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정은 인정하나 비트코인 장기 상승을 낙관하며, 신흥국 자금의 비트코인 헤지 수요 증가를 기대한다.
다듬은 글
we have three scoops instead down three tenths of one percent this means we now have six months in a row of negative reads on leading economic indicators and six out of the last eight considering this is August have been negative at the monetary Hammer coming down so hard is is really straining things um and and it's been an extraordinary couple of weeks in a recent interview Kathy Wood speaks on the Hedge Bitcoin has over other asset classes in the midst of consecutive decline in key economic indicators she's excited by the fact that BlackRock which is the largest funds manager in the world is beginning to show interest in Bitcoin sit back and enjoy yes we believe we're in a recession two consecutive negative quarters of real GDP growth uh is one three consecutive months of leading indicator declines is another indicator um employment I know everyone's focused on that non-farmint non-farm payroll employment very strong surprisingly strong but it is always a lagging indicator compared to the household survey of employment so going household by household instead of Company by company because that captures more small businesses those employment numbers are negative on average over the last four months so we think we're in a recession but what does that do to our research nothing what does innovation do Innovation solves problems and starting with covid major problems it's not news that the economy is in shambles presently economists are expressing their concerns on the declining major economic indicators every major economic index is pointing to the fact that the economy is in a recession so why is it not official well that's because some things are still positive one is unemployment rate which is still at a low 3.7 percent as of August it's up from 3.3 percent from July but still considerably low 3.7 is a good number for unemployment nothing to be alarmed at yet unfortunately it may not remain this way for long another bolster for the U.S economy is the growing strength of the dollar the dollar continues to strength and amidst Global monetary devaluations the USD has moved 92 points on the dxy to 113 points against all the five major currencies including the British pounds the Euro and the Yen besides the well-performing dollar there's nothing else praiseworthy in the investment space so far we've had six straight months of recessive leading indicators the conference board revealed that the leading economic index fell 0.3 percent in August after decreasing point five percent in July for unemployment that has so far remained low in the midst of the storm it may not remain so for long Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has warned that getting inflation under control will involve some pain to household and businesses increasing interest rates means less credit availability for businesses and this would eventually translate to a rise in unemployment the last time the U.S successfully used rate hikes to curb inflation unemployment rose up astronomically BlackRock is estimating that no less than 3 million Americans will lose their jobs taking unemployment from 3.7 percent to 5.5 percent by the time the FED succeeds in getting inflation to the two to three percent target range yes I think a lot of people have been surprised at how badly Bitcoin has done in this environment uh but what has happened especially since we first started doing our research um a lot more investors have become involved with it uh traditional and hedge fund investors and so in a risk-off environment which is what inflation and higher interest rates has meant over the last year and a half and a risk-off environment uh Bitcoin especially this year has has succumbed to the the significant deterioration in most asset classes I mean this is the worst bond market believe it or not since 1788 more than 200 years ago we've never been in this bad a bond market certainly through the first half of the year the stock market worst through the first half since 1970 and Bitcoin uh Bitcoin was doing well until last November it almost hit 70 a thousand now it's down to the low 20s and yes our confidence uh has increased believe it or not in our price Target one of the reasons is uh the the the um partnership between BlackRock and uh and coinbase uh we're seeing the traditional investment firms really being pulled by their clients into supporting or providing an infrastructure for institutional investing in the space and uh by our estimates alone if institutional investors put two and a half percent into Bitcoin that would more than double the price uh right now uh we think that um we think that that's just one use case though corporate equities and mutual fund Shares are also falling Americans Holdings fell from 42 trillion dollars in January to 33 trillion dollars by July a total loss of 10 trillion dollars is expected to be lost by the end of next month more than 9 trillion has been lost so far in the U.S financial markets thanks to Falling stocks and the bond market adding further losses to the market Kathy Wood is optimistic for Bitcoin and she has good reason to be because the biggest assets management firm is already looking in the direction of Bitcoin Asset Management giant BlackRock announced in August that it was going into partnership with the crypto exchange coinbase Global this partnership is exclusively for Bitcoin Investments they aren't interested in other cryptocurrencies it should be noted that BlackRock holds 10 trillion dollars in assets this could be huge for Bitcoin as this would introduce a lot of institutional investors to bitcoin if this deal is successful then there's likely going to be a price surge for a Bitcoin in the coming months the announcement of this partnership saw coinbase stocks appreciate by a huge 16.5 percent in just a week if you look at Emerging Markets which are being terrorized by inflation right now talk about collapsing purchasing power while while seventy thousand to the low twenties is a very big correction what it does not change that is the fact that Bitcoin is mathematically metered to top out at 21 million units and if you look at most of the supply we're at 18 and a half million units I think are are out there right now Bitcoin uh 14 million of those are illiquid people hold on to bitcoin so if we now have this Institutional Investor base moving more aggressively into Bitcoin uh at the margin uh the the supply relative to demand there's I think only three million in liquid Supply at the margin uh I think it could drive the price up much more than the doubling I've said just because of that imbalance so we we our confidence has increased in that in that forecast for 2030.
well the U.S dollar is at a 20-year High it should be noted that this is enabled by the crushing debt burden countries and the Emerging Markets are suffering from their U.S dollar dominated liabilities while the growth of these markets are the fastest in the world inflation is still a big problem here Kathy Wood believes we would see more investors from these economies hedging with Bitcoin hope you enjoyed watching before you leave please hit the like button and don't forget to subscribe see you next time
Comments 0