저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 추가 금리 인상 속에서 Schiff는 인플레이션이 장기화되고 연준이 결국 긴축을 포기해 다시 완화로 돌아설 것이며, 그때까지 시장은 정상 밸류에이션보다 낮게 거래될 것이라고 주장한다. 금리 상황: 연준이 기준금리를 75bp 인상해 3.75~4.00%로 올렸고, 네 번째 연속 75bp 인상이다. 2023년 중반까지 5%까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 시장 밸류에이션: 주가수익비율(PER)과 주가매출비율(PSR)은 역사적 평균보다 낮아져야 정상인데, 현재는 여전히 매우 비싸다. 투자자들이 연준을 믿지 않고 있다고 진단한다. 경기 전망: 금리 상승의 파급이 신용카드 등 저소득층에 더 크게 나타나며, 블룸버그 모델상 2023년 10월까지 경기침체 확률이 100%라는 분석을 인용한다. 인플레이션 전망: 연준이 2% 목표를 달성하지 못할 것이며 물가는 8%를 넘어 재상승할 것이라고 본다. 6월 9.2%가 정점이었다는 점을 언급하며 현재 8.2%도 충분히 낮지 않다고 평가한다. 연준 정책 전망: 인플레이션과의 싸움에서 연준이 결국 포기하고 제로금리와 양적완화(QE)로 회귀할 것이라고 예상한다. 이 경우에만 현재 밸류에이션이 정당화된다고 본다. 자산 선호: 인플레이션이 상수가 되면서 종이자산에서 실물자산으로 이동이 가속될 것이다. 성장주(나스닥류)보다 가치주(다우류)의 상대 강세가 두드러지며, 벽돌과 모르타르형 실물 사업, 생필품을 파는 가치 기업을 선호한다. 위험한 성장주는 피하라고 조언한다. 리스크: 연준이 인플레이션을 2%로 잡는 데 성공해 금리를 낮추지 않을 경우 Schiff의 전망은 틀린다는 점이 전제 조건으로 제시된다.
다듬은 글
Tyler a 75 basis point increase by the Federal Reserve bringing the target range for The fed's Benchmark interest rate to three and three quarters to four percent the decision for a fourth consecutive 75 basis point increase was unanimous but the statement does add a new flexibility on the pace of future rate increases they adjusted the pledge that the committee anticipates ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate adding in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time it's out and it's not good news the FED has just announced it's adding another 75 basis points to the federal interest rates bringing the FED interest rate range to 3.75 percent to 4.7 percent it's expected that the range could reach as high as 5 by mid-2023 and there's no pivot in sight Peter Schiff economic analyst and commentator had earlier hinted that we should not expect an easing anytime soon soon so what are his predictions let's listen to his warning our data shows that only eight percent of our viewers are subscribed to the channel what are you waiting for click that subscribe button now but if interest rates stay where they are or continue to move higher which is the most likely path at least given what the FED has been saying thus far and given the inflation numbers that we have then we have a long way to fall to get back to normal but there is no reason why the market should be priced at a normal valuation given the adverse circumstances that are now taking place we have the highest inflation in 40 years maybe the highest inflation ever the FED has a Monumental task in front of it if it's actually going to deliver on its promise to Bringing inflation down to two percent so if you believe the FED that they are every bit as Resolute in their commitment to bring inflation back down to two percent event and they're gonna do whatever it takes to achieve that goal then you have to concede that the market is not going to fall to a normal valuation but a below normal valuation in other words we should have a price to earnings ratio below the norm we should have a price to sales ratio below the average because obviously these averages mean that at times since 1995 the PE was lower than average or the price to sale was lower than average why because during those periods of time the markets were under adverse circumstances while I can't think of more adverse circumstances than the ones that the market is operating under right now and so if during times in that time period we had a market that was cheap relative to its historic averages we should have a market getting cheap again relative to its extorted averages but not only is the market not cheap not only is it not not averagely or fairly valued but it is still extremely expensive so we have a market price for Perfection and we have anything but perfection in the current circumstances and so what this is telling me is that investors still don't believe the Fed Jerome Powell head of the U.S federal reserve has made it clear in his last address that it is too early to pause raising rates current rate now stands at 3.75 to 4 percent as against three percent to 3.25 percent it was previously the previous Target was an average of 4.6 percent but Powell suggests that as it is now the interest rate could well go over this target before they can get inflation where they want it this would be the fourth consecutive rate hike this year and all has been by 75 basis points though there are suggestions that this rate of increase would slow down in the future the rate hike has come as no surprise as most Financial experts had anticipated it some analysts such as Peter Schiff had even accurately called the 75 basis point increase oddly the market reaction was positive to the announcement it seems the investors had braced for a hike and they had prepared to embrace it this rally would be short-lived because upon Powell's revelation of the fed's commitment to get inflation down to two percent the stock market dipped the reason for this decline is most likely because investors expected the FED would soon pivot probably after this latest hike but Powell's speech was not assuring enough it seems we still have a long way to go the high grades would affect investors and consumers in several ways the effect would trickle down and only get worse as it gets to the lower Echelon interest rates from the FED May stand at four percent but it would be more greatly felt at the credit card level because the rates would have massively compounded before getting to the borrowers at the household level this would affect not only people borrowing to spend but those who need credit for businesses there is now an increased sentiment that the economy would indeed enter a recession within the next 12 months according to models and analytics by Bloomberg there's a 100 probability the economy would be in a recession by October 2023.
Peter Schiff says as long as the FED is committed to getting inflation down to two percent we must expect a below average price valuation in the assets Market they believe that the FED will be able to quickly bring inflation down to two percent and after it does that it's going to be able to return interest rates back to their artificially low levels we're going to go back to zero or near zero and we're going to go back to quantitative easing because without zero percent interest rates in QE there is no way to justify the current valuation of today's market but if investors believe that they are wrong first of all they're wrong if they believe that the FED is actually going to bring inflation back down to two percent because it's not going to get anywhere near or two percent but they're also wrong to think that even if the FED succeeded in bringing inflation back down to two percent that we could have a return to those abnormally low interest rates and inflation would stay at two percent or lower neither of those outcomes are possible the only way the market could be correct in attributing these high valuations to today's market is if I'm right about what happens that the FED pivots and gives up to fight against inflation even though inflation never returns to two percent in fact inflation gets higher than the eight and three quarters which I think was the high so far on the CPI so inflation is going to break out the new highs yet the FED is going to give up that fight and it's going to go back to monetary stimulus even though inflation is getting worse Peter Schiff is not alone in predicting a grim future many experts believe that the fed's fight against inflation is futile this claims seems to be supported by how slowly the inflation rate is shrinking despite very aggressive rate hikes in June the inflation rate had peaked at 9.2 percent the highest it has been in the past 41 years yet after massive hikes the U.S has not witnessed in the past 41 years inflation still stands at 8.2 percent since the last report Mr Schiff is convinced that the FED cannot meet their two percent Target he believes that even if inflation comes down now it would only be temporary before it goes back to over eight percent inflation is going to drive the price of everything up including stocks but if I'm right about that happening then what you're going to see is the gains in the stocks like those that are in the Dow Jones and you're not going to see the gains in the NASDAQ type stocks that rotation and that Divergence in performance is going to accelerate in the environment that I see coming where we have the fed conceding the fight against inflation so inflation should wins and the FED loses and so investors are looking for real Hedges they want to get out of paper into real assets which would include ownership of real businesses but that would be ownership of businesses with real assets tangible assets that are selling products that people have to buy not products that people want to buy and that they only buy with the money they have left over after they finish buying all the stuff they have to buy so it's going to be back to basics bricks and mortar and it's going to be buying value selling growth as far as Peter Schiff is concerned inflation has come to stay and people have to adjust to it by investing in brick and mortar businesses that meet the demands of society and not risky growth stocks if you enjoyed this video then clicking the like button would be great don't forget to subscribe for more you don't want to miss out as the market gets more risky
Comments 0