저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: Cathie Wood는 연준이 곧 금리 인상을 멈추고 피벗(금리 인하)할 가능성이 높다고 보며, 비트코인과 혁신주에 대해 약세장이 끝나가고 있다고 낙관한다. 거시 지표 측면에서는 원자재 가격 하락이 두드러진다고 주장한다. 발틱건화물지수 65% 하락, 유가 29% 하락, 금 3% 하락, 구리 17% 하락, 목재 28% 하락, 은 9% 하락, D램 가격 33% 하락, 컨테이너보드 가격 53% 하락(전년 대비)을 근거로 들며, 옥수수만 27% 상승했다고 언급한다. 자재 가격 지수(MPI)도 4주 연속 하락했다고 한다. 인플레이션 전망으로는 연준이 12월에 50~75bp 추가 인상하고 2023년 초까지 긴축을 이어갈 수 있으며, 결국 기준금리가 약 5%까지 오를 수 있다고 전망한다. 다만 이는 이미 시장에 반영됐다고 본다. 연준 피벗 관련해서는 현재 데이터(지연지표 기반 정책)로는 연준이 긴축을 지속할 것이나, 시장 매도세가 위기 수준이라 결국 피벗이 불가피하며 그 폭도 클 것이라고 주장한다. 주식시장 측면에서는 미국 주식과 채권이 동반 하락해 투자자 손실이 2008~2009년보다 두 배 이상 크다고 언급한다. 이번 주 S&P500 -2.1%, 나스닥 -2.8%, 다우 -1.5%를 제시하고, 애플(-5%) 등 대형주 약세를 언급한다. 비트코인과 혁신 관련으로는 혁신주가 약세장 후반에 시장을 주도하는 경향이 있다고 보며, 비트코인은 최근 횡보하며 바닥을 다진 것으로 보고 약세장의 끝을 시사한다. 2022년 비트코인은 고점 대비 최대 68% 하락해 1만9천 달러 아래까지 떨어졌다고 설명한다. 리스크: 연준 긴축이 예상보다 길어질 경우 주식과 암호화폐가 추가 하락할 수 있으며, 피벗 시점과 강도는 불확실하다. 한국 투자자 관련 언급은 특별히 없음.
다듬은 글
75 basis points is coming it's built into the market already so far it's had no effect on inflation still north of eight percent so why would the FED stop I think people that think the fed's going to pause are dreaming and then you're probably looking at a situation where the FED goes another 50 possibly even another 75 basis points in December and probably keeps um it's put on the breaks in early 2023 as well so you could be looking at a scenario where the FED ultimately raises interest rates up towards five percent um over the next two to three quarters all eyes are on the Federal Reserve what is going to be their next move the decision they make next is going to determine the direction of the market in the coming weeks would they pivot or would they continue to increase rates if rates continue to increase then the stock market and probably the crypto Market would respond negatively as we've seen in previous months this would all depend on the new CPI inflation rate report Kathy Wood gives reasons why a pivot is necessary now before you proceed with the video click the Subscribe button and the notification Bell you don't want to miss our coming videos the Baltic Freight dry index which is just for dry goods down 65 percent oil down 29 percent and many people have been dismissing these and saying yeah but that's uh you know they went to Sky High prices you know they're still not down on a year-over-year basis that's not true anymore gold is down three percent copper is down 17 percent this is as of today uh Lumber is down 28 on a year-over-year basis uh corn is an exception uh it is up 27 again Ukraine being a big problem there we have silver down nine percent dram prices down 33.
uh the Baltic dry Freight index down 65 and oil oil oh yes oil and corn oil is up 14 that's of today it's had a big pop recently but we do think having come down from 130 dollars to ninety dollars it is in a downtrend mostly because of demand destruction there's another kind of esoteric price out there I remember it from my days uh diving deeply into economics um and it's a container board prices um this gives you a sense of um you know how tight uh the the Box Market is because of a huge amount of trade taking place uh so uh they are down uh 29 from their Peak and about 53 from a year ago so just taking the evidence um and putting it together like this there is a lot of data to be driving the FED which is what they say is happening but we don't think it's happening I just rattled off uh lots of there are indications that inflation is dwindling Commodities are experiencing deflation and the housing market is also in a deflationary trend because the cost of building materials is falling figures from the materials price index MPI showed a fall of another 1.9 percent most recently this made it a four consecutive week fall the MPI monitors 10 Commodities and 8 out of 10 of the these Commodities have their prices crashing in the past five weeks this could be signs that inflation is declining Kathy Wood gave a list of Commodities that she has been monitoring and thinks there's enough evidence that prices are falling across the board she addresses the price hike oil and corn as just reactions to the war still going on in Ukraine and points out that the year-to-date YTD price of oil still shows that the prices are falling in March of this year the market price index had peaked at 27.3 percent an all-time high we've not seen in decades but now a remarkable negative 3.8 percent on a YTD basis the war in Ukraine had caused the supply shock which led to massive price hikes especially in oil and food it seems after eight months of the war the world is adjusting to the supply shock and Alternate Supply chains are coming up to fill in the supply Gap this could be the reason why we're beginning to see prices falling oil price falling has become a concern that OPEC is now calling for its members to cut Supply so that oil prices can stabilize based on these Trends Kathy believes a Fed should start easing and cutting interest rates if they're indeed looking at the data markets are selling off across the board uh and that's very unusual It's associated with crises and more convincing evidence to us that the FED is too tight and that it will pivot and when it does it will do so we think significantly now first it might Simply Be rhetoric because they always like to tee us up for what the next moves are going to be and we haven't heard that rhetoric yet despite all the evidence I just shared with you but that evidence I just shared with you tells us that the FED is going to get the message loudly and clearly somehow and it may not be showing through in the numbers they want to see but it will it will they are huge lagging indicators they're basing policy on lagging indicators uh not what they're supposed to be doing anyway if you take in the U.S alone if you take equities and bonds and look at what's happened since the peak you will see that the the loss to investors is more than twice what we saw in 0809 that's how bad this is uh because uh because bonds are selling off with stocks this time last week the U.S stocks crashed yet again Apple taking a significant hit in this crash losing five percent as demand for the company's products dwindle there's a revived fear in Wall Street fueling negative sentiments as Traders fear the unpredictability of the direction stocks would go this month the S P 500 went down by 2.1 percent NASDAQ Composite lost 2.8 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a 1.5 percent hit there are hints from the Bank of America's research team the demand would likely worsen this suggestion has sent Wall Street into a panic Kathy Wood refers to this sell-off as unusual and says that it's evidence that the FED needs to ease up with its interest rates interestingly One Price indicator Association associated with Innovation is holding up beginning to hold up better than other prices and that's Bitcoin it's been interesting to see it Flatline in the last month uh While others other indicators are reaching for new lows now this is not surprising in the late stages of a bear Market in our experience Innovation starts to outperform in the late stages of a bear Market why does that happen it happens because Innovation is the new leadership Innovation solves problems Innovation solves the kinds of problems we have today supply chain food energy shortages think the genomic Revolution electric vehicles and so forth things seem to be looking up for cryptocurrencies as prices have been stabilizing in the past weeks while there's no significant rally there's also no significant fall in valuation especially for the big crypto such as Bitcoin Kathy Wood dubs this as the end of the bearish market cryptocurrency investors have had a rocky 2022 but we're now entering a time of the year that's usually good for crypto prices the past year has been one of the worst circles for Bitcoin losing as much as 68 from its peak price of sixty five thousand dollars it achieved in November last year to below nineteen thousand dollars several times this year is it too early to be optimistic let us have your thoughts in the comments and don't forget to give this video a thumbs up thanks for watching
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