저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers는 2022년 9월 시점에서 경기침체와 큰 하락장이 올 것이라고 경고한다. 저소득층은 물가·임대료 부담으로 타격을 받고 빈부격차가 더 벌어진다는 논리다. 증시 측면에서는 최근 4일간 S&P500이 200포인트 상승한 것이 시장이 선반영한 결과라며, 이후 큰 하락장이 올 수 있다고 본다. 과도한 비관이 큰 랠리를 만들 수 있으나 그것이 마지막 랠리가 될 것이라고 언급한다. 부채 측면에서는 2008년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증했고, 미국 국가부채는 약 30조 달러, 부채/GDP 비율은 2008년 68%에서 현재 120%로 올랐다고 지적한다. 부채가 달러 약세의 원인이 될 수 있다고 본다. 연준 측면에서는 2020년 팬데믹 이후 대차대조표가 4조 달러에서 9조 달러로 급증했고, 긴축 방향의 유동성 축소가 투자 위축과 기업 부실로 이어질 수 있다고 경고한다. 연준 관료들은 학계 출신이며 실패를 반복해 왔다고 비판한다. 달러 측면에서는 미국이 세계 최대 채무국임에도 위기 시 안전자산 수요로 달러가 강세를 보일 수 있으며, 그 강세가 과매수 버블이 될 수 있다고 말한다. 다만 달러를 대체할 통화는 현재로서는 찾기 어렵다고 본다. 전망 요지: 큰 약세장은 불가피하며 연준 정책이 실수할 가능성이 높다. 우크라이나 평화나 원자재 가격 하락 등으로 일시 랠리가 나올 수 있으나 그것이 마지막 랠리일 것이라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
it's the people at the bottom that are getting squeezed with higher gas prices higher food prices and rent so I think we're entering a recession unseen like any other where the bottom half are going to get devastated and those in the upper quarter to Upper 10 percent uh will spend less not do as well but pretty much weather the storm so this gap between the rich and the poor is going to get wider and wider that's why we rallied 200 s p points in the four days leading into today because the markets were driving on one side and the BLS hasn't yet captured that unfortunately the FED is also lagging and and how they are reacting to things they're driving also in the with the rear view mirror type mentality now they think the dollars a safe haven or historic reason it's not it's not we're the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but since people think it's a safe haven the dollar will have a big rally my get over price might turn into a bubble I hope I'm smart enough to sell but if that happens James Rogers Jr popularly known as Jim Rogers chairman of beeland interests incorporation and co-founder of quantum fund and Soros fund management is an accomplished American investor and a financial commentator when he speaks the financial gurus listen today we will have his take on the fumbling Equity markets and why he believes the FED are not to be trusted to properly manage the economy if you haven't already click the Subscribe button and the notification Bell we promise you up-to-date market reviews let's listen to Jim Rogers uh in my view what I said was that yes we will have a bear Market again someday and when we do it will be the worst in my lifetime you remember 2008 2009 we had a big problem well since because of too much debt since then the debt everywhere has skyrocketed it's staggering how much the debt everywhere in the world has gone up since 2009 so it has to be the worst in my lifetime I'm not trying to scare I'm just making a simple statement of fact the debt has Sky skyrocketed everywhere and we always have bear markets so the next one has to be very very bad has it started yet I in my view there's so much pessimism around that usually leads to something happening and causes a big rally if that happens it'll be the last rally if you ask me if we have peace in Ukraine or if the Federal Reserve says oh we're sorry who knows what we'll have a big rally and that'll probably be the last rally things were going well before the 2020 pandemic when productivity took a nosedive and the markets were rendered dormant with most businesses and international trades shut down the United States had to respond first to ease the suffering of the people and this meant digging in to raise liquidity despite a comatose GDP soon the fed's balance sheets move from a four trillion dollar deficit to a whopping nine trillion dollars in just the space of two years this deficit was caused by the fed's aggressive buy-off of treasury bills mortgage-backed Securities and corporate bonds the current Administration has come up with a 10-year plan to bring down the deficit through cut down measures that would see more money being freed for the FED with cuttings of about 1 trillion dollars annually at this rate we could be back to pre-coveted conditions in another three to four years there is a downside to these cutback measures the major one is a reduction in liquidity and reduction in liquidity means there would be investment contractions as there would be less investable funds in circulation vndr warns that trading liquidity would get to levels seen at the height of the market crises of March 2020 leading to what it calls a corporate distress but why is the US dollar strengthening despite a slowing economy Jim Rogers talks about this next I own a lot of US Dollars and the reason I do is because when the turmoil comes people look for a safe haven now they think the dollar is a safe haven for historic reason it's not it's not with the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but since people think it's a safe haven the dollar will have a big rally might get overpriced might turn into a bubble I hope I'm smart enough to sell it if that happens and your next question they should be what are you going to do with the money then and that's a very good question I look every day to find out what's going to be the next competitor for the US dollar if you know Dave please do not announce it do not announce it on the program send me a private email because I'm looking every day to figure out what it's going to be logically logically it would be the Chinese renmend me but the Chinese currencies of blocked currency you cannot have a world currency that's blocked so I don't know what it's going to be it should be recalled that the U.S entered a recession that was sparked by Bad Mortgages essentially bad debts Global debts domiciled in the US dollar which control Global markets is helping the US dollar strengthen Mr Rogers believes that debt would also be the undoing of the US dollar this is because the US is actually the leading nation in debt which has gone up about 300 percent from 2008 to 2022 now standing at about 30 trillion dollars national debt is is not actually the big issue the big issue is the debt to GDP ratio it would interest you to know that in 2008 the debt to GDP ratio was just 68 percent and now it stands at 120 percent an indication that the nation is basically on life support at the moment I mean I've been around a long time and there have been very few good Central Bankers in history anywhere Americans had I can remember two in the last 50 or 60 years India had a very good Central Banker five or six years ago but he's gone now they're just not very these are these are bureaucrats these are academics none of these guys are very small all they want to do is get a government job and keep a government job they don't care about you and me they care about getting a nice sweet government job they don't know what they're doing and yes they will probably get it wrong you know that a few weeks ago a few months ago they were saying there's no inflation and they said oh well it's transitory inflation I mean if you listen to these guys if you go back and read them throughout history you say oh my God how could these and they all have fancy ivy league degrees they have great private League degrees which means you should be very worried about them because they don't mean they don't know anything even more by the way I have some ivy league degrees so when I say that I I speak from experience I speak from experience but they will get it wrong as I said before maybe what will happen you know oil prices grain prices have been coming down if there's peace in Ukraine many prices will come down the central banks let's say see we save the world and then they'll start loosening up again or they won't be so tight again and that will lead to that rally I mentioned before the last rally man you have to watch them because they have certainly good influence and sometimes big influence but do not listen to them and think they know what they're doing just like Mr Rogers who expresses fear on the fed's competence funds manager Kathy Wood had earlier raised the alarm that the FED is focused on using the Paul vachler strategy which ended up dragging the US to its worst recession since the second world war you can check out our other videos to listen to other Financial experts address the errors in the FED strategy how soon do you think we would see a wholesome economic recovery and what path do you think we have to take to see it leave a comment below and don't forget to give this video a thumbs up thanks for watching
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