Cathie Wood Bitcoin Prediction: "People Have NO IDEA What's Coming..." (Time To BUY)

요약 보기

캐시 우드는 비트코인을 위험자산이면서 지역은행 위기 때 오른 안전자산 성격도 있다고 보고, 기관의 낮은 상관관계 자산 편입(최적 비중 약 5%)을 권한다. 코인베이스는 규제 준수 측면에서 강점이 있으며, 리플 판결 등으로 현물 ETF 승인 가능성이 높다고 본다. 비트코인 공급 한도(2,100만 개)와 기관 참여 확대로 장기적으로 가격 상승을 확신한다. 다만 단기 변동성은 인정하고 5년 이상 관점을 강조한다. 일부 이익실현(트리밍)은 포트폴리오 관리 차원이라고 설명한다. 기술적 분석가 Michael van de Poppe의 $250,000 전망 등 타인 발언도 자막에 언급되나 채점 대상이 아니다.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. 이 영상의 원문이 영어 자막이라 영어 그대로 다듬어 정리합니다.

02. Encouraging asset allocators to think seriously about Bitcoin: it is not only a risk-on asset. During the regional bank crisis last year, it appreciated as regional banks were falling apart. So it has become a flight-quality asset as well. Think about that: risk-on and risk-off. It is volatile, to be sure, but risk-on and risk-off, that's quite something.

03. Institutions by and large have not allocated to Bitcoin yet, and it is a new asset class, so they have to consider the ramifications from a diversification point of view. Diversifying into a new asset class that is not highly correlated with other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and others, usually increases returns per unit of risk, which is what allocators want.

04. Also, the number of Bitcoins outstanding right now is a little over 19.5 million. The maximum number we will ever see is 21 million. So this scarce asset is getting scarcer, and institutions have not even gotten involved yet in any big way.

05. Coinbase is, from a regulatory point of view, the most compliant exchange out there. We think the odds are high, and the reason we say that is because of the Ripple win and the Grayscale win, but especially the Ripple win, and what we learned about securities and the timing of issuance versus trading on a platform. When something starts as a security and evolves into something else, not a security, that matters.

06. Coinbase has filed for a direct listing on the NASDAQ, which could make it the first publicly traded crypto exchange in the US. The company reported 1.3 billion dollars in revenue and 322 million dollars in profit in 2020, with 43 million verified users and 90 billion dollars in assets on its platform.

07. Ripple has scored another partial victory in its fight with the SEC. A court ruled that the sale of XRP on exchanges and through algorithms did not constitute investment contracts, but the institutional sale of XRP did violate federal securities laws, the court said.

08. Looking at the history of Bitcoin, the optimal allocation on average over this time period has been roughly 5%, maybe a little below 5%. When we first got exposure to Bitcoin through GBTC in 2015, the optimal allocation would have been less than half a percent. But it has been rising.

09. Yeah, as you know, we do five-year-plus forecasts, so we're focused on how institutions, countries, and companies might use this new asset class for different reasons. We think we've just begun, from a price appreciation point of view. This is part of a journey.

10. I do believe that the SEC giving the green light has encouraged institutions to think carefully about it and have a point of view. We're in the learning phase right now, and over time I think this movement into the new asset class will continue to push up the price. Whether it happens this year, there are always short-term causes for volatility, so a one-year period is pretty short. But over a five-year period, our confidence is very high.

11. 기술적 분석가 마이클 반 드 포프(Michael van de Poppe)는 이번 사이클에서 비트코인이 25만 달러에 도달할 수 있다고 강세 전망을 제시했습니다. 다만 5만 달러와 5만 8천 달러에서 저항이 있을 수 있고, 그 뒤 신고가를 돌파할 것이라고 말했습니다.

12. 한편 물가 데이터는 특히 공급망 교란과 노동력 부족이 지속되면서 경제의 인플레이션 압력에 대한 우려를 낳고 있습니다. 일부 분석가들은 연준이 예상보다 빨리 통화정책을 긴축해야 할 수도 있고, 그렇지 않으면 물가에 대한 신뢰와 통제력을 잃을 위험이 있다고 경고합니다.