저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
중국 부동산 부채위기(에버그란데 등 디폴트)가 글로벌 경제로 전이될 우려가 있으며, 유럽도 일부 지표상 침체 국면이라고 진단. 주식시장은 명목(nominal) 성장이 아닌 실질 성장에 반응하며, 1970년대 인플레이션 주도 실적 상승을 매수 기회로 착각한 것이 큰 실수였다고 강조. 디플레이션 환경에서는 기업의 가격결정력 상실과 매출 역성장이 위험이라고 경고. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
we are not isolated from the rest of the world I've been saying it's going to be very confusing very confusing and uh this is just one indication the worst mistake they had made in their lives prices started going crazy we had the Oil Embargo quadrupling of oil prices most economic indicators were in nominal terms they didn't break out real from Price or real from inflation k invest in this video Cathy will share her views on the debt crisis in China's property sector the inflation and growth Dynamics and the revenue growth challenges she will address some of the key questions and challenges that many investors face such as how does she distinguish between nominal and real growth emphasizing its importance how does she anticipate negative Revenue growth and what factors could cause it how does she adjust her portfolio strategy identifying opportunities and threats how does China's property debt crisis impact the global economy posing risks for multinationals in Emerging Markets perhaps the debt load associated with 20 years of BU the dip property um transactions in China um reached an untenable Point uh many many stat statistics out of China are are negative and Europe by some measures is in recession so maybe these multinationals are suffering more because of what's going on in the rest of the world um but I do think we are not isolated from the rest of the world so again lots of confusion and anyone who's been listening to in the know for a while um knows that uh I I've been saying it's going to be very confusing very confusing and uh this is just one indication Zell China's property sector which accounts for about 25% of the country's GDP has been facing a liquidity Crunch and a wave of defaults by developers the most prominent case is ever Grand the world's most indebted property developer which owes more than $300 billion to creditors suppliers and home buyers the crisis has raised fears of a contagion effect on the financial system and the broader economy both in China and abroad the Chinese government has been trying to contain the crisis by imposing stricter regulations on the property sector such as the three red lines policy that Limits The Leverage ratios of developers the government has also been injecting liquidity in the banking system and providing support to some local governments and state-owned Enterprises however the government has also signaled that it will not bail out the trouble developers and that it expects them to resolve their own problems um when I first started in the business um in the late 70s I was in college um I Heard portfolio managers back then talking about the worst mistake they had made in their lives their professional lives um in the early 70s after we after we went off the gold exchange standard and all hell broke loose prices started going crazy we had the Oil Embargo quadrupling of oil prices um most economic indicators were in nominal terms they didn't break out real from Price or real from inflation and uh because of that they looked at earnings exploding and they could not understand why the market was going down and they kept buying the dip buying the dip it was a big mistake because what was happening back then was uh inflation was the only reason earnings were going up and the market doesn't pay for uh earnings caused by inflation and so that's when we started separating inflation from real growth and we've been there ever since nominal GDP is the market value of the final production of goods and services within a country in a given period using that Year's prices wheel GDP is nominal GDP adjusted for changes in the price level using prices from a base year real GDP is a more accurate measure of the actual output and growth of an economy as it removes the effect of inflation or deflation inflation is the general increase in the prices of goods and services over time which reduces the purchasing power of money inflation can be caused by various factors such as excess demand Supply shocks money supply growth or expectations inflation can have positive or negative effects on the economy depending on its level duration and causes some of the effects include redistribution of income and wealth changes in relative prices and impacts on saving and investment tell us in the comments what you think is the cause of current inflation today we might be on the opposite side of that problem now most uh portfolio managers as they're gauging the health of the economy they look at real GDP and and inflation is just a separate uh metric that they know uh the market doesn't pay for so you know um well that's okay until you run into negative money growth caused by I mean negative Revenue growth caused by uh falling prices companies losing pricing power and uh unit volumes not being that strong deflation is the general decrease in the prices of goods and services over time which increases the purchasing power of money deflation can be caused by various factors such as insufficient demand technological progress productivity growth or monetary contraction deflation can have positive or negative effects on the economy depending on its level duration and causes some of the effects include redistribution of income and wealth changes in relative prices and impacts on saving and investment pricing power is the ability of a company to raise or maintain the prices of its products or services without losing customers or market share pricing power depends on various factors such as the elasticity of demand the degree of competition the quality and differentiation of the products or services and the brand loyalty and reputation of the company pricing power can affect the profitability and growth of a company as well as its valuation and stock performance
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