저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인은 디지털 금이자 위험회피 자산으로, 지역은행 위기 때 상승한 사례를 들며 안전자산 성격을 주장. 현물 비트코인 ETF 도입 후 수요 증가 및 비트코인/금 비율 상승 흐름(대체 효과)을 강조. 장기 보유자 비중이 높다는 점도 근거로 제시. 1월 비농업고용(35.3만)은 강했으나 가계조사 고용은 감소해 두 지표의 괴리를 지적하며 고용 수치의 신뢰성에 의문 제기.
다듬은 글
that's a booming economy or is it many people call Bitcoin digital gold uh we would put it in that category a store of value uh a riskof asset uh and last year during the Regional Bank crisis in March uh Bitcoin uh shot up 40% as the K the Regional Bank index was imploding and here again the Regional Bank index is acting up we are seeing Bitcoin catch a bit again k invest in this video Kathy will share her views on the Bitcoin to gold ratio the Bitcoin ETF and the non-farm payroll employment she will address some of the key issues that many people are concerned about such as how does the Bitcoin to gold ratio gauge bitcoin's value and performance during crisis what impact did Bitcoin ETF have on demand prices and Trader behaviors how does the non-farm payroll report indicate the US economy State and why doubt its accuracy I'm going to show the Bitcoin to gold ratio um um many people call Bitcoin digital gold uh we would put it in that category a store of value uh a risk off asset uh and last year during the Regional Bank crisis in March uh Bitcoin uh shot up 40% as the K the Regional Bank index was imploding and here again the Regional Bank index is acting up uh and after uh a little bit of a correction uh after 11 ETFs were introduced um we are seeing Bitcoin catch a bid again uh so this idea that it's a flight to Quality or a flight to safety uh is reasserting itself here Kathy Wood talked about the Bitcoin to gold ratio which measures how many ounces of gold are needed to buy one Bitcoin she said that Bitcoin is a store of value and a risk-off asset and that it has performed well during times of Crisis and uncertainty she also said that Bitcoin has gained more demand after the introduction of Bitcoin ETF which provide an easier way to access the cryptocurrency the SEC approved the first physical Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 after years of rejections and delays these ETF track the spot price of Bitcoin unlike the previous ETF that were based on bitcoin Futures contracts the first 10 physical Bitcoin ETF launched on January 11 2024 and attracted billions of dollars in inflows also the Bitcoin to gold ratio has fluctuated significantly over the past 2 years reflecting the volatility and Divergence of the two assets in November 2021 the ratio reached a peak of 35 meaning that one Bitcoin was worth 35 ounces of gold in 20123 however the ratio dropped to 15 as gold prices Rose and Bitcoin prices fell a Zell uh the reason we believe Bitcoin went down after the ETF um after the ETFs were introduced is because there was a lot of anticipatory buying before uh before Bitcoin or the ETFs came out uh there was a bit of the sell on the news these are the trading types who uh just are are very opportunistic in that way um as you know or if you've been listening to in the know uh 15 million of the 19 a half million Bitcoin outstanding are in what we call strong hands they're they haven't moved their Bitcoin in more than 155 days uh so um and and this chart uh just shows you that even relative to Gold uh Bitcoin has been rising it is there's now a substitution into into Bitcoin and uh we think that is going to continue now that there is a much easier way less FR friction filled way to access Bitcoin Kathy woodier talked about the reason why Bitcoin prices went down after the launch of the Bitcoin ETF which she attributed to the anticipatory buying and the sell on the news behavior of some Traders she also said that most of the Bitcoin Supply is in the hands of long-term holders who have not moved their coins for more than 155 days she also said that Bitcoin has been rising relative to gold and that there is a substitution effect into Bitcoin Kathy Wood is still investing large portions of her wealth in Bitcoin and she expects that it may reach $1 million by 2025 she has also launched several exchange traded funds that invest in companies and Technologies related to cryptocurrencies the concept of substitution into Bitcoin which means that investors are shifting their preferences from traditional assets like gold to digital assets like Bitcoin has been debated by various experts and analysts some argue that Bitcoin offers advantages such as higher returns lower correlation and greater Innovation While others contend that gold offers stability tangibility and proven history what do you prefer in investing in more tell us in the comments the headlines uh were very strong uh non-farm payroll employment came out at 353,000 um and uh that was nearly double what was expected uh 185,000 and even more important perhaps if you believe these numbers uh is that there was an upward revision to the previous month 17 18,000 uh upward revision to 333,000 uh that's pretty astonishing so the the two months together December and January which are very seasonal months of course uh when you combine them uh the employment was up 686,000 that's a booming economy or is it well household employment so non-farm payroll uh surveys corporations companies and household employment surveys households and tends to capture more small businesses uh so household employment was down 31,000 in January and the previous month December it was down 683 th000 so the combination of those two lths down 74,000 so which is right







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