저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 지역은행 위기가 연준의 급격한 금리 인상 때문이었다고 보며, 연준이 스트레스를 인식해 곧 금리를 인하할 것이라고 주장. 월마트 가격 인하를 디플레이션 신호로 보고, 저금리는 위험자산·비트코인에 우호적이라 평가. 비트코인은 2030년 기본 시나리오 64만 달러, 강세 시나리오 150만 달러 제시. 게리 겐슬러 SEC 위원장의 선거 후 퇴진 가능성과 이더리움 현물 ETF 승인 가능성 상승을 언급. 뱅가드의 ARK ETF 차단을 큰 실수로 평가하며 피델리티 수혜를 전망.
다듬은 글
after this election I don't think Chairman Gensler will remain at the SEC. What I love about innovation is that it's the great leveling field. I think one of the reasons for the regional bank crisis was the Fed raising rates faster than it ever has. Up 24-fold in 17 months, never seen anything close to that. Chairman Volcker increased interest rates twofold, not 24-fold. So that was part of the regional bank crisis. And notice Bitcoin went up during that. Flexibility, agility, opportunity, that's the most important thing.
Cathie Wood is the superstar investor who knows how to spot the next big thing. She is the founder and CEO of ARK Invest, a firm that invests in disruptive technologies. She will tell us why she thinks the SEC chair will change after the election and why that's good for innovation. She will also tell us why the Fed's interest rate hikes caused a crisis for regional banks and why Bitcoin thrived during that time. She will also share her vision of how to be flexible, agile, and opportunistic in a changing world. You don't want to miss this interview with one of the most brilliant and visionary people in the industry, so get ready as we dive into the conversation with Kathy Wood.
I think one of the reasons for the regional bank crisis was the Fed raising rates faster than it ever has, up 24-fold in 17 months. We've never seen anything close to that. Chairman Volcker increased interest rates twofold, not 24-fold. So that was part of the regional bank crisis, and notice Bitcoin went up during that. It probably was anticipating the financing program the Fed put in place, which was a bit of a jog toward easing, and then it reversed course.
So we think the Fed is going to cut rates now. There are a lot of confusing economic data. We hear something from companies and something very different from the government in terms of economic activity. They're not matching up at all, and I find that very interesting. I think the Fed is going to figure out that there is much more stress in the system. The regional bank crisis was the first sign of it, and we'll get other reminders. They will move into rate cutting.
What we really think is going to happen is that it's going to be less about real economic indicators and more about price deflation. Walmart has said we're going to have to cut prices. That's deflation, not even disinflation. I believe the Fed is going to be shocked at broad-based price deflation this year. They're using inflation as their primary gauge now, and they're not as focused on real economic activity because inflation has come down even without a recession. I think we've been in a rolling recession, but nonetheless, inflation is the primary variable they're watching. We think there's going to be deflation, so they'll get to 2%, and it'll keep falling. So they'll lower interest rates, and that will be very good for risk assets, Bitcoin among them.
It was interesting. I think it was late in the fourth quarter, or earlier in January, that Bitcoin led the market. So we're watching Bitcoin now. Of course, we're having a sell-the-news moment after the 11 Bitcoin ETFs were approved, and I don't know how far that's going to go. This is high-frequency trading, people getting in just for that short boost and then getting out. But institutions and these retail platforms are going to start moving in, and then we'll see the scarcity value.
What is the price target? We have everything focused on the long term, but it takes short terms to make up a long term. By 2030, our base case, which we've published, says we believe Bitcoin, now closing in on $40,000, will be at $640,000 by 2030. The Bitcoin ETFs have increased the probability of our bull case, which is $1.5 million. If you want to see the building blocks of that, you can look at Big Ideas 2023, which we published last January. We're about to publish 2024, and you'll see in Big Ideas how we get to those two cases.
After this election, I don't think Chairman Gensler will remain at the SEC. Whoever is elected, I think he has aspirations for some kind of political appointment, so he may go for that reason. If Joe Biden is reelected, he may go, or he will go altogether if a Republican is nominated. The SEC could drag its feet, but I think the court cases have spoken pretty loudly. The Coinbase hearing will bring lots of information about what is and is not a security during that trial. So I do think that raises the odds of an Ethereum spot ETF approval. Gensler could be in the way, but we do think it will be approved.
Kathy Wood shares her views on the regional bank crisis, the Fed's interest rate policy, the Bitcoin ETFs, and the SEC's stance on Ethereum. She says the regional bank crisis was caused by the Fed raising rates too fast and too high, which hurt the value of banks' assets and made them vulnerable to bank runs. She compares this to the Volcker era, when the Fed raised rates much less and more gradually. Bitcoin benefited from the regional bank crisis as it anticipated the Fed's easing program and acted as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. She says Bitcoin is a global, rules-based digital monetary system that is very scarce and valuable.
She adds that the Fed is going to cut rates soon as it realizes there is more stress in the system and a risk of deflation, not inflation. Walmart's plan to cut prices is a sign of deflation, which will shock the Fed. Deflation will make the Fed lower its inflation target and stimulate the economy. Lower interest rates will be good for risk assets, especially Bitcoin, which she predicts will reach $640,000 by 2030 in her base case and $1.5 million in her bull case, based on her Big Ideas reports, which she publishes every year. She thinks SEC Chair Gensler will leave after the election, either to pursue a political career or because of a change in administration. She says this could make it easier for Ethereum to get a spot ETF approval, as the SEC could be less strict and more influenced by the court cases and the Coinbase hearings. She says Ethereum is not a security and deserves to be regulated as a commodity.
Merrill is beginning to understand that Vanguard has made a mistake. Merrill has actually said, "No, no, we aren't banning it, we're evaluating it." Merrill is very conservative, and it was the last platform to approve our ETF strategies, but once they do approve, they're a powerhouse. So they're very careful. I think this is a massive strategic mistake. I do believe the next leadership of Vanguard, whenever that is, will change its policy, because what they're doing is preventing their investors from accessing a new asset class. Their role is to facilitate access to all financial asset classes. I think many people are leaving Vanguard. I think Fidelity is the biggest beneficiary, and as I understand it, Fidelity is actively courting them. I don't think Merrill wants to fall into the same category.
Kathy Wood criticizes Vanguard for banning her ETFs from its platform, saying it is a huge mistake that will cost them customers and market share. She adds that Vanguard is blocking its investors from accessing a new asset class, which is innovation. Kathy says Vanguard's role is to facilitate access to all financial asset classes, not to restrict them. She praises Fidelity for being more open and supportive of her ETFs and says it is the biggest beneficiary of Vanguard's decision, actively courting the investors leaving Vanguard. She adds that Merrill is more conservative but not as extreme as Vanguard.
Philosophically, I feel UBI, universal basic income, would kill a part of the incentive system that has really made America the innovation engine of the world. Flexibility, agility, and opportunity are the most important things. What I love about innovation is that it's the great leveling field. My father, with a sixth-grade education, immigrated and went into the American Air Force. He fell into the radar rabbit hole. No one knew more than my father, and guess what? He made a great living for his family. I think that's what innovation does if you go for it. It will open up a lot of new opportunities. Like you said, folks have to really do their homework and look at whether they are in the path of disruption, but it also presents an opportunity to invest and create wealth.
Kathy Wood says UBI would kill the incentive system that has made America the innovation engine of the world. She says flexibility, agility, and opportunity are the most important things for innovation. She shares a personal story: her father, who had only a sixth-grade education, became a radar expert in the American Air Force and made a good living for his family. That's what innovation does, she says. It opens up new opportunities for anyone who goes for it. She advises people to do their homework and see whether they are in the path of disruption or can benefit from it, and she sees innovation as an opportunity to invest and create wealth.
And in the financial services industry, watch out. As you know, Jamie Dimon is, as anybody out there knows, very opposed to Bitcoin. Well, guess what? It's because these are the financial rails that are going to derail them in many ways. Jamie and JPMorgan...
Kathy Wood calls out Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, for being very hostile to Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value. She thinks he is afraid of the disruption Bitcoin will cause to the traditional financial system, which he dominates. She says Bitcoin will challenge the financial rails JPMorgan relies on.
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