저자: Kevin · 외국인
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중동 긴장 속 Brent가 95 아래에서 버티는 것은 시장이 이란 전쟁 우려를 넘어섰다는 신호로 해석. 트럼프의 이란 추가 타격 발언은 유가 상승·단기 매도 압력 요인. CPI 근원 지표가 예상(0.3)보다 낮은 0.2로 나와 Warsh가 금리를 눌러 앉힐 것으로 전망. 유동성 문제(OpenAI·Anthropic IPO, SpaceX IPO 대기 자금)가 단기 약세 요인이며, 나스닥 선물 675 부근을 저점 매수 후보로 제시. 경제 전반은 낙관적이나 수개월 조정이 최대 리스크.
다듬은 글
Honestly, after these Donald Trump comments, I have to say really impressive that Brent has not gone above 95. It's kind of a sign that the market is over worrying about the Iran war. Despite these comments though, we've got some other problems going on in the market. So, let's talk about those. And look how freaking beautiful this is.
All right, we just heard from Donald Trump who has I guess this here of his ear shot and some poo coming out. But anyway, quick update on what's going on. Donald Trump says we're going to be hitting Iran very hard. A part of this is beyond the retaliation for what we've had with the Apache that was hit yesterday, reportedly by a drone, a Shahed drone, like one of those 136s or 139s from Iran.
But Iran has actually not claimed responsibility for that attack. Donald Trump yesterday struck Iran because of that Apache that was hit. That was over the Strait of Hormuz, which they've regularly been flying there mostly to help kind of patrol the area. We've seen more ships come through. And the idea is that you have this sort of unspoken Yeah, we're here making things safe.
Come on, let's keep going through. Which of course, Besson and Trump have been talking up how great it is that Hey, things are going good. See, traffic is getting better in the Strait of Hormuz. We're recovering. Everything's good. Let the markets pump. Remember, markets going up covers all sin of tariffs or trade wars or new wars or whatever, actual wars.
Problem now is those retaliatory strikes for that Apache helicopter strike it didn't really accomplish anything because now apparently Donald Trump is saying we are actually going to ramp up attacks on Iran even more. Issue with that is obviously the potential risk that we're going to see oil prices spike back up.
Our prior resistance levels were about $120 on Brent crude. We're, you know, now we've been floating in the 90s, which has been good. And surprising because oil inventories are actually relatively low across the world. Uh the supply inventory shortage and oil bobbing around the 90s is actually relatively bullish because you know, future prices are still pricing in a drop of oil down to about the 72-ish dollar range in early 2027, which is good because that's going to be the ammunition Kevin Warsh uses to try to anchor down interest rates.
Let's talk about those in a moment. Quick note, got a nod from the Pope today, which if you look at my Instagram post, I'm or even X, uh real me Kevin on X or meet Kevin uh on uh Instagram, you'll get to see my nod from the Pope. Pretty cool. I'm pretty sure when he was nodding, probably shouldn't say it.
I'm not going to say it. I'm not going to say he said go to meetkevin.com and use the coupon code because it expires on Thursday because that would be blasphemous and we're not going to do that. So, instead, we're just going to focus on Warsh and CPI. CPI data obviously came out this morning. Yeah, hot on the headline, but the core number was actually better than expected.
Point two, the expectation was point three. That's good. Uh Kevin Warsh is going to weaponize this. He is going to anchor rates down. So many people are convinced rates are going up uh as a result, you know, markets are in part selling down because of that, but there's also a liquidity issue. We've been talking about this for days.
The liquidity issue has been really obvious. We've got the OpenAI IPO, uh Anthropic IPOs to prepare for. Anthropic, by the way, just released their uh Mythos Mythos Mythos, I think it's called, model which you can use as long as you don't ask biological or cybersecurity questions. Uh it's fable and you can set it to fable uh and then the high mode if you really want their deep think version.
I haven't really noticed a deep difference on it, which doesn't surprise me because I think most of these models will end up being commoditized anyway, which makes me very uninterested in investing in any of the LLM companies, but I do like what AI can end up doing for banking, finance, advertising, otherwise, but you know, that's a little bit more theoretical on some of my long-term investments and the long-term deflation theories.
But, point being here going back to war is obviously, if we do end up going back to war as Donald Trump threatens, that negotiations have been tap tap tap moving along. In other words, in English, he's basically saying, "Look, we've been negotiating for months since Well, it's 2 months since the beginning of the ceasefire.
We haven't really gotten anywhere. They always say they're going to sign the deal, but then they don't." Why don't they? Because Israel basically tells Trump, "Dude, we're not going to stop attacking Lebanon uh to attack Hezbollah inside of Lebanon, right?" And Trump's like, "Come on, guys, you got to stop." And they're like, "Yeah, no, sorry, we're not going to." And that's one of the red lines for Iran.
Obviously, in addition to that, we have the nuclear threat, which Donald Trump says the nuclear uranium highly rich uranium is well buried under either Fordow or Esfahan. Other people think, "No, it's not buried. It's actually at Pickaxe Mountain, which has been untouched by Operation Midnight Hammer and the last attacks, which is a red flag, obviously, because it means the nuclear dust is still out there, which reiterates why Well, is reiterated by the fact that Donald Trump says, "Oh, uh you know, I I that nuclear dust, by the way, I I'm I'm not doing the accent right today.
I don't really want it going into China or to Russia." Okay, well, if you don't really want it to go into China or Russia, that means it is available and accessible, and that's a red flag because we still haven't solved the nuclear issue, right? So, obviously, we're not getting anywhere on negotiations, which doesn't doesn't help the market, right?
It hurts the oil market. Means oil price is higher. The big issue here isn't Iran, though. In my opinion, the Iran war is not really what's generating the massive issue in markets right now. Obviously, going back to strikes is going to sell or create some sell pressure. This morning in the Alpha report, we were calling for potentially puts down to 675 on the Qs if certain things happened this morning, and we were definitely leaning more bearish than bullish today and so far the market's selling off even true before this new we're going to strike Iran very hard talk.
I do think regarding Iran Donald Trump is likely to taco even if we go back into motion with strikes and I think economically things are still pretty good. The worst thing that could happen to this economy and we've been talking about this in the alpha board the worst thing that could happen to this economy is we get a sell-off for a few months.
You know, a week of a sell-off before the SpaceX IPO and then a recovery means nothing. It doesn't matter. I I'm not I'm not going to buy the SpaceX IPO at IPO. I don't think you should either. I think if you can get an allocation whatever you can get an allocation for you should buy but you probably want to try to slip out of that before the market bleeds but that's just sort of my commentary on that.
Kevin Warsh is going to use CPI prints like what we just got better than expectations on core especially which matters most to help yields anchor down. I don't see him going up. I also don't see Jerome Powell pushing for rates up. And then on top of all of that when the suits go bearish I like to look for opportunities to to buy dips around low levels.
675 on the triple Q is probably a good next level to pay attention to. So, wrapping all of that up together. We got Donald Trump saying we're going to strike Iran very hard. It's temporarily going to drive oil prices up will lead a little bit to more lead to a little bit more pressure on the markets.
We already have pressure on the markets because people are using their cash liquidity for this false hope of getting access to SpaceX shares. My opinion obviously could be wrong about that. I think that creates a bearish Wednesday, Thursday and obviously what we've seen so far with failures on a certain on a on our line so to speak.
I do want to respond to one comment. Yes, I read the comments. By the way, you're welcome to join us on the Meet Kevin app. You can leave some comments and post some discussion board uh if you want. Download the Be Kevin app and you can chat in there. Uh but um if I'm a little video, you want to be in it.
Uh but um what what we want to comment on is somebody left a comment and said, "Hey, the lines are fake. You know, lines don't mean anything." And I just want to respond to that and say, I thought that as well in the past. But the lines are really a lot of traders together noticing a similar pattern and then they buy and sell around those lines.
Uh and so they actually do work. The Fibonacci retracement lines So the most basic the technical analysis is or the more basic it is, the better it works. So it's sort of like a self-fulfilled prophecy, if you will. It's not magic or juju. I think when we report the lines in the alpha report because we do, you know, both short-term, medium-term, and long-term trades, that's what they
good news is that most components of inflation are stabilizing. For example, core inflation excluding housing, relatively stable. Although it's sort of bobbing around. If you look at Nick Tim on X while you're looking at my Poke Shoutout, you'll see that. Uh if you uh also look at core goods themselves.
So just goods where we would expect to see tariff inflation, we actually had hotter core goods inflation last summer. Of course, the problem right now that we're facing is well, an energy shock combined with an artificial intelligence buildout. So not ideal, but these are components that of course we expect to be relatively transitory.
I hate using that word because I always get flamed in the comments when I mention it. But I believe that Kevin Warsh is going to utilize not that word, but a very similar strategy for saying, "Hey, like we're not going to raise rates. We're going to anchor." So economically, I'm comfortable with what I'm seeing so far in the ADP data on the weekly.
I'm comfortable with what I'm seeing on the monthly. Comfortable with what I'm seeing with earnings, which have been very good. Comfortable with what I'm seeing on inflation. Actually seeing as we would expect this summer starting to see some of those inflation numbers actually come and down as we lap those tariff inflation numbers from last year.
That's good. All going according to plan. Obviously, liquidity shocks such as what we have now with SpaceX and what we have with oil and the fact that again people I think are waiting for their SpaceX allocation which they're not going to get. Yes, those are going to lead to short-term buying opportunities.
I personally am a fan of taking advantage of these and buying up. But maybe you're not. And and and that's okay because I do think in the very short term could be opportunities to short. I think if we continue to go red going into the SpaceX IPO and worse through the SpaceX IPO, we could actually have quite a few weeks of red to come.
So, no crystal ball here, but fundamentally for the economy, as long as we don't have a multi-month sell-off I'm bullish on the economy. More bullish than I have been. As far as shorter term, yes, if hardware peaks out, that means we're moving on to a different cycle. If we move on to a different cycle we don't know what it's going to be.
I hope it's software stocks. I hope that's next, but it may not be. So, we'll see. Anyway, thanks so much for watching. Uh I'll keep you updated on the news. See you in the next one. Goodbye. Uh Jack, shout out your channel. What's your channel in case anybody wants to check out your channel? What channel do you have?
Did you post a video? Yeah. Yeah, what's your channel? Meet Jack. Where'd you get that idea from? Here. Oh. Meet Jack.
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