저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 시장 급락에도 강세 전망을 유지하며, 오늘 같은 전면 하락장은 매도가 아닌 매수 기회라고 주장한다. 강세 근거: 선행지표상 인플레이션이 예상보다 빠르게 둔화되고 있으며, 3월 브레이크이븐 인플레이션 기대치(6~12개월 선물)가 오늘 오히려 하락했다. 시장은 인플레이션 추세에 더 민감하다는 입장. 투자 전략: 연초부터 선호해 온 FANG(빅테크)과 산업재를 유지하고, 에너지는 3위 정도로 상대적으로 덜 선호하나 상반기에는 더 어렵다고 봄. Mike(Mike Wilson 등 패널)는 오늘 하락을 금리 경로 재평가에 따른 반사적 반응으로 보며 기술적으로는 '위태롭지만 치명적이지 않다'고 평가. 섹터 및 리스크: 금융(특히 지역은행)이 가장 부진하고 부동산도 약세. 지역은행 ETF는 수년 만의 저점 부근에서 주요 지지선을 시험 중이며, 과거에도 헤드페이크가 있었다는 점에서 신호 해석은 엇갈림. 금리 인상 관련: 50bp 인상이 가격에 반영될 필요가 있으나, 1970년 이후 14번의 연준 인상 사이클 중 11번은 인상 기간 중에도 주식이 신고가를 기록했다고 설명. 경기침체 및 장단기 금리차: 작년 예상된 침체 지표가 아직 나타나지 않았으며, 인플레이션이 개선되고 연준이 제 역할을 하는 한 주식이 반드시 하락할 이유는 없다고 봄. 2년-10년 금리차(약 -100bp)는 기대 인플레이션 차이와 인플레 위험 프리미엄으로 설명되며, 인플레이션 곡선의 백워데이션을 반영하므로 일반적인 침체 신호와 다르다고 주장. 전반적으로 Tom Lee는 단기 변동성에도 불구하고 기술주·산업재 중심의 상승 추세가 이어질 것이라는 낙관적 입장을 유지한다.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee Tom you're known to be bullish and despite today's action you're not moving off of that and so I wonder is it because you think the economy is actually getting weaker than it looks or because you think it's strong enough but not too strong and that's great hi John I mean it's a it is a path that is sort of in the middle of that um you know I think Powell today was kind of emphasis that the fed's reaction is changing and that's why we saw uh March and may hikes actually increase but if you ask is the trajectory of inflation what changed or moved markets it hasn't you know um in fact if you look at the break evens for six months forward or 12 months they actually went down today so I think the stock market is going to care about the path of inflation it does care about how the FED reacts to it but the reason we're constructive has a lot to do with leading indicators showing us that inflation could be a lot softer I know January sort of changed a lot of people's minds but you know we start to get some of the February data and I and I do think some of this seasonal Distortion the gap between jolts and indeed I mean these gaps as they close actually show us that inflation pressures could be easing actually a lot faster than expected so that's keeping us constructive so Tom then on a day like today and I know you're bullish and and you do think the Market's going to rally on a day like today where you have all the major averages down more than one percent every sector in the s p in the red would you be buying and if so what uh yeah I mean today you know today's a day that uh you know someone hits the sell button and maybe not discriminating on price so I would look at that as a buying opportunity I mean the vix moved up but the 10-year yield actually uh was pretty flat and we did see some signs of panic whether you're looking at Arms index it's not quite at the Panic level or the put call ratio um so I do think that this is a better entry point not to be selling here but to be buying and you know we'd be sticking with what we liked at the start of the year which is Fang and the Industrials and then sort of a distant third is is energy but energy is probably tougher in the first half uh Mike want to get your thoughts on this too because we did see broad-based selling today financials the worst performing real estate as you might expect with yields moving higher as well but also materials I mean it was really kind of across the board today um the way to think about this uh just a knee-jerk reaction to what we saw in the bond market in response to Powell or um or or something more in terms of the technicals I think it was mostly a reflex response but a Justified one to a fair degree I mean you have to reprice according to the rate path I do think breadth was relatively negative but it's you know we're working off of uh I think some money in the bank so to speak that the rally has earned uh us so it's not as if you've kind of Unwound the strength even of last week's bounce so technically I think it's okay it's precarious but it's probably not something that changed the real weakness in Regional Bank stocks within financials definitely noteworthy if you look at like a five-year chart of the regional Banks ETF it looks like it's kind of teetering near the edge of of some some key levels basically it hasn't been this low in a couple years so you know that's not a great economic message but you've also had head fakes lower before in uh in exactly that sector Tom with a 50 basis point hike change your opinion uh uh I mean 50 basis point hike is going to have to get priced into the stock market I think today was maybe the start of how that's going to affect markets but you know I think it there's a misconception that as long as a Fed is hiking that the stock market will go down because Financial conditions are tightening I mean that was true of last year because the Fed was higher in a hurry but if you look at the 14 fed cycle since 1970 where the Fed was Raising over more than a 24-month period 11 of those 14 times stocks made new highs while the Fed was hiking I wonder what would it take 75 would it take just a seven percent Target what would it take to make you less bullish John I think if we were turtling towards a recession uh I think that would be tough for stocks to actually rise but as you know there were predictions of recessions last year and again we're still waiting for those recessioned you know metrics to show up so I think as long as inflation is improving and the FED is doing its job that's not that's not a reason for someone to say the stock market has to go down 20 last year we already had a 27 drawdown so I think you know you have to keep in mind the Market's been an uptrend since October so we're six months into an uptrend and if that's his test and we're up a percent this year is someone going to say where's the recession are we going to say that maybe it was a time to be adding risk it kind of goes back to the conversation we're just having with Mike though Tom and that is it's a very unusual time period both in terms of the economic data and what the market is signaling as well right now and I mean we saw the 210 spread today for example invert further uh negative 100 basis points last time we saw that was September of 1981 that's not a recession indicator to you how do you see that well we've been doing a lot of work on that yield inversion you know which is that I did did you just say 10 year versus two-year and you know you have to keep mind the the nominal level of yields has to reflect the expected inflation over that time period plus inflation risk premium so most of us intuitively would say inflation will be lower 10 years forward and the risk of inflation is lower that can be measured by looking at the the tips break evens for the two and ten year that's almost 80 basis points now plus there is what you can measure using a Fed model of inflation risk premium which is 20 basis points that hundred basis points of inversion of curve is literally reflecting the difference in expected inflation so you know I know people talk about the yield curve inversions you know you can you can go all the way back to 60.
this this inversion is unusual because it's reflecting a backwardation of the inflation curve itself Tom Lee always great to get your thoughts thanks for joining us on a tumultuous Market day we appreciate it wow thanks yeah that Charging Bull statue the famous one off Wall Street made of bronze pretty solid might have to replace it with Tom Lee even more of a solid ball crowd strike
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