저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라는 2023년 1분기 인도량이 컨센서스를 상회해 월가 전망을 이겼다고 봄 추정 근거: 1분기 인도량 약 42.3만 대(전년 대비 +36%), 연간 목표 180만 대 페이스 상회로 판단 마진 방어와 4월 19일 실적이 다음 쟁점 가격 인하는 마진 구조상 여력이 있어 추가 인하 가능성이 있으며, 배터리 원가 하락이 장기 호재 중국·미국 등에서 소폭 추가 인하 가능성 언급 경쟁 및 업종: 리비안은 인도량 감소와 주가 부진으로 과제가 많음 토요타는 전기차 전환이 늦다고 비판, 테슬라 시총(약 6000억 달러)이 토요타(약 2300억 달러)보다 커도 정당화 가능하다는 입장 트위터 및 머스크: 트위터 수익화는 어렵고 인수가(440억 달러)가 과도하다는 지적 블루체크 유료화 효과에는 회의적이며, 머스크의 트위터 관련 행보가 테슬라 투자 심리에 영향 가능성 언급 출연자 전망: 테슬라에 대해 장기 매수 의견 유지, 단기 주가 하락은 과잉 반응으로 해석 리스크: 거시 환경 불투명, 가격 인하 경쟁, 마진 압박
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actually ahead of that piece Dennis was just on TV and he says that Tesla is on track to beat this year's delivery consensus Dani is actually a fairly good analyst if you look at his performance in just the last 12 months he is in the top 140 Wall Street analysts overall although there was a point when then I said to hold Tesla stock and do not buy Tesla stock and that is why because average Tesla stock return is not great but overall he's not a bad analyst and if he sticks with his buy rating for Tesla stock eventually I believe his Tesla stock return parading is going to look really good technically if you just bought Tesla stock when he said buy back in 2018 and as long as you capped all of that stock and keep in mind then Iris didn't say sell Tesla stock actually you would be up quite a bit it would all depend on how much did you initially buy right here and then how much did you buy right at the top and now let's take a look at what Dan said today chairs of Tesla trading down more than six percent today despite record deliveries in the first quarter of the year that delivers number coming in at nearly 423 000 Vehicles up 36 since last year the EV maker releasing the numbers on Sunday we'll get full q1 results in about two weeks for more on this let's welcome in Dan Ives wood Bush managing director and Senior Equity analyst also it tests the bullet down good to see you you like these numbers you were digging a man why are investors not yolk I think it was just a knee-jerk reaction after a stock that's basically doubled you know so far the first three months of the year they beat what I'll call whisper numbers you know now I think maybe some might have been hoping for more of a b given the price cut I don't think Tesla beat the whisper number at least not the one that the retail Tesla stock investors had in mind and there were some that were even higher than these numbers right here for example the billionaire Leo cogman all in Tesla stock investor he was at 450 000 deliveries and Ross Gerber was even higher than that but what is clear is that Tesla beat the Wall Street consensus I could not find a single analyst that said that Tesla did not beat the consensus I posted this on Twitter and no one said that there's anyone else that an analyst not a a media publication that said Tesla did not beat the consensus or at least that Tesla basically did not come in at expectations I also asked about that in one of the previous videos that already got over 10 000 views and not a single person said that there is anyone else that said that Tesla did not beat the expectations I'm talking about Wall Street analyst specifically now the debate will be margins going into April 19th I believe margins they held the line relative to how they got it so I think overall this is a major step in the right direction a murky macro when you look at competitors we'll find out on April 19th Dan what about the fact though that they did fall short of the pace that's needed to attain that goal that musk laid out in terms of 50 annual growth is that still attainable but I mean so I I think 50 was really something they took off the table on the last earnings I I mean now Grant the longer term 50 goal but really the number that the street investors are focused on is 1.8 million and I think if you look at that they are on or actually ahead of that pace and that's all right now of course this name a lot of bulls and bears in terms of that tug of war despite the stock doing is doing I think the Bulls ultimately won this battle I agree remember just in January we had people saying oh Tesla stock is going to go all the way down to 60 and even lower I mean we even had a Tesla stock Bowl saying that if Tesla stock was at twenty dollars per share that would still be high in a recession yeah well we are about 10 times above that right now and also he is now quite bullish but then ultimately it comes down to this price action I mean we're talking about a market cap almost three times Toyota 602 billion for Tesla 231 billion for Toyota is that even near Justified with the demand we're seeing for Tesla look and that's always the debate right I mean if you're going back to testimony they hated a 5 billion they despised it a trillion and pull the hair out at 600 billion we actually have a cherry tree outside our house and I need to hire a cherry picker um so I went to Microsoft Bing and I don't know I use good results or no you tell me I really don't like picking the cherries myself I don't know if he would like to come and help me with that I mean I'm willing to pay maybe not a lot but I'm certainly willing to pay at least a little bit I just have always viewed as a disruptive technology player and not a traditional autoplay that's why I do apples oranges when you compare them just to the likes of a Toyota or others I believe they deserve more of a disruptive Tech multiple and I think that's what you've seen happen to the stock especially over you know the last few months now with that said they're held to a higher standard and they need to continue to produce but I still think we're in the early Innings of this green tidal wave playing out a five trillion dollar Mark in terms of EVS I certainly don't have much hope in Toyota I mean they consider hydrogen still a priority and that's the new CEO that supposedly is really focused on EVS now but yeah in fact it is so not clear what theor is going to do that 54 organizations demanded Toyota to shift to EVS globally as when new CEO steps in Dan what about the price Cuts clearly they are helping sales right now now there's talk of further price Cuts ahead do you buy that given the fact and put it in your own words the murky macro picture right now look but they've had to altering rip the Band-Aid off I think that was the smart poker move that must did earlier this year it's a big reason one of the stocks up now of course the debate will be they need to do more price cards I think in China you'll see some more slight price Cuts potentially in the U.S as well as the arms race plays out but because of their margin structure it gives them so so much more flexibility than other vendors to do these price cuts and I think that really continues to be the story here especially as battery costs ultimately get reduced over the coming months and years Dan ice is one of the few analysts that gets this part of the Tesla stock story most other analysts simply just do not get it they are so focused on the short term that they ignore the long-term picture that Tesla is going to acquire a much bigger percentage of the auto market share which then allows them to benefit from improved economies of scale and that will prevent other competition from really coming in because if Tesla already has ridiculously developed economies of scale than anyone else that comes in they have to sell the vehicles at much bigger losses and you can only do that for so long I mean while rivien also has some numbers out deliveries down seven percent in the quarter that stock down a little more than two percent what does this mean look I mean rivian's been it's been a nightmare right I mean because on one hand you have a great story in terms of the production in terms of you is an Innovative vehicle the Amazon partnership but you know every quarter it's been dog ate the homework the wind blew it over I was late because of traffic going to be named excuse but that is only just a short-term thing they have been doing great long term right I mean year-to-date they are down 12 but so what that's only short term let's zoom out a little bit okay down 67 okay but I mean I if you zoom out even more it's going to be much better right um no it would appear to me that Tesla has been eating rivian's homework I mean you look at the Tesla stock in the last five years it's up 876 percent I think investors have gotten very very frustrated this is clearly a slight positive but ultimately more wood to chop they now need to execute to what I believe could be the power of the rivian story it did lay out the Bold case for me because I think a lot of people are struggling really to see the growth opportunity and what rivian's even going to look like a year from now I have acquired some footage from a feature this is GM and this is rivian this is of course as you can tell Tesla obviously as you can see this is rivian's homework I wonder how long before rivian wakes up and realizes that the homework is being eaten the little one by the way is byd and uh that one is GM GM is still I sleep fully and yeah look at how happy Tesla is Tesla tells rivian hey look I ate your homework what are you gonna do about it nothing you're gonna do nothing you're just gonna be happy is what you're gonna do I mean the bookcase is that they'll have enough Capital to navigate this they could raise more Capital if you look at the opportunity if you call 10 15 of traditional pickup or even sport utility convert to EVS with where rivian sits you know you look over the coming years there's a company that could be doing in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles rather than forty or fifty thousand as that plays out with eventually what will become positive margin story that's the Holy Grail but look I think as we've seen with Arabian we've seen it with Farley and Ford look at Lucid easier said than done to actually produce and get these vehicles to customers hands and I think that's why Tesla continues to be their world everyone else is paying rent you know with obviously others chasing them GM included I hope Ruby and succeeds I wish man well I went for a walk downtown not a long time ago and when I was walking an hour later I was like how come I have a headache I never have headaches and then I realized oh it's all of a pollution from all of these vehicles and when I'm away from a city am I breathing it just feels better I want everyone to transition to EVS faster I don't want to breathe this polluted air I gotta ask you about Tesla only via Elon Musk who's also running Twitter and the big story is this blue check I know this is not a public company anymore but you know Dives Tech is everyone's favorite Twitter account are you gonna pay this nine bucks a month to maintain your blue check is he doing anything right to inspire confidence that a Twitter turn around is coming well that's a rather strong question that has multiple assumptions built in it such as Elon cannot do a great job and therefore it is amazing if Elon does anything great but we all know that Elon said that Twitter is trending towards being profitable actually that is good for Tesla stock investors because when Elon is less likely to sell Tesla stock in the future yeah David great question I mean look I think the big thing is and of course you know Briggs what one of my favorite Twitter follows as well especially with NCAA but um but look it comes down to you know I believe this is something where that overhanging started to dissipate you're starting to now see more of a break even Twitter business it's going to be uphill battle to monetize right if you've gone to Italian restaurants in the last 20 years Bread's free now they tell you Bread's four dollars it's going to be tough to write to monetize that so this is going to be a bit of an uphill battle and it always has been with Twitter with you know for paying 44 billion for something that I believe is worth closer to 15 to 20 billion are you buying bread again I mean that's gonna look I mean I'm I'm a Believer here I'm a Believer here that it's gonna ultimately appeal to some consumers in some organizations but ultimately I think this doll needs to play out in terms of that uh that blue check and especially look for someone like yourself now with the succession and everything else so you're probably more of a blue Tech type person but but we're not all in the Briggs category so you're really inflating his ego here Dan I've got two hours left with him it appears to me that that ice is not going to be paying for the blue check mark on Twitter but here's something that is interesting that is happening on Twitter currently you can see that the Twitter logo has been changed to the image of Dogecoin for about one second when I logged into my Twitter account I thought oh did someone hack my account what happened did someone change my profile picture because you know you usually have your profile picture but not at the top and I thought maybe someone redesigned the whole thing and now they put the profile picture at the top and then I realized oh okay it's fine but yeah Elon you're being a legend here delivering your promises he did promise sort of that he would actually eventually change the Twitter logo to the Dogecoin image and this is that that's a
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