저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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정치 서커스(탄핵 논의·대선 후보 공약)는 평소 시장의 불확실성을 키우지만, 불확실성이 줄어드는 과정에서 증시는 완만하게 오르는 상승장이 이어질 수 있다. 유럽은 기업 실적이 개선되고 있으며, 포퓰리즘 확산으로 정치적 교착(그리드락)이 생겨 오히려 주식에 우호적이라고 주장한다. 최근 IPO 부진(펠로톤, 리프트, 우버, 블루 에이프런 등)은 투자 심리가 아직 과열되지 않았다는 신호이므로 강세 요인이라고 본다. 워크 사태 역시 공개시장이 엄격한 잣대를 적용한다는 뜻으로 긍정적이라고 해석한다. 워런의 부유세와 샌더스·바이든의 증세 공약은 후보들의 선거용 발언에 가깝고, 실제 입법 가능성은 낮으며 위헌 소지도 있다고 평가한다. 역대 대통령 3년차에는 하락이 거의 없었고, 정치적 불확실성은 주로 임기 초 1~2년에 커진다는 점을 근거로 든다. 출연자는 정치 이벤트보다 시장 심리와 불확실성 축소를 중시하는 장기 낙관론자다.
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all right in the meantime uh to billionaire investor ken fisher on all of this impeachment stuff ken said something interesting lately always says something interesting multiple best-selling author 11 or 12 books by last count multi-billionaire he says circuses don't kill bull markets i think he was referring to that process of impeachment ken fisher good to have you always good to be with you neil thanks for having me all right so this is a circus well you know when you look at a lot of it it kind of sounds like the name of a pr firm sort of like wink and blinking and stinking uh it's a lot of wild claims and you know when you look there's the congressional part and then there's the presidential aspirants and lots people saying lots of stuff which is if you think of the aspirants at this point all of the ones that are not riding at the top of the poles actually have to say a lot of extreme stuff to hope to get up in the polls because there's only four months until iowa new hampshire and after that if they're not up they're dead i mean not literally dead but you get the point and then on the congressional side this is all this one big jiggering about the house and the senate with the elections you know very center of mind and you know a handful of states that are in very swing condition in the senate that has very big import for 2021 and beyond so yeah it's a circus but it's not an unusual circus it's just a little more extreme normally markets in the third and fourth quarter of uh the third year of a president's term and often in the first and second have a lot of this wild to them that grinds on the market and you use the word uncertainty markets don't like rising uncertainty they like falling uncertainty and as we move through that process it tends to funnel down eventually to where it gets clear that one or two are the potential nominees and then eventually won and then eventually it funnels down to the market pre-pricing because it usually does who will actually win in the end and that's all falling uncertainty so i think for a while we can have a kind of a bull market that continues but begrudgingly and grinding the way a lot of this bull market is what would keep it continuing ken what would you you i think you had said that it's not a great world but it's an okay world it's an okay world enough to keep the opportunity there's all kinds of good things going on most of which nobody focuses on right now people are focused on the bad in europe people have focused on the bad but in fact earnings are improving corporations in europe have had lots of time to batten down the hatches about every potential known negative whether it's got to do with interest rates whether it's got to do with brexit on and on and on and they're doing pretty well and nobody notices the election cycle in the european world and i've spoken about this before is actually positive the aftermath of eu elections has a very strong history being positive because people fear in advance the eu going crazy and the populist trend in europe is also positive because we've got for the first time in history pan-european gridlock virtually everywhere as the populist left and populist right have risen and the center parties have lost relative power and you can't get coalitions that can do anything because everybody hates everybody which is bullish for stocks uh may not be for what somebody wants to get done in that environment you think about this like an obstacle course the part about gridlock that's beautiful is in business or in life you're kind of moving through an obstacle course and when there's heavy legislation and lots of things being done it's like a obstacle course with big sharp fast moving unpredictable obstacles and you move through it kind of looking around being real cautious when you move to gridlock and that gets stabilized the obstacles get stabilized you start moving through faster things pick up people get more optimistic progress is made and we've just entered that world in europe people don't realize that uh there's all kinds of other i make the point which i've made forever we haven't had a negative third year for president's term since 1939 which was only down nine tenths of one percent going into world war ii and in fact we've only had four negative years in a fourth year of a president's term normally the negative years in american political history are in the first and second years of president's terms of which almost half of them are negative because that's the period of rising political uncertainty tied to the fact that legislation actually goes through almost all people don't get this but it's true almost all big legislation in american history modern american history since the beginning of the 20th century is in the first two years of president's terms creates rising uncertainty about what they might do next the reason in this latest environment we have all the trouble with some of these ipos that peloton of course is stumbling out of the gate and lift and smile direct and uber blue apron i think you would refer to ipos not as initial public offerings but it's probably overpriced so maybe they're getting there so but so do you don't worry about the lousy reception these guys have gotten uh because the lousy receptions seem to be outnumbering the good ones flip that on a ted kneel think of how positive that is and what it says about sentiment i mean if you go back to john templeton's line that i've coded on your show before uh numbers of times bull markets are born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and die on euphoria and if ipos are generally going flat that tells you there's and there's not that many of them the ones that are mostly going flat that says we got a lot of sentiment room that's a bullish feature people don't recognize it as a bullish feature but when ipos don't do well when when when pigs don't fly the reality of that is that it's fundamentally bullish yeah because they're not being confronted they're holding them to a tougher standard right and that's a good thing oh die and that's good that's good you know if you think about if you think about what we just saw in the not quite public world with the wework discussion and all of the things that went with that that's actually a positive feature because it said okay so you got these crazy venture capital and private equity guys that did all this stuff okay they do what they want but when you get to the public market they couldn't fly it that's bullish not bearish because it's a statement about sentiment having lots of room to run you know last time i had you here we were talking a little bit about the elizabeth warren's wealth tax a number of other candidates to come forward with versions of their own including bernie sanders who wants to force that on companies if they have an x number who are with this where the ceo is is paid you know what he calls an ungodly amount over the lowest paid worker there's going to be a surtax on them surtax on billionaires like you joe biden apparently is kicking around something similar you ever feel like custer that they're all out to get you oh no i really don't i don't think that way and i don't think actually anybody really should as i referred to earlier at this stage presidential aspirants say a lot of stuff hoping to gain ground biden who's been uh you know kind of slipping needs to find something to buy that sanders who is otherwise a guy that had a lot of enthusiasm last time but kind of you know not playing this time as strongly as he did last time needs to come up with some spark that gets him going if he's to go so he floats this and he floats that there's a lot of floating and nonsense that has to go on between now and new hampshire and the reality is you don't think that if any one of these people can sort of jump into that but any one of these people become president that they're going to try to find a way i guess it depends if they get the house and or senate with them to do that to go after a wealth tax because any other like marginal hike and rates isn't going to do it to pay for what they want so i'm skeptical there i'm not certain and let me show you the difference between skepticism and certainty think about it this way how many presidential nominees that have won the election have ever accomplished even half of the things that they promised they would do when they were campaigning most of them haven't accomplished almost any of them because most of the things they said they'd do by the time they got the nomination they stopped talking about in the end whoever the democratic aspirant is that gets the nomination has to go to the public and compete for the center of america and the center of america is not rowdy and extreme and they have to they're not my guess is a lot of this rhetoric now by the time you get to the middle of next year goes away and in fact if you take something like sanders wealth tax you couldn't get that through congress if you had to unless you had the democrats take a huge majority of the house and the senate and then if you take sanders desires it's not totally clear that's even constitutional i don't take this stuff as you just take what they say and accept that's what they do because presidents have never much done that yeah it's hard after uh they get elected to to put that if they get elected uh always good to see you my friend ken fisher multiple uh best seller thanks for having me so many books so little time to talk about 12 of them ones that stand out in my mind markets never forget debunkery uh the only three questions that count and on and on and on
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