Peter Schiff on recession warning: It's going to be worse than 2008

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Schiff는 2008년 이후 연준의 모든 정책이 실수였으며 버블을 더 키워 결국 더 큰 경기침체가 온다고 주장한다. 그는 경기침체가 트럼프 임기 중 시작되어 다음 대통령 임기에 최악의 국면이 올 것이라고 본다. 연준이 금리를 다시 0%로 낮추고 양적완화를 재개하겠지만 효과가 없고, 인플레이션은 주식이 아니라 식료품·주유소 등 생활물가로 흘러간다고 설명한다. 그 결과 달러가 급락하고 채권시장도 함께 무너질 것이며, 다음 위기는 주택담보대출이 아니라 국채시장에서 터진다고 전망한다. 외국 자본이 현재 미국으로 유입되어 달러를 지지하고 있지만, 시장이 미국 경제의 허약함을 깨닫는 순간 자본이 빠져나가 달러 하락을 가속할 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션이 자산가격에서 실물가격으로 옮겨가면서 소비자물가는 경기침체 과정에서 오히려 더 빠르게 오를 것이라고 진단한다. 시장은 트럼프 재선을 확실시하고 있지만, 자신은 트럼프가 2020년 선거에서 질 것으로 본다고 말한다. 대선 베팅 측면에서 시장이 이를 반영해야 한다고 언급했다. 이 영상에서는 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 언급은 없었고, 거시 전망이 중심이다. 진행자는 미국 경제 데이터와 인플레이션 통계가 왜 실제 체감과 다른지 질문했고, Schiff는 자산 인플레이션이 실물로 이동할 것이라고 답했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. KEEP DOMINATING THIS ECONOMY. CONNELL: COVERAGE CONTINUES HERE. ON A DAY THE DOW IS DOWN 800. WHETHER A RECESSION IS COMING. WHAT THE PRESIDENT SHOULD DO AND THE FED, WHAT HAVE YOU. YOU I KNOW YOU HAVE A DIFFERENT AND UNIQUE PERSPECTIVE. WHAT'S THE PETER SCHIFF TAKE ON THIS? EVERYTHING THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS DONE SINCE THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS WAS A MISTAKE.

02. ALL THEY DID WAS SUCCEED IN MAKING ALL THE PROBLEMS THAT MAKE THAT CRISIS WORSE. THEYED IT UP BY INFLATING AN EVEN BIGGER BUBBLE THAN THE ONE HAT POPPED IN '08. BY TRYING TO SHRINK THEIR BALANCE SHEET THEY PRICKED THAT BUBBLE. NOW WE'LL COMPLETE ECONOMIC CRISIS THEY INTERRUPTED IN TWEET. IN -- IN 2008.

03. BUT THE BACK HALF WILL BE WORSE. WE ARE HEAD FOR A RECESSION. IT WILL BE WORSE THAN '08, THE FED IS GOING BACK TO ZERO. THEY ARE GOING TO DO QE AGAIN. BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK. ALL THE INFLATION IS GOING TO THE SUPER MARKETS AND THE GAS STATION. IT WON'T GO INTO THE STOCK MARKET. THE DOLLAR WILL GO THROUGH THE FLOOR, IT WILL TAKE THE BOND MARKET WITH IT.

04. THE NEXT CRISIS IS NOT STUBB PRIME MORT AGES, IT WILL IN THE TREASURY MARKET. THIS WILL BE INFLATIONARY WHERE THERE IS NO WAY OUT. THE RECESSION WILL START BEFORE HE FINISHES HIS TERM WHICH MEANS HE WON'T HAVE A SECOND TERM. BUT THE WORST PART OF THE RECESSION WILL TAKE PLACE ON THE WATCH OF THE NEXT PRESIDENT.

05. IS THIS BILL MAHER? CONNELL: HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE? IF THERE ARE SO MANY PROBLEMS AROUND THE WORLD WHICH WE KNOW THERE ARE. AND THE CAPITAL IS FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES FOR THE TIME BEING. THAT SUPPORTS OUR CURRENCY. SO HOW DOES THAT ALL -- WHAT HAPPENS? THAT CAPITAL IS GOING TO FLEE. PEOPLE MADE THE MISTAKE.

06. INITIALLY EVERYBODY BELIEVED FED WAS GOING TO NORMAL SIZE RATES. I KNEW THEY COULDN'T DO THAT. THE FEDS FINALLY ABORTED THE PROCESS. THE MARKET STILL BELIEVE WE SOMEHOW HAVE A BETTER ECONOMY AND OUR RATES WILL BE HIGHER AND WE'LL AVOID RECESSION BUT WHEN THEY REALIZE THAT'S NOT TRUE. WHEN THE FED SLASHES RATES, THEY WILL FLEE FROM THE DOLLAR.

07. ESPECIALLY WHEN INFLATION CONTINUES TO RISE. AS WE MOVE INTO THIS RECESSION, CONSUMER PRICES WILL RISE EVEN FASTER. EVEN IF THE DOLLAR STARTS TO FALL, IT WILL PUSH PRICES UP EVEN MORE. CONNELL: HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE FACT THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN WHAT WE WOULD BY NOW HAVE SEEN ACTUAL INFLATION, MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE SOONER IN GOVERNMENT DATA, THAT IT HASN'T BEEN MORE THAT THAN IT IS.

08. YESTERDAY WE GOT THE FIRST BACK-TO-BACK FIRST 3-POINT GAIN. SINCE 2001. BUT A LOT OF THE INFLATION THE FED CREATED SHOWED UP IN ASSET PRICES, STOCKS, HE'LL ESTATE BONDS. BUT THAT INFLATION IS GOING TO MOVE FROM ASSETS PRICES TO GOODS PRICES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE DOLLAR AND U.S. ECONOMY IS LOST AND WHEN THE MARKETS PRICE IN A TRUMP LOSS.

09. RIGHT NOW EVERYBODY THINKS A TRUMP VICTORY IS A SURE THING. JUST LIKE EVERYBODY THOSE COULDN'T WIN IN 2016, EVERYBODY THINKS HE CAN'T LOSE IN 2020. CONNELL: YOU THINK THERE IS AN INVESTMENT BET ON THE ELECTION. I REMEMBER NOBODY THOUGHT HE COULD WIN IN REALITY. PEOPLE THOUGHT IT WAS CRAZY. I WAS ONE OF THE FEW PEOPLE WHO CAME ON TELEVISION AND SAID I THINK HE CAN WIN.

10. NOW I THINK HE'S GOING TO LOSE. I THINK THE RECESSION IS GOING TO START BEFORE THE END OF HIS TERM AND IT WILL BE BLAMED ON HIM. GEORGE BUSH WAS ABLE TO GET RE-ELECTED. THE FED BOUGHT BUSH A SECOND TERM AFTER THE DOT COM BUBBLE BURST. WE ELECTED OBAMA. NOW THE FED WON'T BE ABLE TO INFLATE ANOTHER BUBBLE TO SAVE TRUMP.

11. IT WILL BLOW UP ON HIS FIRST TERM AND THE DEMOCRATS WHO FOLLOWS HIM WILL BE A SOCIALIST AND WILL BE MUCH WORSE FOR THE ECONOMY THAN OBAMA. CONNELL: YOUR POINT IS THE MARKET WILL TRY TO PRICE THAT IN, IF YOU ARE RIGHT. WE'LL SEE. ONE THING YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT, THE TIMING OF THESE POLITICAL EVENTS. HIS FATHER WOULD HAVE LOVED BETTER TIMING BEFORE THE '92