저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 제롬 파월식 대규모 통화 발행과 재정 지출이 인플레이션을 초래했으며, 이 인플레이션은 일시적 등락은 있어도 상당 기간 지속되고 1970년대처럼 10년 이상 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 미국 달러는 안전자산 선호 때문에 강세지만, 미국이 세계 최대 채무국이고 제재를 통해 기축통화 지위를 무기화해 대체 통화 모색이 가속화될 것이라 본다. 아직 대체 통화는 특정하지 못했다. 비트코인·암호화폐는 정부가 통제를 되찾을 위험이 있다고 경계하며, 현재 암호화폐 시장이 나스닥과 거의 1:1로 움직인다고 언급했다. 미국 주식시장은 2009년 이후 13년간 큰 약세장이 없어 이례적이며 이미 역사적으로 조정이 늦어졌다고 보고, 인플레이션과 금리 인상으로 강세장 종료가 가까워졌다고 판단한다. 인기 몰림 등 강세장 말기 신호를 보고 있다. 로저스는 현재 미국 주식을 보유하고 있으며 아직 공매도하지 않았다고 밝힌다. 우크라이나 평화 등으로 인한 마지막 랠리가 나타나면 그때 매도·공매도를 시작하겠다는 계획이다. 강세장은 과열(히스테리) 국면을 거쳐 끝나므로 그 국면을 기다리고 있다고 한다. 장기적으로 달러 약세와 대체 통화 등장을 예상하지만, 구체적인 단기 가격 방향은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
well come on oliver they spent trillions of dollars printed and spent and borrowed trillions of dollars of course it's free it's real i mean if you give me a few trillion dollars i'll show you a very good time is it an artificial recovery is it an artificial real recovery of course it is it's all this money that the people that the central banks not just the u.s all over the world have pulled out of nowhere jim on the one hand i hear a lot of people saying it's pure supply side driven inflation and then i hear comments like those that argue it's more on the demand side where is the in between where is the happy medium how come it has to be so extreme don't think it really matters there is inflation out there is going to get worse it always had when throughout history when you've printed a lot of money and borrowed and spent a lot of money it's led to inflation these are pretty simple facts i don't care whether the tooth fairy brings it or the federal reserve brings it well i do but it is coming from the federal reserve but it's here and it's real and it's going to get worse not it doesn't go up in a straight line oliver there will be dips but essentially we are in for inflation for a while is there any way to figure out at this point where that inflation level might find a balance if we did get the worst of it over the last couple months so geopolitics supply side problems where does it cool off though what might be a level that it settles at is there any way to figure that out yeah sure you watch td ameritrade i know what's wrong with you uh all i can tell you from history is that these things go up and down but essentially once inflation starts and once they've printed a lot of money it goes on for a while i mean the 70s the last time we had a serious bout it lasted over a decade i don't know why it won't happen the same way this time because the money penny has been much greater and all over the world this time everywhere so maybe they'll slow down for a while and i hope they do i would suspect that once peace comes in ukraine they will get a little bit calmer they will say oh okay things are going to be better now and they will stop raising interest rates so rapidly but then when they see that inflation is still here and just as bad then they'll have to raise even more one of the things jim i know you've talked about before is the risk of a dollar decline that threatens its reserve status uh related to that inflation argument so we're getting eight percent inflation uh we had a pandemic dollars uh highest uh in all going back to dot com era are you surprised by the strength of the greenback here oh no no if you look around the world where you're going to put your money not going to put your money in japan or england or even the euro the dollar is the less dirty shirt in the in the laundry so yes it's there and throughout history oliver when they're turmoil people have looked for a safe haven and for historic reasons people think the us dollar is a safe haven it's not it's not u.s is the largest debtor nation in world history now but people don't think that way yet and they're looking for a safe haven so they rush into the us dollar no i own a lot of us dollars as i've told many people for a while jim what replaces it though does the thesis about the dollars risk change based on the results of kovid where we printed so much to your point uh but we still came out the best i mean china is still having problems with kovit doesn't look like the chinese currency is a threat at the moment the euro has major political instability if the dollar is at risk what's chipping away at its potential well i i hope that you will tell us td ameritrade will tell us you know what's going to replace the dollar i'm looking for it every day and no currency stayed on top for more than 150 years in history we've been there a long time we have serious problems with the largest debtor nation in world history and many countries are looking to find a replacement you know the international medium of exchange is supposed to be neutral you can use it for anybody can use it for anything but washington has now changed those rules and if they get angry at you they cut you off well people say wait and wait wait wait a minute that's not the way it's supposed to work so we are forcing people we the u.s are forcing people to finding something to compete with the dollar they were already but now they're accelerating it because people see what happened to russia and people said it could happen to us too so i don't know what it's going to be yet and normally i would say maybe the chinese renminbi but it's a blocked currency you can't even buy and sell it yet so i don't know yet oliver but i assure you i'm looking because it's going to be extremely important to all of us in the future we're going to hear from a big bitcoin bull later in the show jim should uh uh we listen up with uh uh attention uh if the dollar is under threat is the crypto market the solution are you a believer well you should certainly listen up to everybody no matter how weird their ideas are you know because who knows that's sometimes where you got a new insight uh i don't see you know every country in the world is now working on crypto money uh the china china you kind of take a taxi with renminbi you have to have your phone money and the us is working on it but oliver when the u.s says okay this is money now i don't think the u.s government's going to say okay this is now the us money but if you want to use that money over there you can use that money too that's not the way those guys think they're bureaucrats they want control they want monopoly so if the crypto money ever becomes serious threats i'm afraid governments will reassert their monopoly reassert their control and then there goes crypto money with a non-government crypto money right now crypto markets are trading one-to-one with the nasdaq jim you know that equity markets have been getting blasted here seemingly the easiest explanation is the fed tightening things up and reversing that easy policy how far down do we go from here is this the popping of a bubble that was made over the last couple years well the u.s stock market and i'll use that even though there are many other markets has never had such a long period in our history where things didn't have a big bear market it's been since 2009 so that's 13 years now it could last 33 years who knows how long it's going to it will last but we're already well overdue time-wise historically-wise inflation is coming interest rates are going up so i would suspect we're getting closer to the end i see many of the signs that you always see at the end of a bull market and and as i say i mean many people are piling into stocks now which isn't usually a bad sign i own shares i'm not selling short yet my plan as i said is when the peace comes and the big rally peace rally comes that's when i will start selling and selling short so if you're talking european resolution in ukraine uh rally uh as a result of that it's gonna be the short opportunity well i don't know what's to cause it i i'm a simple person i would just suspect somebody is going to sit down in russia or ukraine or somewhere and say look this is all madness let's stop this nobody's gaining from it at that point peace will come people will worry less about inflation they'll say ah okay the ukrainians and the russians can sell wheat again they can sell oil people will be less worried about inflation at least psychologically that will make the fed say ah okay we don't need to be so strict and that will cause the big rally but that will probably be the last in my view that will be the last rally it doesn't mean it's not going to be over in a week it's not going to be over in a month you know usually the last gasp in a bull market it turns into a blow-off and really strange things happen you look at the 1999 at the when that bull market had its blow off insane things happened they always do you know bull markets end in hysteria when people go nuts bear markets end in panic when everybody gets terrified so i'm still waiting for the hysterical phase at which point i hope i'm smart enough to sell and sell short
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