저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시는 큰 등락 끝에 소폭 상승 마감했으나 1월 낙폭이 크고, 투기적 종목 중심의 조정이 이어진다는 진단이다. 나스닥은 금요일 3.2% 상승했으나 주간으로는 소폭 플러스, 월간 약 -11.5%다. 아크 이노베이션(ARKK)은 고점 대비 약 60% 하락했고 월간 -27%다. Schiff는 숏커버링에 의한 반등으로 보며 증시가 아직 바닥을 확인하지 못했다고 본다. 로빈후드(HOOD)는 실적 쇼크 후 주가가 급락해 10달러 아래로 밀렸고 상장 최고가 대비 약 88% 하락했다. Schiff는 밈주식·가상화폐에 투자한 고객들이 손실을 입어 사업 기반이 무너지고, 소송(FINRA 중재)이 대거 몰릴 것으로 전망했다. 애플은 실적 호조로 7% 상승해 시장을 떠받쳤다. 금 가격은 주간 40달러 하락해 1,791.5달러에서 마감했다. Schiff는 이 지지선에서 금이 반등할 것으로 예상했다. 은 가격은 주간 -1.70달러로 약세였고, 금·은 광산주(GDX 주간 -7.4%)도 크게 밀렸다. 은광주는 52주 신저가를 기록했다. 달러인덱스는 97 부근으로 주간 2.1% 상승해 강세를 보였다. Schiff는 달러 강세와 금 약세의 원인을 긴축 기대(파월의 금리 인상 예고)로 봤다. 유가는 86.82달러로 마감했고 장중 88.84달러 신고가를 기록했다. Schiff는 3월 금리 인상 무렵 유가가 100달러를 넘을 수 있다고 보며, 연준이 인플레이션을 뒤쫓고 있다고 평가했다. Schiff는 경제가 강하다는 연준의 주장을 비판하며, 금리를 올리지 못했던 작년의 판단을 근거로 경제가 취약하다고 봤다. 현재 상황을 역대 최대 버블로 규정하고, 작은 금리 인상도 버블을 터뜨릴 수 있다고 경고했다. 전반적으로 하락 리스크를 강조하는 비관적 시각이다.
다듬은 글
all of the u.s stock market averages managed to eke out the week with small gains and that was following another huge reversal on friday you know the dow jones finished up 564 points but earlier in the morning before the market opened the futures were down over 400 points in fact i think the load during normal hours was down about 350 but still was about a two and a half percent swing from the morning low to the close nasdaq had an even bigger swing it finished the day up 3.2 but that was a four and a half percent rise from its morning low though the nasdaq finished the week slightly positive it's still down about 11 and a half percent on the month but again the losses are concentrated in the more speculative part of the nasdaq again look at the kathy wood arc innovation it had a huge rally it closed up 3.9 on the day but that was seven percent off its morning low in fact the new low 64.35 which it set yesterday morning represented a 60 decline from its peak price and even though it was up on the day it still finished down 3.6 on the week so bucking the trend nasdaq up on the week but arc innovation still down and it's still down 27 on the month of january i think it's very possible that this could end up being the worst january for the stock market ever certainly the worst january for the nasdaq ever one of the reasons though that the market held up was apple which was up 7 on the day apple released its earnings after the bell on thursday and they beat across the board so that kind of set the tone at least the market had that good news to hang its hat on we also had bad news that came out of the trading app robin hood they reported horrible results worse than expected after the bell on thursday and the stock tanked it was down maybe close to 20 percent 15 or so traded below 10 dollars per share i think the low is like 994 during the normal session it may have traded a little lower than that in pre-market i think it did but that represented an 88 fall from its all-time high 85 a share and it set that high in the second week of trading so it went public and then in the very next week in august of last year the stock traded at 85 and yesterday morning it traded hands at under 10 now we had this big reversal in the stock it ended up closing at 12.70 so almost a 30 rise from the low to me that was short covering in fact i think a good part of friday's rally was shorts covering they have some big profits they're going into the end of the month they probably wanted to take the opportunity to realize some of those gains and put them in the bank and so that's what this rally smells like to me i do not think the stock market is out of the woods by a long shot i think we still have some work to do on the downside and by the way the worst is not over for robin hood think about that company because robin hood's customers the millions and millions of people that have downloaded that trading app and have been buying and selling stocks and cryptocurrencies all these guys are gonna go broke i mean if you have a business and all of your customers are broke what's that business worth i mean you don't have any value if you don't have any customers because if your customers are bankrupt they can't generate any earnings for you the robin hood customers are the ones that loaded up on robinhood stock and all of these other meme stocks and cryptocurrencies that are now collapsing so they are in the process of getting wiped out and if robinhood couldn't make a profit during the bull market which it didn't how is it going to make a profit during the bear market which it can't this company is never going to make a profit and if you're never going to make a profit well then how are you going to stay in business they can't they've been able to stay in business because they've been able to sell stock to investors well how are they going to do that in the future when the people who already bought stock are getting killed in fact what's really going to be a problem for robin hood is going to be lawsuits they are going to be inundated with millions of finra arbitrations because all of these people who lost money are going to sue to get it back nobody had fun losing money at robin hood most of the people who download that app thought they were going to make money they thought they were investors in fact they thought they were brilliant investors they thought they were on the cutting edge of a new investment style and they confused brains for a bull market or more specifically for a bubble now the stock market may have eked out some gains thanks to a big rally on friday but not so for the gold and silver market gold and silver continued to lose ground on friday in fact gold was down 40 bucks on the week we closed below 1800 1791.50 now i think this is the support area for gold so i do expect gold to rally next week we'll see if i'm right silver really got beaten up it was down 1.70 on the week so it was a terrible week for the mining stocks gold and silver mining stocks down gdx down 7.4 on the week that was a big loss in fact the biggest losers were the silver stocks almost every silver stock i own hit a 52-week low on friday so i thought silver looked like it was leading the market higher now it's leading the market lower there is tremendous volatility here in the metals market as traders are trying to brace themselves for the rate hikes that powell is promising to deliver but i still think the market has got this wrong on the impact the rate hikes are going to have on gold and silver and on the dollar which continues to rise the dollar has been powering higher it gave back a tiny bit of those gains on friday but the dollar index still closed at 97 spot 2-1 up solidly on the week because it closed last week at 95-64 so what are the strongest weeks we've had in some time in the dollar index and again the same thing that is pushing the dollar up is what's pushing gold down and that is this hawkish fed that's going to be raising interest rates and those higher rates are supposedly going to be supportive of the dollar and a big headwind for the price of gold and silver but while the price of yellow gold was falling the price of black gold keeps on rising oil had another positive week closing at 86.82 it closed last week at 85.14 but look at the intraday high on friday a barrel of oil traded as high as 88 dollars and 84 cents that's the new high water mark i expect that demarcus will take that out next week in fact i think by the time powell gets around to that first rate hike in march the price of oil will likely be above 100 a barrel meaning that the fed is continually falling further and further behind the inflation curve as it waits patiently to pull the trigger but again powell is only talking tough about raising rates because he believes that we have this super strong economy or at least that's what he claims and he also claims that these rate hikes are not going to hurt the economy they're not going to hurt employment because it's so strong that maybe higher rates have been a problem for the economy in the past but it won't be a problem in the future because the economy is so much stronger now than it's ever been i mean he's talking about the economy as if it's never been this strong the labor market has never been this good and so it's bulletproof right it's impervious the fed can do no harm we could raise rates we could shrink the balance sheet and this super strong economy is just going to take it in stride that is complete nonsense first of all if the economy really was so super strong why did the fed wait so long to raise rates in fact it's still waiting it's not going to raise wage until march if we really have such a strong economy in the face of the worst inflation in 40 years why wait why not raise rates right now in fact if the economy really is so good why didn't the fed raise rates last year why didn't they act preemptively why didn't they take on some insurance after all this strong economy could have handled it obviously the reason the fed didn't raise rates last year is because pal knew the economy was too weak to withstand it and it's still too weak because it's weaker now than it was then if you look at the new economic data the economy is already slowing down yet the fed wasn't willing to raise rates last year when it was stronger and now that it's less strong powell is claiming that it's the strongest ever and therefore he has the ability to raise these rates without affecting the economy or employment look he is simply looking in the rear view mirror at how the economy was when it was propped up by massive fed support now powell thinks he can remove the very support that was underlying the economy and the economy is going to be fine it won't it will come crashing down the reality is it's not a strong economy it is a bubble this is the biggest bubble we've ever had powell doesn't know the difference between a bubble and a strong economy in fact no one at the fed seems to know when we have a bubble in fact alan greenspan was famous for saying you never know when there's a bubble until after it pops of course back then i was saying it was nonsense if it walks like a bubble and looks like a bubble and quacks like a bubble it's a bubble and this is the mother of all bubbles yet the fed still doesn't understand that it exists and it thinks they could take a pin to it and in fact because this bubble is so big even the smallest of pins will prick it the reality is the economy today is more vulnerable to a rise in interest rates even a smaller rise than it was in the past because the bigger the bubble the more dependent it is on all that cheap money and so the bigger the bubble the smaller the pin that's needed to prick it and in fact powell has already pricked the bubble whether he knows it or not just talking about the pin
Comments 0