저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 다음 불황·베어마켓은 막대한 부채 때문에 평생 가장 나쁠 것이며, 실물자산이 최선의 기회다. 거시 전망: 2008년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증했고, 인플레이션 국면에서는 가격이 오르는 실물자산이 수익을 내거나 자산을 지켜준다고 주장. 기회 분야: 재난 후에는 기회가 생기며, 코로나로 여행·관광·엔터테인먼트가 무너진 상황에서 중국 와인주를 최근 매수했다고 언급. 채권: 채권은 역사상 가장 큰 거품이라 기회가 아니라고 평가. 원자재: 원자재는 매우 싸며, 은은 60% 하락해 기회라고 언급. 현재 포지션: 아직 아무것도 팔지 않았고 공매도도 하지 않음. 미국 주식 전체는 거품 단계가 아니나 일부 종목은 거품 조짐이 보인다고 봄. 거품 대응: 거품이 본격화되면 매도 후 공매도를 시작하겠다고 했으나 시장 타이밍에는 능하지 않다고 인정. 거품 역사: 1999년 닷컴 버블 때 다수 기업이 붕괴했고 아마존처럼 살아남은 기업도 있었다. 기업 재무·사업·경쟁을 보는 원칙은 투자 일반과 같다고 함. 심리: 장기 강세장 말기에는 경험 없는 신규 투자자가 몰리며 항상 나쁘게 끝나고, '이번엔 다르다'는 말이 나오면 경계해야 한다고 조언. 결론적 교훈: 자신이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고, 인터넷·TV 등 외부 정보에 휘둘리지 말 것.
다듬은 글
i'm sure the next bear market we have will be the worst in my lifetime we had a big bear market in 2008 because of too much debt well since 2008 i mean the debt has skyrocketed everywhere we've never seen so much debt so the next bear market has to be the worst in my lifetime because of all this debt well as i said when there's inflation prices go up and if you own the things that go up in price you know whether it's sugar or silver or whatever you usually will make money or you certainly will protect yourself so the best opportunities i see are in real assets also though whenever you have a big disaster it usually leads to opportunities for instance right now travel and tourism and entertainment are all demolished in many countries and there are probably opportunities there developing for i mean i bought chinese wine stocks recently because people stopped going out they stopped going to restaurants stop going to bars so maybe there's an opportunity there often when there is a disaster it does lead to an opportunity well i said bonds are the biggest bubble they've ever been that's not an opportunity commodities are very cheap silver is down 60 percent didn't you hear what i said this is an opportunity bonds are not an opportunity maybe i'm not making myself clear well i am not selling uh anything yet and i'm not selling short anything yet i see bubbles starting to develop but at the moment it doesn't look like we're in enough enough of a bubble maybe bonds but nothing else uh for me to sell short yet many stocks in the u.s which is the biggest market are not up a lot somewhere in a clear bubble but many stocks this year now or last year were down in 2021 so it's not a full-fledged bubble yet but it looks like it's going to develop into a full-fledged bubble at which point i'll have to sell and i'll start selling short i hope i hope i'm smart enough but we usually ruined two kinds of people they ruined the skeptics first to people who say this is a bubble and it's crazy then they get ruined and then the people who believe in the bubble get ruined because then the bubble eventually collapses and they lose everything because they thought it was real so i don't know i'm not very good at market timing i've been around bubbles before i have soul bubbles i have shorted bubbles but bubbles can be very very confusing but when bubbles come everything collapses nearly everything not everything you know uh most things disappear in the 19 let's use 1999 that was a recent bubble in the u.s it was the dot-com bubble most or many of the dot-com stocks which were not real companies some of them totally collapsed and disappeared some survived and did well i mean amazon is now a great great great success uh but if you short it at amazon and that bubble you would have made a lot of money for a while but it is a company which went on to become a great success uh usually there's always somebody that survives but most bubble stocks disappear you look at their balance sheets you look at their business you look at the competition you look at the people are the people smart people no it's it's the same thing that you would look at when you're trying to decide on any investment it's exactly the same thing it's more difficult in a bubble because usually there's a lot more competition uh you know in a bubble you can many new companies start up and you have to decide which ones are really sound but it's the same thing investing is pretty much the same always i didn't say it was easy i just said it's pretty much the same well that's what advantage experience gives you i've seen all this before and often after a long bull market after a few years a lot of new people come in often inexperienced people often young people and they you hear them they're all saying oh my gosh there's this new thing let me tell you about the stock market and it's fun and you can make a lot of money and it's easy it's easy it always happens at the end of a long bull market it's happening again as i said when you have experience you know what's going you recognize these things and it always ends very badly every big bull market that turns into a bubble with lots of new inexperienced players it always ends badly always has throughout history and this one will end badly too i know that and when people start saying to you this time it is different you get very worried because they always start saying this is not going to be this is not a bubble you do not understand this time it is different when you hear the words this time it is different you should be very worried and when people say this is not a bubble you get very worried well these days uh nearly everything is a i mean the internet makes everything instantly we can know what's happening in korea and new york instantly uh all over the world there's no such thing as a very few remote markets now that we do not know about or cannot find out about as soon as we want to and invest and we can invest in many markets and in many industries uh almost immediately because of the internet however there's a difference in information and in judgment if a hundred people go into a room and they all hear the same information at the same time most of them will not get it right judgment judgment is the hard thing and i don't know how to teach judgment you ask about some successful investments before but for whatever reason they have good judgment and they get the same information that other people get but they know how to use judgment differently i don't know how to teach it i wish i did yes it's not easy it's not easy getting rich if it were easy everybody would be rich and the markets are not easy most people most investors either professional investors or not professional investors do not make money in the markets i mean it's sad but most people do not make money in the markets well the most important lesson that i have learned is only invest in what you yourself know a lot about now everybody listening to this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or sports or something and if you stay with what you know what you yourself know don't listen to the internet don't listen to the tv don't listen to anything everybody knows a lot about something and if i told you you can only have 20 investments in your life you would be very careful you wouldn't jump around all the time you would wait until you see something that you know is going to be successful then you would do research and you would invest and you would probably become a successful investor now some people would say but that's boring if you want to be successful don't worry about being boring be boring and be very successful don't listen to other people the most important lesson is to stay with what you yourself know a lot about
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