저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 피터 쉬프는 인플레이션이 지속될 것으로 보고 금·은이 달러를 대체하며 크게 오를 것이라 주장한다. 인플레이션·채권 시장 전망: 현재 인플레이션은 9%이고 30년 국채 금리는 3%로, 채권 시장이 인플레이션이 곧 사라질 것으로 믿고 있다고 본다. 이 가정이 틀리면 채권 가격은 폭락하고 금값은 급등한다고 주장한다. 연준 및 정부 정책 평가: 연준의 금리 인상은 인플레이션을 잡기에 역부족이며, 정부가 공공지출을 줄이지 않는 한 인플레이션은 2%가 아니라 두 자릿수까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 연준의 신뢰도도 대차대조표가 9조·10조 달러로 늘면 무너질 것이라고 한다. 금 전망: 달러 위기가 오면 금이 기축통화 역할을 대신하며, 금은 화폐이고 나머지 자산은 화폐의 대용품이라는 입장이다. 달러는 하락하고 장기 금리는 급등하며 금·은 가격은 폭등할 것이라 주장한다. 은 vs 금 비교: 금은 주로 투자 자산이고 은은 전자·태양광 등 산업 수요가 크다. 은은 경기 안정기에 더 잘 버티고, 금은 긴 기간에 더 강하다고 설명한다. 단기에는 각 시장의 수급 불균형이 더 중요하다고 본다. 경제 구조 및 리스크: 저금리 시기에 잘못 배분된 자원과 좀비 기업이 많아 구조조정과 실업 증가가 불가피하다고 본다. 이미 침체 국면이며 연준이 인플레이션과 침체 사이에서 결국 인플레이션 쪽으로 기울 것이라 전망한다. 블록체인 금 토큰: 금을 신탁에 보관하고 1g당 1토큰으로 블록체인에 발행하는 방식을 제시하며, 민간이 정부보다 먼저 금본위제로 돌아갈 수 있다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 금 가격은 인플레이션 장기화 시 크게 오르고, 채권은 폭락할 것이라는 입장이며, 단기 변동성과 장기 상승을 구분해 설명한다.
다듬은 글
if we have a dollar crisis gold is going to rise to replace the dollar as the primary international reserve asset not a currency gold is true money everything else is a money substitute when most people think of investing they probably think of buying shares of companies on the stock market in fact investing in the stock market has helped countless people accumulate wealth over the years however savvy investors know that the stock market is a battle between bears and bulls a battle in which prices fluctuate widely creating risks to balance this risk the most successful investors look to safe havens like a reliable store of value one of the most common ways to hedge against stock market risk is to invest in precious metals with the most popular investments being silver and gold gold and silver are two popular investments for those looking for assets that can be both a store of value and a hedge against inflation these precious metals are well regarded and have a long history but they offer different types of benefits and security and investors should be aware of how they are likely to perform in various economic climates before deciding to invest in one of them in today's video we will share why peter schiff believe gold and silver are best assets to grow your wealth but before we get into video make sure you subscribe to our channel and press that bell icon to never miss an update if you look at the bond market you can see a 30-year u.s treasury note pay 3 today inflation is 9 why would anyone lend money to the us government for thirty years at three percent you have to believe that this nine percent inflation is going to go away real quick and that the average inflation rate over the next thirty years is going to be maybe two percent which means there's a one percent return it is clear that the bond market is convinced that inflation will disappear the gold market is making the same mistake gold traders are looking at the fed's commitment to fight inflation and they think they have to decide they're going to do it they're going to get rid of inflation and they're going to do it with a high interest rate which is going to be a headwind for gold and if gold is and inflation hedge and there's no inflation to hedge because the fed has promised to get rid of it that's what's keeping the price of gold down it is a bluff that the fed cannot fight inflation due to the severity of rate hikes it would indeed be necessary because what they have done so far is totally insufficient the kind of monetary policy that would actually be necessary to eliminate inflation will never happen and of course we will never get rid of inflation without the cooperation of the government the government must drastically reduce public spending and this will never happen they will continue to increase public spending so when the markets realize that this is all a ruse that inflation is not going to go away that it is here to stay and it will be much more than two percent maybe even double digits the bond market will implode and the gold market will explode bond prices will crash and gold will skyrocket everything the fed said was wrong every forecast it made was wrong but they still have credibility there is no doubt that if we have a dollar crisis gold will rise to replace the dollar as the main international reserve asset not as a currency gold is real money everything else is a substitute for money and the difference between legitimate currencies and fiat currencies legitimate currencies are backed by gold fiat currencies are not they don't lean on anything the world is returning to a gold standard for many different reasons and the beauty of the technology we have today is that people can also follow a gold standard in private governments do not need to do that in fact perhaps the free market will return to the gold standard before governments because it is so easy to have gold stored in a trust deposit and the owner of that deposit can issue digital tokens that are on a blockchain and backed by that gold each token can be 1 gram of gold and these tokens can be traded easily they could be used as a medium of exchange as a unit of account as a store of value therefore people can easily and cheaply transact and save gold and silver with counterparties all over the world very simply and easier than ever before so the technology we have today makes the gold standard much more practical than it was in the past and it worked great in the past so it'll work even better in the future the problem is is that we have had cheap money for so long the bubble is so big we have made so many mistakes so many misallocations of resources and misinvestments there are many things to unravel many companies that should never have been created have to go bankrupt many jobs that should never have been created must be lost the workers are poorly distributed they do not do the right thing we don't do enough things because so many of our people are employed doing bad things they are in companies that only exist because of zero percent interest rates or quantitative easing meanwhile we're not doing the things we're supposed to be doing and we're going into debt to buy the things that we're not doing because of these misallocations in the economy people have not saved enough they double too much all of these patterns must and will change if the federal reserve allows interest rates to return to a free market level but when it happens again bankruptcies defaults losses everyone will have to cut spending including the u.s government one of the things the fed has been funding is massive growth in government spending so if the fed backs down to fight the inflation it created it will force the government to slash government spending but they don't at the moment they continue to increase public spending we are not doing what we should to fight inflation now what the fed is doing will allow some of the air to get out of the bubble so we are already in a recession the recession will get worse unemployment will go up the fed will capitalate in its war against inflation and wage a new war against recession and financial crisis and that means inflation will win the problem is is that when the fed tries to stimulate the economy when inflation is already well above 2 percent and is sending inflation into double digits the markets are no longer going to trust the fed when the balance sheet blows above 9 trillion then 10 trillion and to infinity and beyond the markets will no longer believe anything the fed says about its determination and commitment inflation is going to be considered here to stay and it is going to be very high and that is going to change the rules of the game because the dollar is going to go down long-term interest rates will skyrocket and the price of gold and silver will explode the demand for gold and silver comes from different sources with gold being primarily an investment asset and silver being an industrial asset therefore the price of gold changes as investors assess their own investment needs how much security they want and the return expectations of other asset classes such as stocks and bonds gold's relatively high price per ounce makes it easier for investors to store value compared to silver making it cheaper to store an equivalent dollar amount of value as for silver demand is more driven by industrial applications such as electronics and solar cells so in times of economic stability and general growth it performs better therefore depending on your specific situation you may decide to go for silver or gold taking into account the respective characteristics of each and the economic climate at the time of making your decision investors thinking of investing in gold or silver should carefully consider whether it really makes sense for them this may make sense in the short term or when there are specific imbalances in the respective precious metal markets silver and gold can function as safe havens but gold tends to do better over longer periods that said on shorter time frames the specific dynamics of each market end up being more important to their respective returns that's all for today let us know your views in the comments section below and don't forget to like this video before leaving thanks for watching
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