저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Marc Faber는 인플레이션 확대가 소비자 물가 상승을 통해 사회 불안을 촉발할 수 있다고 보며, 실물 금·은 등 귀금속을 개인이 직접 보유하는 것을 권한다. 금·은 가격은 2021년 이후 조정 국면을 거쳐 다시 강세장에 진입했다고 보지만, 강세장이 과거만큼 강하지는 않다고 평가한다. 금이 달러 기준 1800달러대 상단을 돌파해야 본격 복귀로 볼 수 있다는 차트 관점도 언급했다. 농산물(밀, 옥수수, 대두, 설탕)은 인플레이션 조정 기준으로 여전히 저평가되어 매력적이라고 본다. 코코아는 상대적으로 덜 올랐다고 언급. 기술주와 암호화폐 등 고평가 투기 섹터는 약화되고 있으며, 가치주가 회복될 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 신흥국에서도 유사한 흐름을 관찰했다고 말한다. 지수보다는 개별 종목의 능동적 선택이 유리하다는 입장. 재생에너지(풍력)의 비용과 오염 문제를 비판하고 우라늄 등 원전의 필요성을 주장했으며, 미국 정부 정책(교통장관 육아휴직 논란, 전기차 전환론 등)을 강하게 비판했다. 금리 측면에서는 실질금리가 현재 크게 마이너스이며, 전반적 경제 붕괴 같은 극단적 상황이 아니면 연준이 긴축하기 어렵다고 봤다. 중앙은행이 시장 충격 시 개입한다는 전제도 언급.
다듬은 글
i believe that as long as home prices go up and stock prices go up everybody is applauding because they're the illusionary wealth increases including mine and yours and everybody owned who owns shares and assets like gold and silver and bitcoin sensors but once household consumer prices go up that is the trigger point throughout history where people rebelled and were angry at the government you know that that food prices went up and so forth i led to unrest in the roman emperor empire in egypt in everywhere in the world and i think uh that this will lead also in the us to some uh disturbances in my opinion but you unders you have to understand you have in america a genius as a president what he will do he will distribute more money do he will increase the basic incomes and so forth and he will reduce further the police force which is a proof proven in the modern monetary theory and modern societal theory a measure to reduce crime you eliminate the police force that is the best way to eliminate crime and you put in judges that for them there is no crime everything is happening because someone has been victimized i have to say that this is a mystery for me that gold and silver and platinum as a store of value as a store value are not much higher because if you told me mark for the next few years it is unlikely that we will have real rates i have to say here there is one situation where you could get real rates up substantially from say currently minus six percent to three percent and that would be a general collapse in everything you know the oil prices collapse the economies collapse increasing collapses what would the response by central banks be and then you realize in in a as soon as there is a minor disturbance of asset prices they all step in like in august 2019 there wasn't a big problem in august 2019 there was some financial crisis but the fed stepped into the repo market and they start bridging money again and if the stock market drops 10 20 percent here in my view tightening will be out of the question and i have to say i think that anyone and that's what i've been saying anyone has to be his own central banker and hold some precious metals physically and for the more speculative minded investors or in addition to holding your core position in physical precious metals you can hold some stocks mining stocks that have of course a very significant upside potential if the bull market in gold has begun i mean we had a bull market until about one and a half years ago then the correction period i think the correction theory does come to an end and we are again in the bull market but the bull market i have to say is not as powerful as i would have expected yeah you can see here very well on this chart we had a correction now since september september 2021 down here and i would say it looks as if it's going to break out on the upside yeah it looks but who knows yeah is there a specific price point for gold that you're watching for in in us dollar terms that tells you the bull market's back on well you have there a triangle okay we have to preach this peak here yeah got to get through here i you know yeah a lot of people think you know it's getting back to eight you know the high 1800s getting above this mark that we you know we've got this clearly defined downtrend we gotta we gotta get above this spot right here to really be back on would you agree with that okay yeah i i would agree yeah but i have to say in an environment of so much money printing and uh and that i have to add inexperienced investors i'm not so sure that technical analysis is of great value anymore i look at every stock i ever buy i look at the chart i like stocks that have a long saucer bottom here i suspect that this was a correction period here from the peak down here that this is this was in an impulsive upward move here yeah and then here a correction i suspect but it hasn't been confirmed very clearly in my opinion and it's interesting what you do with the chart because by manipulating the chart it looks totally different if i had to look at the commodity that is very inexpensive i would say agricultural commodities are still very cheap inflation adjusted you know wheat nicone soybeans sugar and we had the bull market in coffee but cocoa hasn't gone up a lot so i think they're peripheral markets that are still attractive and i have to say recently someone sent me a highly important report about what clean energy does to the demand of energy do you understand if you want to go and produce you all your energy needs with windmills now just think a little bit clearly what kind of a society would believe that you can generate enough windmills to power on your energy needs you for that you need people that are completely illusionaries like the green slash communists they want green energy but they don't want uranium because it doesn't fit into the picture of a clean world any uranium but say you want a clean world called uranium but they want windmills windmills will will produce energy but they pollute much more than oil and gas and even coal because of the construction cost and the maintenance cost of the blades the blades and the total building of a mill is very expensive for solar powers what is the name of this transportation ministry in the us put the league the one that is married to another man yeah yeah because he needed he needed maternity leave children i mean you have you have to see a society that gives to someone who adopts child a man maternity leave and he's a minister of transportation when the bottlenecks everywhere and shortages and he needs maternity leave but this is the government that democracies create low-class ignorant and arrogant you know when you're a minister you should accept some responsibility to do the best of what you should be doing you are responsible for transportation including boards and trucking and so forth and what you do you take maternity leave that is true um this was the best joke for me in 2021 i hope it will be exceeded in 2022 because i was always worried when trump wasn't re-elected that i would have that i would have less opportunity to laugh because basically with trump there was always something to love but i have to say this administration has exceeded anything that has ever seen in u.s governments you know he says well if oil prices go up don't worry just change to an electric car but it doesn't realize or doesn't know or lies maybe the three of them that of course if oil prices go up if natural gas prices go up if coal prices go up the price of electricity also goes up i think the investment markets are now at the very crucial transition point if you look at the tech stocks that they're weakening the mean stocks are weakening even uh cryptos are weakening so the speculative sector the highly valued sector is coming down and value stocks seem to be coming back also in emerging markets i've observed this all over so i would be very concerned about indexes indexes you know i think they could be weakening and but within the market there will be lots of stocks that are today perceived as old value stocks that could come back and reward investors in others active management should reward investors
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