PETER SCHIFF Confirmed 100% 🚨 Economic Collapse..The Dollar Is LOSING..Hyperinflation

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한 줄 결론: 피터 쉬프는 인플레이션이 장기간 지속되고 더 악화될 것이며, 연준이 금리를 크게 올리지 못해 경제가 버티기 어렵다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 전망: 6.2% 인플레이션이 이번 10년 내내 지속되는 '인플레이션 10년'이 될 것이며 1970년대보다 더 나빠질 수 있다고 본다. 1980년 볼커-레이건식 해법은 지금 재현되기 어렵다고 본다. 금리 인상 불가론: 국가부채(약 30조 달러)가 단기국채(T-bill)로 조달되어 있어 금리를 10% 수준으로 올리면 3년 내 전체 부채 재융자가 필요해지고, 재정적자가 폭증해 경제가 붕괴한다고 주장한다. 미국은 과거 채권국에서 현재 최대 채무국이 되었고 무역적자도 사상 최대라고 지적한다. 정책 전망: 당국은 인플레이션을 '일시적(transitory)'이라 치부하다가 결국 '번영의 신호'라 말하고, 최종적으로 1970년대처럼 가격통제를 도입할 것이라고 예상한다. 정부가 CPI를 조작(품질 조정, 대체재 편입)해 수치를 낮춘다고 주장하며, 수입·수출 물가가 15~20%씩 오르고 있어 실제 물가가 더 높다고 본다. 비트코인: 어제 CPI 발표 후 비트코인이 신고가 약 6만9천 달러까지 올랐다가 8.5% 급락해 6만3천 달러 아래로 떨어졌다. 그는 이것이 고래들이 물량을 던지기 위한 조작이었다고 본다. 비트코인은 인플레이션 헤지가 아니며 과대평가된 밈주식과 같은 위험자산이라고 주장한다. 금: 금은 CPI 발표 후 약 18% 상승해 온스당 약 1,850달러로 5개월 만의 고점을 기록했다고 언급하며, 금이 인플레이션에 반응해 상승한 사례로 든다. 그는 금광주 비중이 크다고 밝힌다. 포트폴리오: 달러를 숏(매도)하고 있으며 투자는 대부분 해외자산(아시아·유럽·호주·뉴질랜드·남미)이다. 전날 미국 시장 하락에도 해외주는 상승했고, 금광주가 가장 큰 수익을 냈다. 구리주와 에너지 관련 자산도 인플레이션 헤지로 보유 중이다. 비트코인은 보유하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 원/달러·국내 종목·한국 금리는 언급되지 않았다.

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01. can you talk about the official numbers are 6.2 percent for inflation we can beat the drum all day how long do you think inflation's gonna last in this kind of environment with this six plus percent oh it's here for the duration i mean i mean this decade is going to be a big inflationary decade i mean it's it's going to get worse it's going to be much worse in the 70s i just don't see a way out really uh you know we got out of it with paul volcker and ronald reagan in uh you know 1980 i mean i don't see a reagan on the horizon in the white house we're not going to get another paul volcker uh and and even if we had paul volcker i mean what how could they raise rates i mean in in 1980 when the fed raised rates it only impacted the new budget deficits it didn't impact the national debt because the national debt was financed with 30-year treasury bonds today the national debt is financed with t-bills we got almost a 30 trillion dollar national debt if they had to jack interest rates up let's say even at 10 we would pretty much have to refinance the whole national debt in three years at 10 right now we've got it financed at you know like one percent two percent i mean really low where would the government get trillions of additional dollars to pay the interest on the debt plus we already have three four trillion dollar year deficits which would get much bigger if the fed actually raised interest rates to 10 what would happen to the economy i mean it would implode i mean think about the real estate market the stock market i mean everything would collapse so the deficits would skyrocket and of course how would they pay the interest so we're in a position where we can't raise rates in 1980 america still had trade surpluses now we have huge record trade deficits in 1980 america was the world's biggest creditor nation now we're the world's biggest debtor nation there's no way we can survive the cure for inflation the cure for inflation would kill the economy which is why we're not going to get it which is why inflation is here to stay and it's going to keep getting worse and all the people can do or the powers that be is rationalize it kind of dismiss it it's transitory and eventually when they can't claim it's transitory anymore they'll say it's a good thing it's a sign of our prosperity it's just a price we have to pay for a strong growing economy you know they're going to keep on saying all that until eventually they're going to go with the price controls you know we did that early on in the 1970s you know inflation is already worse today than it was when nixon put wage and price controls on how high do you think inflation can go in the future well how high is it really going to go or how high will the government admit because they can keep doctoring that cpi right because i think you know it's already probably you know 10 15 for um 2021.

02. i mean if you look at the import export prices because those things aren't you know manipulated as much as the cpi that's what you're seeing look at the price of imports and exports are soaring like 15 to 20 percent you know this year uh so that's probably a better indication of what's actually going on uh but you know i think even the way the government measures inflation we could end up moving in better digits but by the time the cpi is registering 10 or 10 you know we're going to be over 20 peter i have two questions one what is the next step in their view this is me allowing you to create a receipt that we can come back to later as they continue to doctor the cpi number what's the most likely thing they do next to try to keep that number uh kind of sub 10 well i don't know they could they could find new ways of changing the index you know introducing more uh hedonics you know claiming that things are getting better that the quality is improving of course they'll ignore all the examples where the equality is is being diminished uh and they can also substitute more things you know and just say oh well the price of meat went way up so you know let's just people are eating chicken you know they're not you know and so but then eventually it's like well they're not eating chicken they're eating dog food but that's okay because they're still eating so you know there's no inflation uh they can just keep you know taking things out of the basket that are going up and and throwing other things in there uh to try to pretend that that prices aren't rising uh but you know the public's gonna see it you know they're there i mean that's one thing they're smart enough to figure out is what they're paying for stuff and you know there's all there's a limit to how small the packaging can get because initially you've got the um the the companies try to put the price increases through by just diminishing the quantity you know but then you open up a box of cereal and you know the top three quarters of the box is just cardboard right this cereal doesn't start you know so it's there's only there's there's only so small you can make the packaging you know and they do that you know how i mean how many sheets can you take out of a roll of toilet paper i mean you can't sell toilet paper by the sheet right all right it's like a slice of pizza like you know but uh so at some point they just got to raise the prices you tweeted that gold was up 18 yesterday and you were taking a victory lap on the internet 18 just fell out of my pocket what are you doing on the internet with your 18 of golden why are you celebrating that no no i wasn't just celebrating anything and first of all you know i own a lot of things in addition to gold i mean you think you know i got i gold is a small part of my portfolio right i mean i have a lot of gold stocks so in that respect that's a pretty big part you said in reaction to hotter than expected inflation data gold rose 18 closing near 1 850 per ounce it's the highest level in five months but while bitcoin initially pumped to a new all-time high bitcoin hit an all-time high close to 69 000 the ensuing dump senate tumbling 8.5 percent back below 63 000 at the low i don't know that sounds like a victory lap 18 near a fall the point i was making uh anthony the point i was making you're squirming is that gold gold actually reacted to higher inflation by going up bitcoin reacted to it by going down now what happened initially is i think some of the whales that want to unload bitcoin the minute they saw that hot print they're like okay let's buy some bitcoin and try to get some excitement around this inflation number gold's going up let's make bitcoin go up and they come in there and they buy and they get people oh you see even my son got excited look dad look at bitcoin going up on the inflation numbers right so they got all this excitement and as soon as they got the herd all excited then they dumped it right they took advantage of the pump and they came out big time selling their bitcoin and it went crashing down so i think the whole initial move up was all the manipulated attempt to unload bitcoin it wasn't like ah you see bitcoin is reacting to the inflation is bitcoin's got nothing to do with inflation it's not inflation hedge it's not a commodity it's not a real asset you know it's just it's just a you know it's it's a risk asset and it goes up when people want to buy it you know it doesn't have anything to do with inflation anything with other commodities i don't have anything to do with the gold but obviously that's part of the story that's part of the phony narrative that's used to generate demand for bitcoin is that it's gold uh and but they were able to manipulate it up but the fact that it got killed so strongly i showed you that there are people that were waiting to sell that spike and i think the people who sold it are the same people who helped create it now maybe they don't use the same wallets you know maybe they have some wallets where they buy and then they have other wallets where they dump uh but it seemed to me that that's exactly what was going on all right are you last question for you and then we got to go we got other things to do you were late so you know i got i got all kinds of i love it you didn't send us the link no i sent you a link six times uh did are you changing anything about your portfolio after the uh cpi print yesterday no i mean my portfolio went up you know be you know although you know interestingly the dollar the dollar went up and again that shouldn't be happening the dollar had a big update yesterday on the cpi which of course inflation lets you know that the dollar is losing value so the fact that the dollar is losing purchasing power faster is not bullish for the dollar it's bearish but again the currency traders bit up the dollar because they expect the fed to successfully fight off inflation they're wrong as i said earlier so you know but i'm short the dollar and that all of my investments are international so i have all my stuff in asia and europe and australia new zealand you know south america so i i got these foreign assets but by and large uh my fault most of my foreign stocks were up yesterday even as the u.s market was down but the biggest winners were the gold stocks they're all up again today but now you know some of my copper stocks and uh you know are having a bigger a bigger days today than than my gold stocks uh you know i also have a lot of energy exposure i have a lot of assets that i think are going to be real inflation hedges that's why i don't own any bitcoin i don't think bitcoin is an inflation hedge even though some people think it is uh you know it's i think i look at bitcoin like any of these other overpriced meme stocks i mean they can keep going up uh so long as you know the crowd uh you know is gonna believe the story uh but eventually uh you know reality sets in i'm just not smart enough to know when you