저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 워시 의장의 긴축 발언에도 실제 대차대조표는 확대되고 있어 신뢰성이 없다고 주장. 금값·은값 하락은 매수 기회이며, 달러 강세도 실현되지 않을 기대에 기반한다고 봄. 미국이 일본과 같은 궤적이며 2026년 달러 붕괴 가능성을 경고. 일본 엔화 붕괴 시 일본 외환보유액(약 1.2조 달러, 대부분 미국채) 문제가 위기로 번질 수 있다고 봄. 정치인·중앙은행의 책임 회피를 비판하며 이른바 복지 수혜자 문제 등 정치 논쟁으로 확장.
다듬은 글
Gold sold off about 50 bucks. So, gold's around 4135. Silver's down 58 cents. None of these politicians are willing to do what it takes to actually solve the problems that they created. It's a vicious cycle that you can't get out of. So, and this is a look into America's future because we're on the same trajectory as Japan.
We just don't have a big stockpile of foreign assets. We could try to sell our gold. That that would open up a whole new can of worms for the United States. Gold has sold off again is just an opportunity for people to buy more. The balance sheet expanded by another 11 billion. Warsh is there. They don't care if it crashes after somebody else takes the wheel.
They just want to make sure they don't get blamed for it. Just to pay interest on the national debt. This is an incredible crisis in the making. I think that there is a chance that you see pronounced weakness. If the yen breaks down here, this is a big deal. This is a crisis. Japanese government has about 1.2 trillion in foreign reserves.
Vast majority in US Treasuries. That's a disaster waiting to happen. Now, the gold market, again, is still not reflecting this. In fact, when our markets were closed yesterday, gold was Well, not yesterday, Friday. Gold sold off about 50 bucks. Uh a lot of that, again, is based on the tough talk uh uh um uh from uh Warsh about fighting inflation and price stability.
And as I'm recording this podcast, gold's down another 18 bucks on top of the 50. So, gold's around 4135. Silver's down 58 cents. It was down over a buck Friday. So, trading just over 64. I don't believe any of this tough talk. It's easy to talk tough. The hard part is to walk that walk. It's not going to happen.
He's just trying to gain some credibility. He's the new sheriff in town. He's going to try to make a lot of noise. It's going to be different, right? I'm going to I'm going to get rid of inflation. I'm going to do what Powell failed to do. No, he's not. Because for the same reason Powell failed, Walsh will fail.
Because he can't fight inflation. Actually, he can't shrink the balance sheet. He can't raise interest rates high enough for the same reason that Japan can't do it. And that's why they're not doing it. None of these politicians are willing to do what it takes to actually solve the problems that they created.
The one thing they can do is pretend that they're willing to solve them, but they can't actually try without exposing the real gravity of the situation that they don't want to acknowledge. So, the fact that gold has sold off again is just an opportunity for people to buy more. The strength in the dollar is the same thing.
The dollar has strengthened somewhat based on an expectation that will not happen. as inflation discipline, but markets still react like liquidity never truly left. As Peter Schiff points out, a sharp drop in gold alongside aggressive policy language may signal belief in future tightening rather than actual tightening.
The contradiction appears when balance sheet constraints and debt servicing realities limit how far policy can go. Savers chasing short-term dollar strength may miss what repricing looks like once credibility collides with arithmetic. Next, Peter Schiff examines what central bank positioning suggests about confidence versus capability.
And even if uh the Fed does come through with a couple of quarter point rate hikes, it doesn't matter. It's spitting in the ocean. What the Fed would need to do with interest rates and its balance sheet, it's not going to do. In fact, if you look at the government balance sheet, we got the numbers again uh last week.
The balance sheet expanded by another 11 billion. Warsh is there. He's the chair of the Fed. Why did he expand the balance sheet last week? What's he waiting for? If he's going to be tough on inflation, why not get tough now? Again, why didn't he already raise rates? Why did Why didn't he vote for a rate hike in his first meeting?
Because he doesn't want to. He wants to talk about it, sure. He wants to get credit for talking, but he doesn't want to actually act because he doesn't want to have to deal with the consequences of acting, but the consequences of not acting are going to be much worse. Just like the consequences of Japan not acting are going to be worse for Japan.
So, why don't they act? For the same reason that our politicians and our bankers don't act. Because they don't want to deal with the problem today. They want to kick the can down the road and hope somebody else deals with it tomorrow. Even though the somebody else deals with a bigger problem with even more profound consequences, they don't care because these are politicians.
They don't care about what actually happens to the country. They just care about what happens while they're at the helm of the ship. Right? They don't care if it crashes after somebody else takes the wheel. They just want to make sure they don't get blamed for it. But you know what? Everybody who's had the wheel is to blame.
Markets reward the speech today and transfer the cost to savers tomorrow. According to Peter Schiff, the real signal is not the rate rhetoric, but where balance sheet expansion continues beneath the surface. Institutions rarely wait for official policy pivots. They reposition when policy statements and policy actions begin to diverge.
Investors focused only on headlines risk mistaking delay for resolution while underlying debt pressures continue to build. Next, Peter Schiff explains the point at which policy support may lose effectiveness and markets begin forcing the adjustment themselves. All of the past Fed chairman, all the past presidents, and the BOJ, and the prime minister of Japan that have continued on this path, they all are to blame.
Everybody has had the ability to do something about it, yet nobody did. And unfortunately, you know, academia doesn't hold people accountable, the investment community doesn't hold anybody accountable because nobody wants to upset the apple cart because a lot of people are getting rich off of this. And so they don't want to do anything to disrupt that gravy train, even though at the end the gravy train is going off the edge of a cliff.
You know, um A- A- Adam Schiff, you know, he probably looks at all the people on welfare and food stamps, oh, these are the deserving people. What do they deserve? What are they doing? They're not doing anything. Talk about paying your fair share. Those are the people who don't pay their fair share.
People living off of government. People who don't even have jobs. People who just get a check from the government. Why doesn't the left ever say, "Hey, you're on welfare, you're on food stamps, you need to pay your fair share. You need to do something. You need to contribute to society." No, they look at the people who are contributing the most to society, who are paying the most amount of taxes, and those are the ones that supposedly aren't doing their fair share.
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