저자: Kevin · 외국인
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딥시크 발 AI 반도체 급락은 훈련비용보다 추론 효율화 문제이며, 실제 영향은 데이터센터 CAPEX 감소 여부에 달림. ASML 실적은 양호했고 엔비디아 매출의 데이터센터 의존도가 높아 CAPEX 10% 감소도 큰 타격이라 주장. 연준은 disinflation 확인 및 관세 우려 완화를 기대하며 금리인하 불필요 시사. 테슬라는 FSD·옵티머스·에너지 사업 기대감이 주가를 견인한다고 봄. 메타·마이크로소프트는 효율화로 마진 개선 발언 예상.
다듬은 글
quick heads up the alpha report has been so popular we're going to be incorporating it into the trumponomics course for free at the end of February so if you're not a trumponomics course member you're going to want to become a trumponomics course member go to meetkevin.com bump the coupon code a couple days to give you that chance to get in before we move the alpha report into course members only and that'll be all existing course members in the trumponomics course oh boy is deep seek a scam could it be that deep seek AI gets osed as a scam and what is that going to mean potentially for a reversal of all of the woses that artificial intelligence stocks got hit with specifically the chip making uh and designing companies over the last couple days we'll talk about that we'll also talk about asml earnings do they tell us anything about the future of artificial intelligence capex a little bit with Nvidia and expectations for the next 5 years on capex as well then we've got to talk about the Federal Reserve what to expect today what Donald Trump just did and of course a little bit of an earnings preview with what to look for from Tesla meta and Microsoft so today we're actually going to start with the joke of the day which is a nonprofit brought us a $20 a month app called artificial intelligence and a hedge fund brought us an open source version of the same thing anyway I think that's actually kind of ironic so I had to bring it up and include that as our joke of the day isn't it a little weird that a hedge fund in China brought us a free open-source platform for artificial intelligence while this is leading some like Bill Amman to say ah something sus here how about if you're a hedge fund you set up a bunch of shorts on Nvidia and then you say you've trained a a model equivalent to an open AI which has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on training for a fraction of the cost in fact potentially as much as 20 to 40 times more efficient now while I respect Bill amman's Jade I also know he was complaining all day long on the day Nvidia was down and I don't think that's because he has Nvidia exposure I think it's because he has a lot of Google exposure and Google's been spending a lot of money uh on on artificial intelligence infrastructure I'm not exactly sure what kind of short-term bets he's got going on or what's going on but usually associate any of his emotion with his trading uh kind of like what we saw during the co pandemic and also the 5% treasury disaster this is straight Market manipulation but I guess it's legal for hedge funds to do it including Phil acman uh but anyway uh yeah look I mean is it possible that deep seek is a scam of course in fact on the first day that we were covering deep seek uh which was well we covered it Friday we covered it this weekend we covered it Monday after the shock covered it every single day we've been saying all that's really going to take for AI and artificial intelligence stocks to really rebound is somebody coming out going look this is a scam I thought it was going to be Elon but there were a lot of other people and elon's been relatively quiet on it which kind of leads me to think it's not a scam since he's usually the first to say it's a scam but anyway we talked about that yesterday what's more important uh is that doesn't matter if the $5 million 5.6 million to spend for training for deep seek was a scam the answer here in my opinion is no because the inference side is going to be what ends up in my opinion using more compute and frankly on the inference side deep seek is actually substantially more efficient in the way it handles artificial intelligence data and the models by basically parsing segments of the model and only using the part of the model that's relevant to your query this leads to running a significantly more efficient model and it really doesn't matter and as I've been saying since day one it doesn't really matter if deep seek ends up uh you know having lied to us about what kind of chips they're using I don't really care how they trained it or what they spent they've created a substantially more efficient way of providing artificial intelligence data now don't get me wrong I don't actually think that stocks are all going to plummet and continue to plummet related to deep seek such as Nvidia or the chipmakers asml had a fantastic morning talk about those earnings in just a moment uh and I've been saying that for a few days mostly because it's going to take significant time time for CEOs to wake up to oh we could do this a lot more efficiently either the way take a look on screen here this is directly from my Alpha report which will be included in the trumponomics course for free you want to get that before the price goes up a lot look at this trades today pay close attention to that rectangle of Nvidia 12559 12250 very important that rectangle is where Nvidia usually gets stuck and you generally get a big bounce or a big rejection off of it what was my prediction look at it here deep seek bounce expect a bounce today why it will take weeks to months for capex Investments fall to fall which I expect they will consider how the process will play out now you could read this right here but the point is this is just a sample of the meet Kevin Alpha report that I sent it every day the market is open I also pitched that Apple was probably going to be a big beneficiary before it started moving up I pitched it when Apple was red on the Deep seek morning and it turned substantially green afterwards over the last few days these are the kind of insights I provide in the meetkevin alpha report you can get it for free as a sample if you want over at meetkevin.com and you get a two-day sample if you want to get in before we raise the prices on the trumponomics course at me kevin.com but for now feel free to at least sign up for the alpha report for free you get a text and an email and you'll keep getting those if you're in the trumponomics course uh starting in March so at the end of February we're moving it just to trumponomics members anyway go get that coupon over at meetkevin.com extended for two days oh we don't actually need as many orders okay let's pull back some of those orders and then tsm's got to wake up and then asml all of that that entire process I expect to take 3 to six months maybe even a year long this is why yesterday I talked about sort of the parasite having been planted that's slowly growing and slowly eating around eating up that future artificial intelligence demand uh for chips from the inside out and keep this in mind I I I don't know that all of us might have a scale of just how much this artificial intelligence uh spend matters but somebody left a comment yesterday and they said Kavin you know Nvidia still creates gpus for gamers like does that not matter any more uh the answer to that is not so much I mean yes it matters somewhat but not so much it matters maybe about 10% why well just look at nvidia's expected spend over the next 5 years that is spend on Nvidia products over the next 5 years compared to what Nvidia did in the last years uh you know before the AI movement so before the AI movement so really before 2023 Nvidia brought in just about $83 billion well in the 5 years ending 2029 Nvidia is expected to bring in$ 1.06 trillion so a little more than 11x because of data center spend so you can see this is a stock that's heavily propped up on data center spend anything that makes data centers spend plummet even 10% is actually going to absorb or basically zero out everything you're doing with gaming style chips all you need is a 10% cut in data center spend over the next 5 years boom all the gaming stuff is out the window it's almost like you don't even have that side of the business that's only a 10% decline that's wild now the financial times is claiming that open aai did find evidence that Chinese artificial intelligence startup deep seek did end end up using uh the US company's proprietary models to train its own open source competitor that's a quote from the financial times Microsoft is investigating this as well some argue that either the open aai uh API was used to just milk all the data open AI has or that a process of distillation was used where basically a smaller cheaper model uses the outputs of the larger more expensive model to help it reinforce learn or to teach itself how it should be responding maybe could it be fine again I stick to my guns that ultimately when you have a more efficient inference Model A lot of people are going to adopt that a lot of companies are going to adopt that and frankly it's a good thing it's a good thing for everyone less spending is a good thing ultimately because it means we could spend more money on things that are actually going to be Innovative rather than throwing good money after things that just aren't necessary anymore like so many data centers if we need let me let me simplify that let's say our society for the best like the best rewards for society in America or even the world are 100 data centers and right now we're on the trajectory towards building a thousand data centers we really have an excess supply of 900 data centers and I'm making those numbers up right do those extra 900 really benefit Society no so get rid of them right that's wasted money that could be used towards other Innovative things like urine cancer and I don't know that today's llms will actually be able to do that I still think we're in the chatbot agent bot phase and it's it's just not that great but we'll see asml bookings did surge though in part well actually heavily in part because of artificial intelligence uh their margins are 51.7% on gross margin for their artificial intelligence chip making machines basically they're like the machine that makes the machine that was over the 49.6% expected really really good net incomes up 30% they sold 132 lithography units versus 121 expected just remember oh those are Q4 numbers right so n none of this is really expected to even be post deep seek yet they do argue that deep seek is good because it means lower costs will bring lower applications so worth noting another company here saying oh this looks good Andre and Horwitz says Hey the Steep seek thing is the Sputnik moment you've got um a Microsoft s Nadel you've got some Sam Alman a lot of people Nvidia applauding the efficiencies found in deep seek so even though you've got this sort of like thing going on the background where you've got the crypto are David Sachs of the White House now uh saying oh yeah um we are uh seeing uh you know there's substantial evidence that deep seek probably just stole our data doesn't matter the product itself is still more efficient we can learn from it and use it so we'll see what happens but that's the latest on deep seek now today we do have a Federal Reserve meeting so keep this in mind Nick T sees that December core PC Rose just .8% or 2.2% annualized 12mth rate at 2.8% 6 month and 3 month at just 2.3 now that's good but here's what we need in my opinion going forward and I think this is actually pretty important what we need from Powell is a progress on disinflation we just want to hear him talk about that hey things are looking good we want comments that tariffs so far have been slower moving than expected which is really important because as of December 18th the Federal Reserve is starting to pre- pric in Trump tariffs which is not great so we want to see we want to see a relaxation here of this tariff talk uh we do not want a suggestion of a rate increase that would be very bad we want a reiteration that the economy is doing great jobs are strong no rate cuts are needed the layoffs from the federal res you know federal government aren't going to be really bad and everything is fine now why do I say that well because remember and and we'll talk about this in a moment but Donald Trump offered basically leave to a bunch of federal workers I'll go into the details in just a moment on this but think about the combination that we're setting up here there's less pricing power at companies trade tariffs which both of these are anti-growth right at least initially uh Germany China and UK are are close to a recession uh then you've got government firings layoffs and quits all which have actually been supportive of jobs over the last few months especially with the election and then you've got lower AI cap in my opinion coming soon I kind of think you're burning the candle of what's left of a good economy at all ends you're like you're literally crushing all sides and shrinking the economy I don't know how we're still going to have a positive GDP if all this stuff continues but oh well uh so Powell though he's going to tell us about how everything's fine and GDP is doing great and and growth everything's doing you know superb uh and so therefore while we don't need rate hikes nothing is off the table uh and uh we'll just take it meeting by meeting for rate Cuts I really think Jerome Powell doesn't have to F this meeting up just take it easy don't make any crazy scary announcements and just move on now when it comes to a Tesla earnings preview look usually Tesla earnings predictions revolve around the deliveries which we obviously already have uh and then subsequently vehicle grows margins that's usually what Tesla matters about but that's not really the case for Tesla right now Tesla has not been moving off of car sales though it may be slightly moving off of hope that there could be a lower cost vehicle you know announced I'm going to hold my breath on a lower cost vehicle I think a lower cost model that's been sort of teased in the earnings presentations really just refers to lower cost cyber trucks and model y like technically the refresh model Y is considered a a new model right anyway the EV tax credit isn't gone yet and uh well while we have to talk about the EV tax credit I I want to quickly announce that make sure you get into that trumponomics course because the amazing Alpha report that we do every day starting at the end of February that is going to be included for just course members so if you get into trumponomics you will be guaranteed locked into that Alpha report every single morning uh where you get some uh some setups for for trade ideas for the day but then when you're in trumponomics you also get the alerts for when I'm trading uh with a trading challenge that we've got starting February 1st so make sure you're in uh as a result of this announcement we are doing a slight two-day extension here on the trumponomics coupon code my birthday was yesterday I forgot to mention that we're making this change with uh with the alpha report oopsies uh it's because I was going to post another video yesterday but instead Jack and I decided to play Flight Simulator and go to Cheesecake Factory together for birthday dinner so I apologize about that but anyway uh yes that that is been updated so go to me kevin.com to check that out uh and uh that will guarantee you access to the alpha report uh for no ongoing cost uh and you can also preview the alpha report if you want uh just go to meetkevin.com well actually honestly yeah just go to meetkevin.com at the bottom just sign up for the alpha report that's the easiest way to preview it uh if you sign up after the Market opens today you'll get your first Alpha report tomorrow anyway okay uh full self-driving uh updates are really going to be what matter here as well as humanoid robotic updates uh this is not just my opinion Bloomberg intelligence agrees with this the stock Tesla stock hasn't been moving because the car sales grow you know the EV tax credits are likely to affect and slow down car sales but the stock hasn't really moved down because of concerns over that it's been moving up because of excitement over self-driving cars and this is actually why and no surprise but Elon Musk and Tesla AI have been tweeting about how um Teslas are now driving themselves to the port to end up getting shipped uh and uh they're doing this on purpose on earnings day because well Frank this is what's driving the stock right now so it's kind of smart but it also shows progress so it's it's like shrewd but it's also uh you know kind of exciting I do think it's interesting that they are 3x speeding this because I feel like this should be normal speed so they're going really really slow but that's okay you know it's it's self-driving it's awesome I'm a big fan of it and I'm very excited about it uh but anyway so uh look the other thing that we're going to to see are probably incredible margins on energy uh and substantial energy deployment growth we've already seen the deployment growth and it keeps growing uh it's going to keep growing to 25 to 50% of Tesla's future earnings until we get Cyber cabs and Robo taxis and well same thing and then humanoid robotics uh but right now it represents about 20% of Tesla's operating income today it's already producing over $300 million a quarter you know batteries batteries batteries batteries Mega packs and home batteries they're great and Tesla has pricing power for batteries like do people really want a solar system that's Tesla or a solar panel that's puzzled together with Q cells from Germany and N phase chips I mean as much as I love n phase I have to say Tesla has more pricing power than n phase when it comes to what a 25 to 55y old dudes want that doesn't mean end phase is bad I actually think it's a fantastic investment at a very very low cost but uh and and over time as rates come down it'll be a lot more desirable but that's really a topic for a different video uh but I do think we're going to get some updates on energy we'll get more FSD progress I really think there's a 90% chance that Elon Musk really yaps up FSD progress and how great things are going I also expect optimism about Optimus how it's already doing amazing things and uh that there are mass production goals later this year maybe even he'll say Hey you know we're going to be spending a lot of cash on capex uh for robots so maybe we'll have to raise money or whatever I don't he could do a warning like that maybe maybe not but I would say some kind of suggestion that there'll be increased capex for Optimus is like 70% likely but that'll actually be cheered because people want more Optimus development I I think there's only a 30% chance we get some kind of excitement over an actual new model if there is a new model it could do very well for the stock just because it's not really fully priced in and it could be true that other EV manufacturers are just going to go away because of the removal of the EV tax credit which would mean that elon's right about the EV tax credit ironically getting removed and helping Tesla because you've got companies like stellantis that are like yeah we're going to scale back our EV plans and make more new industrial um uh internal combustion engine Vehicles ice vehicles I was like okay wow you yall really going backwards okay anyway Tesla earnings expectations 75.4 cents of adjusted EPS 27.2 billion of expected Revenue net income 2.66 billion expected looking at 8.49 % expected volatility in average selling price of about 4,962 want margins to be at least 18.5% and we'll probably get some updates on Cyber Truck Sales slowing down a little bit but I think Elon will sort of wash that and clean that by arguing oh uh uh we use those in the Palisades fire so yeah yeah no no sales haven't slowed down okay uh anyway uh meta reports earnings today along with Microsoft the most important things to look for here aren't necessarily whether they beat or Miss honestly everybody is going to look for the bullish commentary about how these companies are both going to be able to have higher profit margins with the efficiencies discovered by Deep seek that they can Implement I almost certainly expect that they're going to say that and then I Would Be watchful for what they say on capex I actually think they'll probably say something like we're looking into how we can become more efficient but uh our capex plans remain unchanged at the moment uh so some kind of like brush off like that it's only been two days it's way too soon to really make any kind of planning but remember these are super high margin soft businesses especially Microsoft so lower AI costs actually help them boost their margins even more and and they they both have massive staying power right now big PP uh as far as some Trump updates Donald Trump did offer incentives to 2.3 million federal workers the civilian side with the exception of the USPS and and certain uh critical segments I think it was immigration National Security related and USPS so post office uh but anyway uh you can basically stay in your job until September 30th 2025 work from home is acceptable uh it's it's sort of a backward door to firing people because the federal government actually has a lot of protections for federal government workers who are not on probation it's actually why the Trump Administration has already asked administrators to let people like let the Trump Administration know a list of workers that are on probation because they're probably all going to get fired but you have the rights to re statement the right to file an appeal the right to file a complaint uh you have to get 30 days notice you have to be given a detailed description of your alleged misconduct uh you have to have the right to respond to the evidence against you like it's actually really hard to fire a federal worker and that's why they're doing it this way to make it easier to fire someone it's like hey please just reply to the email saying I resign that's literally what they're asking people to do uh and then we'll just keep paying you until September 30th but any if you say that anytime between now and then we can just fire you basically they're turning you into an at will employee but hey you could get 9 month well 6 months worth of pay and get another job at the same time like you could literally keep getting paid and get another job at the same time the problem is the people who do that early will benefit the most everybody who Waits until the end when you know the unemployment rate starts skyrocketing because of stuff like this and everybody's competing for jobs in the open market well that's going to create a little poopy doopy around uh the latter part of the year so I think if you're going to do this or you think your job is at risk of the federal government the sooner you do it the probably the better because you'll you'll have a better chance of getting a job quickly before it becomes hard to find another job that's that's my take here so I I think that's somewhat important uh we also have a federal district court judge that froze Donald Trump's Grant frees and Loan frees okay fine that'll get reviewed between now and February 3rd but uh that's it so we're going to be covering the FED today we'll cover earnings today so make sure you're here at the channel subscribe to to the channel we'll cover those later look forward to seeing you so we'll keep today a little bit shorter here in the morning uh and we'll see you soon folks thank you so much for being here I love you all appreciate your support uh and uh go check out that U uh course over at me
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