저자: Kevin · 외국인
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딥시크 R1 충격 이후 칩주 급락의 과잉반응 여부를 분석. 딥시크는 추론 시 모델 일부만 사용해 연산 비용을 크게 줄였고, 이는 엔비디아 등 칩 수요에 역풍일 수 있음. 반면 수요가 늘면 칩 수요 증가 가능성도 있어 단정 불가. 애플 등 로컬 AI 기기 수혜 가능성 언급. 마이크로스트래티지는 비트코인 추가 매입 중. 머스크 침묵 해석, 연준·관세·테슬라 옵티머스 이슈도 다룸.
다듬은 글
should you buy the dip that happened in yesterday's stock market and get back into those chip stocks or add to those chip stocks that just utterly tanked yesterday what are the reactions of people like Sam Alman Nvidia Elon Musk Donald Trump what kind of new tariffs are we now expecting including potentially an Iron Dome and some other executive orders will cover from Trump we'll cover all of this related to deep seek as well as what the popular arguments are now remember yesterday we had a reaction day and we're going to go through today what the popular opinions are now after people have had some time to digest everything about deep seek so we're going to look was this an overreaction is this a buying opportunity is this a real problem we'll analyze it all we also I quickly will'll get it out of the way I want to talk about the micro strategy shelf uh and some price action and then we'll also have an update on the Tesla Optimus towards the end of the video along with our typical d Daily Wealth on today's me Kevin report news that makes uh so uh first micro strategy yesterday uh they uh they issued an update on their shelf offering it's actually very interesting if you look at it because what the Shelf offering shows you is that they had over the period of January 1 to January 26th spent about $ 1.1 billion in cash to buy another 10,000 Bitcoin for a cost of about $15.5 th000 per for Bitcoin uh and uh they they had another 4.35 billion of shares available for issuance as of the morning of the 27th in my opinion micro strategy actually fell as much as 8% yesterday because they sold stock to raise cash and then they bought Bitcoin and as Bitcoin went up because they hold you know over 470,000 Bitcoin as Bitcoin bottomed around 2 p.m.
so did micro strategy with big buys coming in at 3 p.m. micro strategy also following up I kind of think it's interesting to look at some people look at it and say oh my gosh how much longer can they keep basically selling Bitcoin for two times what it's worth by selling their stock other people buying it but then of course you have the debate around oh but they have software technology other people say oh but they're losing money anyway it's an interesting thing to pay attention to but maybe not quite as interesting as the potential that Elon Musk is pooping bricks when it comes to deep seek yeah we got to go into this one in detail and look this is going to be entertaining today's my birthday by the way so I'm excited for the entertainment of a birthday 33 we have uh meet Kevin coupon code going for uh anybody who wants any of the courses on building your wealth trumponomics trade alerts check it out over at Meek kevin.com we'll keep the pit short because it's the birthday let's talk about Elon mus pooping absolute breaks so xai raised billion in May at a $24 billion valuation uh and then they ended up raising another 6 billion after that uh I'm sorry another $5 billion at a $50 billion valuation in November so in other words the valuation doubled and they raised roughly the same amount of money and they have about 100,000 h100s that they use to train Gro the systems called Colossus some say that Elon could be really really quiet about deep seek on purpose because he's freaking out that the valuation at xai just got reamed now I don't know that necessarily this is true so what I wanted to do was get some hints from what Elon Musk is essentially up to on Twitter or x uh and what I found was that Elon Musk didn't actually tweet very much he at one point expressed to Jade about uh potentially uh this Chinese firm running deep seek the hedge fund having a bunch of h100s in other words suggesting that they didn't train this on the older uh lesser chips they trained them on h100s they have a lot of and that's fine the reality is whether they used h100s or some older versions of chips that doesn't actually matter as much for this situation and you'll find that's true in just a moment as we go through H that that that may not have anything to do with what's going on here but here were some of his actual replies so look at this and then help me understand what you think he's up to so what do we have here he retweeted jack dorsy saying open source everything okay that's interesting because xai doesn't open source their uh Gro huh but retweets that everything should be open sourced okay then he trolls Jim Kramer on nvidia's collapse because Jim Kramer ended up tweeting on the 22nd that nvidia's basically been trading sideways and it's setting up for a breakout and then Elon Musk yesterday wrote no kidding you obviously trolling given that in video was down 15 plus% yesterday then the only person that Elon Musk actually replied to about deep seek was this guy Gavin Barker now Gavin Barker in his message says that grock looms large and he basically talks about how amazing grock is and St tuned for grock 3 because in a few weeks it'll be epic and it'll be so good that it might be able to cure cancer well that's a very nice thing to say about elon's Gro to which of course Elon replied this is the only deep seek related like directly related to deep seek reply I could find Elon goes interesting analysis best I've seen H okay so the best analysis you've seen is the one that basically says grock's going to cure cancer got it okay and then AI spelled as AJ will be everywhere except uh small little detail Gavin Barker is also a reportedly large investor in xai and a hedge fund manager and he's been pumping up Gro for many months oops it's kind of interesting so this has a lot of people sort of putting together this thesis that elon's been pretty dead quiet on deep seek I mean other than throwing Jade around what chips they're using which really doesn't matter making fun of Jim Kramer which everybody does and then pumping up an investor in xai he basically hasn't said anything which is interesting because most of the time you hear Elon Musk say something like oh no no that's fake news or that's a scam or something I actually think Elon has looked at this model and gone damn they actually did something great with a lot less are we wasting money on Nvidia chips that's my take now that becomes very very important for deep seek because remember deep seek is all about reducing the cost of either training or even inference now that becomes important that'll be a debate we'll talk about in a moment but if companies led by people like Elon Musk start going dang we now have too many h100s or too many chips we don't need this many chips they're not going to dump these chips or sell them they'll make do with what they they have they'll figure something out to do with them but they'll certainly be thinking about how to become more efficient in fact that's exactly what Sam Alman said see Sam Alman actually called the model impressive and then went out of his way to say hey by the way don't worry we've got some cool announcements coming up including uh you know basically more you know we'll be working on making things more efficient ourselves as well take a look at this deep seek R1 is an impressive model it's an open source model he could have easily bagged on deep seek Sam Alman so could Elon Musk but they're not the big leaders in AI are telling you crap this is this is actually really good deep seek is an impressive model particularly around what they're able to deliver for the price we will obviously deliver much better models and it's also invigorating to have a new competitor so we'll pull up some releases it's sort of implying like don't worry we' we've got you know things in the bag so to speak ready to release but mostly we're excited to continue to execute our research road map and believe more compute is more important now than ever before sure this is one of the arguments we're going to break down is more compute going to be required now after deep seek than before but fascinatingly you actually end up also having Donald Trump then chime in and say hey this is actually very uh much a wake-up call to Americans we are behind uh some VCS call this the Sputnik moment where Russia was basically 10 years ahead of us in their lunar program of course we did land on the Moon and they didn't but anyway uh it was a wakeup call and it was like wow okay yeah other countries can actually get ahead of us and so Donald Trump is like hey this is a wakeup call we all should figure out how to learn what we can here and get better uh oh and uh by the way Donald Trump ends up saying hey a lot of companies will end up saving billions of dollars this is great news so Trump actually sees it from a typical sort of like almost real estate developer where he's like hey if you could save money why spend more money like let's stupid proof it for a moment if you have 500 nails and you get a permit or you only need or want one house and you need 100 nails to build the house obviously I'm oversimplifying here right are you going to use more than 100 Nails maybe you'll use 110 because you dropped a few right and obviously I'm making up the numbers right but you'll have about 400 extra Nails it's sort of like having extra usage available to you on chat GPT like are you really burning through all of your AI usage that's available right now let's say an innovation comes along in construction and it just takes five nails to build your house together well I mean that's wonderful you've just saved uh 95 nails now you have an extra 495 nails and so then a lot of people wonder like oh well that's great that means people can build houses cheaper so nail manufacturing will go up and I'm like huh nail manufacturing AKA chip development is going to go up because we need fewer of them man this just sounds Topsy Turvy and then I realize no the only way nail manufacturing is going to go up if all of a sudden there's a step up in the Innovation that makes me want now five times as many houses in other words more artificial intelligence so this is where we have to ask ourselves is artificial intelligence going to create somehow more demand because all of a sudden it's better or it's more Innovative or it could do more for less if we could increase the demand side then then yes we'll manufacture more Nails we'll manufacture more chips but if the demand stays the same so just keep that very clear if demand stays constant and cost goes down and we don't need more demand because we're not demand constrain there is no price elasticity then then what ends up happening is the people like on musk who were buying the chips they just save money like Donald Trump himself said they save money so less people are buying the chips fewer people are buying the chips because they don't need as many of the chips now this is all incredibly important because again your industry leaders aren't calling deep seek a scam or a sop in fact even Nvidia is applauding deep seek coming out with a statement saying hey this is exactly what our chips are designed to do they're designed to bring efficiencies into artificial intelligence so the world can benefit hey they're taking the high road in the day that their stock was down 16.9% so no doubt here that deep seek is real it's an open- Source model Elon Musk isn't calling it a scam Nvidia isn't calling it a scam Sam aldman isn't calling it a scam uh you know Sergey o over at um Microsoft isn't calling it a scap so far everybody's arguing this is impressive now what happens is the next phase which is questionable the next phase is okay who benefits where can we go make money in the stock market as a result of this and that's something that we have to pay attention to because if you look at it at least over this last seven days take a peek what we have here in Google search Trends you've actually got deep sea outperforming chat GPT you could really see that moment right here where deep SE comes out and and takes over GPT in just really the last day now we'll watch this but let's understand some of the arguments that go into what's next for deep seek oh and also quick note some people were asking me about micro strategy and SD STK that's the preferred offering for certain people uh mostly institutions and some retail I guess that they favor or whatever that's not out yet that's expected to price at the end of the month anyway all right so let's talk about the first big popular argument so the one of the popular arguments right now is chips are used for inference not training and so all people on the internet today are freaking out because uh you know deep seek makes it cheaper to train but wait a minute you know we need chips for training so don't worry if it's cheaper to train we'll have more models demand will go up and then we'll end up using more chips because we want more inference but this runs into a really big problem there's the problem of locality and this is actually where as I mentioned on Friday as I mentioned on Saturday and as I mentioned in yesterday's Alpha report and the me Kevin report apple is a style of a winner here now this is where things get really fascinating look at this chart this chart shows you what it takes to run different distillations of R1 on a local computer now what's very important to know is that the full-sized model is 671 billion parameters but one of deep seeks Innovations is that you don't actually have to run the full model for inference in fact you only need to be capable of running the 32 billion parameter model and when you run a query this is the innovation of R1 it selects which 32 billion parameter segment of the model to use so that way you're not using the entire model you're just using a portion of the model and it's the portion that you need now I can run a 32 billion perimeter model with four Nvidia 490s I literally have those in this house people are daisy chaining four or five uh Mac minis together to run the 32 billion parameter model so the point here is that deep seek actually has a huge innovation in oh my gosh we don't need to run the whole model we could just parse out the section we need which means compute required to run these models is substantially lower than we've ever thought before now we're not yet where I could run the 32 billion parameter model on my phone but I could run the 8 billion parameter model on my Mac I could daisy chain a couple computers together and I could run the 14 billion parameter model and if and and I could run a lighter version on my phone soon enough though we will probably have powerful enough phones and we already have powerful enough computers to run substantial versions of these but soon enough my take is our phones will be powerful enough to locally run our own private version of R1 and that I think is where people are missing the boat people make the argument in popular you know popularism right now that the populist argument is oh demand for NVIDIA chips is going to go up because more people are going to end up using AI I well first of all nothing has changed on the demand curve okay the innovation has not changed and and I think that's what like drives me nuts and I was talking about this yesterday with course members is I was with course members yesterday I drew this like crappy drawing out I'm like look AI used to be called neural Nets in 2018 then in 20123 we had the chat GPT moment and all of a sudden you know we got oh my gosh 3.5 and then we got four uh you know 40 and this was great this was a good Leap Forward in sort of chat Bots which basically I call Universal def def like I drew a Define button here because I'm like chat Bots are going to be as ubiquitous and as much of a commodity as a dictionary like do you really care if you're using Mariam Webster or dictionary.com 99.9% of people with the exception of garans do not care what dictionary like it's it doesn't just give me a dictionary I just need to define a word okay that's basically chat Bots and the innovation has essentially plateaued even the CEO of Microsoft has said innovation plateaued he said it as recently as December which is crazy because I I I don't think that folks are paying attention to this who say oh demand is going to substantially Skyrocket uh not only as the CEO of Microsoft said it but I take took a a screenshot of this here uh Ilia over from open AI in November said that pre-training has plateaued because there's only one internet to train and the largest llms already have been trained on most of it now of course we could use like Andre Andrew um Andre kathri says we could use artificial intelligence to create our own synthetic data and then try to train off of that but I don't know that we're there yet uh that might be the next Innovation which could be in 6 months 6 years or 30 years but right now what's happening is we had our GPT moment we've spent a lot of money on chips and marketing deep seek has come along to basically make this spending look foolish and we still have not had Innovation that's actually increased demand that's the problem that's the big thing that I think a lot of people are missing in addition to that fact that we could probably start thinking about running these models locally if we needed to so if we're a small business we can now compete a small business can very cheaply pick up Mac minis or 490s or the soon to be 90s and run your model locally I actually think it's a great business idea you could set up a Consulting shop and uh and Market hey here's your R1 local server for 15K you put the parts together for 10 you take a 5k profit preloading it all making it easy for people you go sell it and Market it done now people have local R1 and they don't have uh privacy concerns by sending all their data up to China or whatever model takes uh these benefits of of scaling or of how we're using portions of the AI to be more efficient now this in part is probably why apple is winning see apple has pricing power because they have the ecosystem you know they didn't blow money on the llms no instead what they did is they said hey we're just going to keep trying to have and obviously they're always behind but we're going to try to have the best product that eventually we could just run llms on directly now the current AI they have absolutely sucks there are memes going around that Apple's AI is so bad that their stock goes up when AI stocks tank yes this is this is true right now it definitely still sucks there's no doubt about that but remember investing is all about thinking about the future and the future seems to be that running AI locally as a commodity kind of like you run a dictionary on your phone or your iPad or your laptop is probably the direction we're going and that is not a benefit like Nvidia is not a beneficiary of that as much as I think people think I think it's more the local companies the the companies that can sell you a computer basically they're potentially beneficiaries now you have to be careful with this because Apple sales like iPhone sales in China are in a slow cycle you're almost in a recessionary cycle when it comes to PCS and smartphones because sales are actually declining so you kind of have to be careful like oh my gosh okay I'll go all in on Apple unless you see this as temporary and buy the dip opportunity the the thing is it's not just Apple though it's zomi it's Huawei there are a lot of competitors Samsung and they could all be a part of that local device provider so keep that in mind now again uh people argue that demand is going to go up this is this is the popular argument I gave that nail example because we don't really know if demand is going to go up and even The Economist reiterated this they said that deep seeks Innovations suggest that The Upfront cost of training a model may plunge and now we're deploying more computing power at the inference stage when the model responds to questions the models are able to now think or Reason to give us better answers okay first of all this whole reasoning thing is just utter BS it's not reasoning what it's doing is it's prompting for you so you throw your question in and then it breaks apart your question into little prompts and it basically prompts itself it's like an auto prompter remember in 2023 when everybody's like oh my gosh you're going to have to become an a prompt expert and prompt engineering is going to be the biggest career in the world or whatever I'm like that's bull crap like you should not have to be a prompt engineer and then sure enough the reasoning models come out and they do the prompting for you that's basically it's not truly reasoning it's like faux reasoning but anyway The Economist goes on to say the the opposing forces of Cheaper training but potentially priced your inference have unclear impacts on what's going to happen with compute demand we don't know if more demand for inference if we even have more demand for inference is going to lead to more chip spending if we could be so much more efficient on the training side but remember the economist doesn't mention this R1 is so Innovative because it's a cheaper to train but it's also cheaper to infer from because again you're only using a portion of the model you're not running the whole model again people are missing this so my take uh is that we've got to be very careful jumping to conclusions and there's certainly going to be a lot more time that goes into this but there are other popular Arguments for example the next popular argument is all of this is just an overreaction we still need chips and yes like Bernstein wrote a big letter they're like yes deep seek is great we looked at the open source it's great it's 20 to 40 times cheaper in other words they admit that deep seek is cheaper and then they argue but we're still going to need chips so please don't sell Nvidia stock okay maybe that's true maybe Nvidia will be fine but one downside that I think people are forgetting is that with the a without or I should say with the absence of a new innovation or a new Step Up in AI technology what actually ends up happening is you end up trending down your Nvidia sales now I'm not talking about a big plummet this is something that takes time I think that if you were expecting to have 30% EPS growth at Nvidia over the next 5 years you might actually see that slowly get written down by analysts and then in reality remember Nvidia sales were you know beat estimates by two % uh last quarter you might actually see Nvidia start missing first they miss by 2% then they miss by 10% or then they guide lower and all of a sudden EPS isn't growing at an average of 30% it's growing at an average of 15% then 10% then 5% and then oh interesting it's starting to shrink it's not I I don't believe that overnight people are going to go cancel all the Nvidia orders but I do think that this is a major Catalyst that says we need fewer server racks we need less energy we need fewer chips and I think this is where if you look at some of the other stocks that got hit it's super micro computers got hit well of course because if we don't need as big a servers and we don't need even more servers on top of what we already have then of course super micro is going to get hit of course Dell's going to get hit of course arm Oracle and Nvidia are going to get hit because they're all beneficiaries of this infrastructure spending continuing Sean energy crashed like 20% other energy and uranium companies VST ceg gev Olo they all dumped like 20% yesterday due to the energy selloff because markets are like okay I guess we just don't need that much energy because if it's local then you're running it anyway probably don't need that much energy because you're able to run it locally and you don't need the high performance computer the h100 but honestly even if you did and went to Blackwell remember Blackwell is 25% more oh wait I'm sorry it's it uses 25% of the energy so it's four times more efficient than the h100 so again you have this Duality where the chips are using less energy but now we potentially use less energy to train but also less energy to compute or to infer what the user wants why well because you're only using a part of the model that's the Innovation now of course this is exactly why people are saying okay well you know uh then then sell All Tech sell all the chips I don't know that you need to do that you know I I never encourage sort of panicking uh but it makes sense why potentially the big growth estimates for some of the chip plays could be over another thing that to me kind of sends the signal that you know deep seek is uh is a big deal is yesterday DEC got hit by a Cyber attack which has a lot of people wondering ah did they get hit with a Cyber attack because they're so good that somebody's trying to take him down I kind of think so now where else are people going well Kathy Wood is buying into Salesforce uh via arcg she actually dumped Tesla to buy uh and Palante actually to buy Salesforce others are suggesting Adobe or docu sign basically the software layer could be a beneficiary uh I'm still not convinced that the software products are that good that uh we want them in Mass I mean paler is pretty good but a lot of the small business and medium business related uh software problems or uh products they run into the problem of scale so they're really good at individual tasks but when you try to deploy them across an entire organization they're still running into scaling issues so it's going to be something that we have to look for companies to actually solve uh I think paler has an edge there with the government but the problem with paler is people realize that finally uh I mean I've been saying for two years that Tesla and paler are like the real AI that exists out there uh and markets have finally adopted that thesis which is great the stocks performed very very well the downside is now the valuations are very very very high now uh the market ear they says we're they say that overall we're in deep doodoo that we're basically looking at 60% of the snps 29% return over the last 3 years coming from the mag 7 and if it is true Kevin that Nvidia earnings are going to go down because we don't need as many nails so to speak then remember Nvidia alone out of those mag 7 was responsible for 25% of the return of the mag 7 and this is where those bubble analogies come from when very few concentrated stocks pump up the indices what happens when those earnings start faltering Goldman Sachs talks about uh individuals going into profit taking modes but potential opportunities existing in Chinese stocks since there're a lot with a lot of good models moonshot AI 10cent bite Dance by Mini Max Alibaba many companies working Chinese AI now I always question investing in China mostly because I don't have the insight into China that I feel like I do in America but it's an interesting point of view and a lot of people see uh some potential in finding Chinese Investments uh to make I personally think we'll catch up in America and start using segmented llms the way R1 does for inference and also more efficient training now uh the market year also argues oh and Goldman says don't rush to buy the dip both of them said that Goldman argues that right now commodity and trading Association stock Traders are quote Max long and there's basically no risk premium that you're earning if you're investing in stocks right now so they really question if investors start becoming curious about artificial intelligence capex and then leaders like Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg or Serge Bren over at Microsoft they start pulling back spend and we're going to have less uh we're going to have a smaller set of earnings from the chip related companies so be careful about that uh Goldman says could it lead to more spending in the long term maybe but it could also lead to a big correction first and when that sort of bleeds out over time it doesn't have to be day after day red you just kind of have to wait to get the new estimates the analyst updates and everything like if Nvidia puts out a press release and says hey by the way half of our orders just got cancelled markets are going to react very quickly but it's not going to happen today it's going to take weeks to get this sort of information uh so uh then we have uh information uh we we talked about Apple already briefly I just want to mention that uh The Economist points out as well that volumes and semiconductors outside of AI PCS and smartphones still suffering so just also keep that in mind if you're investing in some of those aspects the PCS and smartphone sectors they're just not doing great right now they still in a bit of a recessionary environment uh UBS argues that uh ultimately we could see innovations that end up driving more demand for chips but again I like to argue well show me the Innovation because so far I've been looking at AI Bots for the last couple years and I feel like after 40 we didn't get that far ahead but then again maybe you have a different opinion I mean yeah look we're able to like search the internet now originally we weren't able to do that we had dat information but that was sort of an obvious step forward now uh Standard Charter comes out with uh sort of moving on if you will from uh deep seek for a moment although what is also kind of remarkable is deep seek did end up coming out uh with a uh Vision deployment model to uh compete with uh Sora and uh mid journey and some of the other uh image generators and people are like how do they possibly keep coming out with more products when they're already dominating like this of course that is leading to some meme circuit ating like a picture of Sam Alman on the phone going launch the porn Sora anything to basically get it up I mean get demand up but anyway let's move on a little bit from this let's talk about the fomc so we've got the fomc meeting tomorrow uh there's a small indic well a standard Charter argues that any indication that we potentially get a interest rate hike would end up being very bad uh they argue that any kind of firming in the labor market could end end up reiterating the potential for hikes and equities would sell off under any indication of interest rate hikes especially after this sort of deep- seek moment any kind of optimism on disinflation though would be very very helpful to to markets so prepare for the FED tomorrow and this is sort of a little warning on the FED I guess uh personally I don't think there's much of a risk that Drome pow's going to talk about hikes especially after the Deep seek moment I think it's much more likely that they're going to actually applaud the disinflation that comes from a deep seek moment because that's like what Trump says hey you can all save billions of dollars now after all the anthropic CEO says it cost about a billion dollars to train a model these days if deep seek did it for 5.6 that's great it's like pure deflation this is actually wonderful for Jerome Powell come on baby turn the money printer back on we need it then you got Donald Trump he announced four new executive orders an Iron Dome to protect America trans genderism out of the military stopped the indoctrination of our uh troops with critical race Theory and offered full reinstatement for those expelled due to co uh you know refusing to get a covid vaccine and people would be reinstated with their former Rank and full pay he also somewhat suggested by referring to 1887 that we used to have so much money from collecting it from tariffs that we were able to get by without an income tax some people then sort of took that and said oh my gosh he wants to get rid of the income tax he suggested that in the past but I think we got a long way to go let's see how we do with some tariffs first bassent was approved and some people think that he's actually in favor of some form of universal tariffs and some say we could see tariffs as soon as this weekend on Mexico Canada maybe even China you also by the way have Donald Trump suggesting placing tariffs on chip manufacturers outside of the US this would actually include Taiwan and he argues if you don't want tariffs build your plants in the United States Morgan Stanley had a bit of a piece on Optimus and they're actually this is Adam Jonas who used to be a Tesla bull he actually doesn't include Optimus robots in his 2040 valuation model because he says the Battery Technology just isn't there that current humanoids really only run on about 50 minutes maybe up to 2 hours of battery time and unless you want them in a factory plugged in all the time you're not really getting functional humanoid robot uh and uh therefore it's going to be a while before we actually get these functional now uh a lot of people think uh and listen to rumors that Elon Musk wants to manufacture as many as 600 Optimus robots by the end of the year uh per week it could be possible and in line with his goal to have a lot of Optimus robots working in uh Tesla factories and that might be the perfect place for them because they could stay plugged in but in terms of a mass Market it does raise the question question of when are we going to be willing to have a robot that has to charge itself every hour hey if it could charge itself maybe it's not that bad just go sit on that chair over there there's a there's a pointy thing just sit on that pointy thing there you'll be fine other people uh pay a little bit of attention to Tesla now suing the European Union about tariffs uh Tesla uh does get tariffed a little bit less than some of the other Chinese makers in the European Union and Tesla counts for 28 % of all Chinese made uh EV Imports into the European Union but I don't know that this lawsuit is really going to go anywhere in my opinion this is messaging I don't actually think I'm not very optimistic that they're going to succeed in this since it is their right to implement tariffs and Tesla has lower tariffs than the others but Tesla's still trying it's probably a messaging thing uh to sort of uh you know be Pro Tesla and uh and anti- the EU which seems to be a pop po argument by mus these days uh anyway the new model y does have about 3 to 7% more range uh front camera for better parking and some better Lighting on the exterior some cool light bars we are looking at a potential consensus decline in margins for Tesla earnings coming up looking for about 15% on uh gross margins in Q4 that would be down from about 15.6% in Q3 excluding those FSD deferred revenues which those did bump their margins up but you kind of have to parse that out which doesn't happen on earnings day you have to do that a couple days later when they actually release uh their 10K or their 10 Q anyway big things we're going to be looking for are going to be progress on Robo taxi development Optimus progress battery progress especially in the face of this uh and uh we'll keep an eye on uh what ends up happening we'll be covering earnings of course the vake kind of hinted now more officially on Jesse wat show that uh he left Doge on good terms he's going to divide and conquer because he wants to run for elected office uh then we've got to hit the dad joke of the day so Dad joke of the day I'll start with the the the joke portion I'm going to hit the Daily Wealth and then we'll do the punch line so get ready for it I think my wife's been putting glue all over my firearms keep that in mind let me quickly hit the Daily Wealth Daily Wealth for today is that there's a story of a teacher locally here in Ventura California who used to ask his students every day uh sorry not every day every year when they went to graduate essentially to the next uh uh grade this was about 10th grade so the students were 15 16 years old hey what do you want to be when you grow up as as you're leaving and graduating from this and he used to get answers like doctor astronaut firefighter teacher fireman uh software engineer mechanical engineer pilot whatever used to get these sort of careers that were respectable and uh and and people look forward to recently he said uh you know this this has been for for decades he's been getting answers like that so nothing nothing new and surprising more recently however he's been getting answers from younger Generations like I want to be a billionaire and it's over and over and over again and some people are looking at that and wondering is social media making us more relative than ever before where we're constantly comparing ourselves to others to where we're basically never satisfied with what we have kind of sad and it's an interesting comparison and it really should take give us an opportunity to look at what we have and say we are we actually grateful for what we have are we grateful for the position that we're in and what are we doing to improve our position because we're always thinking about Improvement uh but have we gotten to the point of never being satisfied and are we therefore making ourselves miserable interesting so now for the dad joke uh I think my wife's been putting glue all over my firearms she denies it but I'm sticking to my guns
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