저자: GarethSoloway · 외국인
요약 보기
테크 메가캡 대폭락(시총 1.1조달러 증발, 나스닥 -2.6%)과 S&P 약세를 전하며, SMH·엔비디아·마이크론 등 반도체 차트 붕괴를 강조. 내일 TSMC 실적이 반도체·AI주 향방의 핵심 변수라고 봄. 원유는 레인지 내 반등, 금·비트코인은 버티는 중이며 천연가스는 청산성 투매 후 단기 저점 신호로 해석. 항공주(유나이티드)는 실적 부진으로 하락.
다듬은 글
welcome to trading the close everybody you can see I already have the market data up here because we've got a lot to discuss but holy cow what a selloff in the tech sector today the mega caps dropping $1.1 trillion in market cap that's just the mega caps so that is a massive drop today we have stocks like Nvidia apple and many many others including meta just getting pummeled so take a look at that heat map today look at this area here these are the Magnificent Seven if you will that's where majority of the red is if you go over here in the heat map it's actually not so bad there's a fair amount of green in that area but again anything that's a large C that's been running to new all-time highs today we are seeing it absolutely crushed Nvidia down 6% Microsoft 1.5 Apple down 2.5% now if we turn our attention to the markets here Dow is still eeking out a gain so again what the Dow is telling us is that the components of the Dow are more on the industrial side right you got Home Depot in there you've got other plays besides a few Tech names that are keeping that and seeing money flow so money flow is coming from this group and it's being distributed into some of these names that are also in that Dow Jones Industrial Average for instance Exxon Mobile oil's having a very good day today you're seeing a lot of money flow heading into the names like Exxon Mobile which is helping the Dow lift off and again up 235 points however look at that guys the NASDAQ is almost down 500 points on the day 2.6% that is a big drop we haven't seen a drop of that magnitude in quite some time S&P 500 down a little bit less down 74 points or 1.3% and oil here the Stellar performer today bouncing after a few down days up 2.65% gold is down a little bit and Bitcoin is down a little bit as well notice how Bitcoin and gold are down a little bit but to be honest they're holding up especially bitcoin's holding up relatively well after such a big move to the upside it's not getting pounded down even though some of the big names in Tech are taking a tumble all right so that's our heat map that's our little market wrap there I do want to get into some other charts here so if we look at the spiders or the S&P on an intraday basis we can see that today was a day where the market sold off and we never really got a bounce right if you look at this this is the S&P intraday 10-minute chart so each of these candles is 10 minutes throughout the whole entire day here's where we closed yesterday here's where we opened and we can see very clearly like I mean basically it was just sideways to lower the entire day there was no big buy the dip rally today that really pushed us back to the upside throughout the day sure you had little bounces along the way but all in all the S&P again generally trended to the downside now the big names we're going to go over some of these guys because they were tremendous here if we look at something like the SMH I mean incredible drop basically trading at the lows of the day right now look at this daily candle so now we're on the daily chart this is the daily candle I want to show you this remember yesterday in trading the close and in past game plans I've talked about this signal which was the most bearish signal I've ever seen in the markets um literally I've never seen that before engulfing reversal candle with a secondary engulfing reversal candle two in a row with a double top M top and look at the result I literally told you guys the likelihood the probability was something like this was going to happen and it sure did okay so we have that dropping and again that's names like Nvidia getting punished to the downside which now has broken down remember in yesterday's trading the close by the way I showed you Delan micron's chart which had broken major technical supports but Nvidia hadn't yet well now we see the result eventually even the king gets drawn down with everyone else that is breaking down now Nvidia did hit some support today so this is going to be interesting and I have to say this so Taiwan semi is the big one this is going to be even bigger than I thought it's going to be so this morning we had asml which is getting by the way I got to show you this chart because this is an incredible chart look at the drop on asml today there was actually believe it or not at this Gap Phil we played it twice in the Apex live day trading room for two profits but look it by the end of the day it's even lower here as the markets are closing in 30 seconds and that is down on the day 12.5% this is a 400 plus billion dollar company massive company getting Hammer today on the back of their earnings now the reason why Taiwan semi is so important tomorrow is because after this report and the blood bath in the semiconductor index and it we could show you some other semis here AMD for instance look at AMD getting absolutely crushed here uh right into a little technical support in all fairness but nonetheless absolutely crushed this is now where Taiwan semi reporting overnight tonight we'll have it for tomorrow morning this is huge because if they don't come out with a great number whoa this the the the chip stocks the AI stocks could absolutely get demolished tomorrow again after this disappointing report from asml so that's where we are hugely pivotal can Taiwan semi deliver in their earnings report obviously we'll know by tomorrow morning where things sit but again incredible drop on that chart here if we go to a few of these other names you can see Micron broke down we had that key trend line yesterday I'll show it to you guys again right here so key trend line break point right there on the chart broke yesterday and now look at today's big drop and you're at this point this is a big move off of the recent highs this was 160 bucks about out and now you're at 119 that's a big percentage drop in just about 1 month's time and by the way look at the pattern formation it led you to understand this was the likely scenario big engulfing reversal candle we know about those right I go over those very often but then look at how we had the down move and the bare flag what is a bare flag telling us it tells us price is probability-wise going to go lower and that's exactly what it did right there okay so that's an interesting one to just go over here I did point out yesterday in trading the close as well that we had a potential breakout on the vix something was coming remember I said that something's coming when you're winding up you have this wedge pattern right down here I talked about how again Downs sloping this is this is like that that kind of that tightening spring tightening tightening tightening something's going to happen and then all of a sudden there you go right on that chart so again the chart's coming through again for us as investors and Traders and that is the key so again the story of the day big Tech down day Mega cap got crushed some areas of the market did okay uh we did see again oil stocks doing well and some of the other industrial names as well but for the most part the markets are the Magnificent 7even so if if those stocks are getting hit you know that the markets are going to get hit today as well and they were okay couple other things to go over then we'll look at some earnings here's your chart of Bitcoin today Bitcoin uh right into the 618 Fibonacci right here you can see a little bit of a pause but like I I said at the beginning of the show to be honest it's not a bad performance for as bad as the mag 7 did today this is not a bad result it's holding up relatively well we'll watch and see how it plays out but ultimately again any sort of pullback down to this 62,000 level is now key support so let's watch and see if it comes back there does it hold and does it get a bid gold today same thing this morning I talked about how it was into this kind of minor UPS sloping resistance line you take this exact High connect it to this High connect right up here and it goes right into that point and pulled back either way it's a breakout on gold it's a confirmed breakout at this point actually no technically that's not confirmed so you didn't have confirmation today so it's an unconfirmed breakout which means that it's a little bit weaker than a confirmed breakout but it can still confirm tomorrow if we get another leg up silver same sort of deal we talked about it this morning in the game plan it's lagging it continues to lag you can see a a much bigger down day on silver silver versus gold Gold's already broken above its recent highs Silver's consolidating here again the concept there is just the industrial side of silver it doesn't quite have the same feel as gold in terms of the store of safety and the protection that gold gives versus silver although again silver does have some of that that power as well uh oil today big bounce but still within our range we know that again this continues to be the big area right up here lots of trend line action came down to this support and again we got a nice little bounce there I still think overall oil is going to turn lower and break substantially lower next chart we have to look at is natural gas what a flush today I was contemplating if it would go down here and actually hit this line down here it absolutely did and it even pierced it we did get into a secondary level of support so I had been a a buyer right up here on on natural gas and what I did today is I added right down here as well as I continue to accumulate but that was a big drop in natural gas when I was watching it on an intraday basis and this is what we do is Traders I'm literally watching the chart on a 10-minute basis inaday sometimes even on a one minute chart candle um you saw Panic selling my guess is there's some fund that was long up here and is getting essentially liquidated down here because when you see this type of action after a big move down with heavy heavy volume that's usually what's going on some fund made a bad bet they they probably were long Knack gas in this range they might have gotten overleveraged and then sure enough as it goes down it then causes them to essentially get liquidated which is just force selling so essentially when when one of these funds gets liquidated all gets dumped on the market which causes these big moves down the positive is often times it marks a short-term low once that liquidation is complete all right couple other things that we want to go over we do have earnings this afternoon uh U I believe is reporting let's take a look here in the after hours and see ah yes U is down on earnings not a huge huge move from $47 close to 45 so that's a little less than 5% but again United Airlines here is down remember I think we just heard from Delta about a week ago and Delta was warning that their their uh prices were down they weren't getting as much money and so forth and we also saw Spirit Airlines today come out and warn so this is going right along with it I would assume they're saying something that's not quite that great which is why the stock is trading down on a technical analysis basis is there a tradable level here the answer is not at this point it's not a big enough move for a technician we want really big moves where things get really extended if it continues down maybe and I'll watch it after hours and update you guys tomorrow in the game plan at 9:00 a.m.
another stock reporting after hours is Alcoa Alcoa doesn't look like it's doing much here in the after hours so it doesn't look like anything's out this is the one candle in the after hours here's where we closed so it's basically flat earnings may not be out just yet one more stock that I want to keep an eye on is DF discover Financial this is Discover credit card right and the reason why we want to pay attention is because this one can be directly related to um consumers how are consumers doing right now the stock is down a little bit I don't know if earnings are out cuz it's not a big move and it's not very volatile at this point but nonetheless keep an eye on DFS in the after hours so lots to discuss guys I mean this is now getting into that Wilder period the vix is starting to pop it's not telling us there's a lot of year yet but it is creeping up we have to keep an eye on Taiwan semi tomorrow morning that's going to be the big one and then after the Bell tomorrow you have Netflix and I'll be covering it right here as the earnings come out in trading the close and again it promises to be pivotal especially depending on what Taiwan semi does that Netflix number could be even more important for investors and Traders all right guys thank you for tuning in I will talk to you tomorrow morning in the game plan at 9:00 a.m. again have a great rest of your day I'll see you then a
Comments 0