저자: GarethSoloway · 외국인
요약 보기
오일이 쐐기형(wedge) 패턴 안에서 횡보 중이며 다음 주 목요일경 방향성 돌파가 나올 것으로 봄. 이란-미국 협상 재개 결과에 따라 유가 붕괴 또는 급등 가능. 유가와 10년물 금리는 연동되어 움직이며 4.5%가 1차 지지선. S&P500은 반등 중이며 엔비디아 실적 발표를 앞두고 시간외 240~250 구간 숏, 196~197 하단 대응 계획을 제시. 국가부채 증가로 금리는 장기적으로 높게 유지될 것이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. Now, in today's video, we need to dive into what's going on with oil, the 10-year yield, we'll even touch on the S&P 500 and Nvidia as Nvidia gets ready to report their earnings in just a few hours.
We're going to talk about the key levels and the trade opportunities. So, let's start with oil. That's probably the biggest news of the day so far. What we see here is oil is down about 6%. Big drop on oil, but look at how it's behaving inside of this wedge pattern. I just went over this yesterday. Uh overall, we looked at the price action here and how we were looking to see would we break out on oil or would we come back down here, test support, and eventually break down?
Well, we haven't done either at this point. This is the amazing thing about trend lines. Listen, they're not perfect. They again can be broken, but notice high pivot, high pivot, and then you hammered on this for two to three days, and then price got rejected off resistance. Where did it go? It went right down to this trend line, low pivot, to these low pivots right here, right?
And then right down to that low. Now again, what we have to understand is what are wedges. Wedges are connecting two trend lines that converge, basically funneling price between them, and building pressure. And that's the most important thing to know is that ultimately, if you get to the head of a wedge pattern, the question is which way does it break?
You may not know, I may not know, but when it breaks, it's usually explosive. All right, so what does that tell us here? Well, just based on what I just said, we talked about a wedge pattern. So, here's a wedge. You go in this, you go tighter, tighter, tighter, tighter, and you get to that head, and so much pressure has built that it's either going to explode to the upside or the downside.
All right, it's very rare you get a wedge breakout or breakdown where it's like, "Oh, we'll just go down like this." Like that usually doesn't happen or to the upside where it's like, "Okay, we just broke out." You know, it's usually much more explosive. So, what does that tell us? Well, it tells us that as we we could stay in this wedge for 1 2 3 4 5 days, right?
Basically till for another week we could stay in this range, but within a week by next Thursday we should have either broken out or broken down. Now, what's interesting about this is that the news today that was driving oil lower was that negotiations will resume between Iran and the United States in Islamabad, but not until their holy period is over here.
All right, and that's at the end of next Wednesday. So, it's very interesting here how oil again you have negotiations starting up right at the edge of this wedge pattern. Now, listen, we could be above or below by that point, but what it's telling us is that whichever way we break, likely negotiations are either going to go in one direction or the other and the breakout or breakdown should tell us, right?
So, in other words, what I'm saying to you guys and what I will be watching and all we I always tell you what I'm looking at, right? And so, if going into negotiations oil has broken right here, then I would say that's going to signal a positive situation and maybe a resolution, in which case oil would collapse.
All right, on the other side, if we have broken above this level here and we come into next Thursday, Friday, you likely are going to see a massive move to the upside. Do you see what I'm saying here? Is that it's amazing how the charts kind of come into where the market is and they give us signals.
They breadcrumb us, right? In other words, they drop breadcrumbs to tell us what the most likely outcome is. Now again, as we know in technical analysis, it's probability-based. And so there's no perfect solution, meaning that it's not like you know 100% one way or the other, which is why I never bet the farm on one direction or the other.
No matter how convinced I am it's going to happen. Anytime I do that and I go heavy, I usually get smoked. Just the honest truth about it. And so I've learned to say, "Okay, we factor this in. We take it into account. We say, "Okay, this is the most likely outcome." And we And I allocate the proper amount of capital where even if it goes against me and it surprises me, I don't get wrecked essentially.
All right? So again, we'll watch it. Now listen, price could stay within that range, right? We could stay in here all the way till next Thursday, but price by next Thursday into Friday is going to have to break one way or the other, right? That's where those wedge Those two trend lines, right? They are converging.
Basically, it would be next Friday. They would converge. Okay? So these are the things I'm watching on oil, but I do think it's interesting how you could see we were right here and then all of a sudden, boom, it goes right to the low end. And then maybe by tomorrow we're back to the high end or maybe we're hovering inside of here.
One way or the other, price is going to tell us and they'll give us our best chance at understanding what the likely bigger move, the explosive move is going to be on oil. All right. So let's go to the S&P 500 here. S&P 500 is bouncing today. Again, this is because oil is down in addition if we look at the 10-year yield, the 10-year yield is also having a beautiful pullback.
And notice again how yields and oil are trading together. And they're basically interconnected at this point. Why? They're interconnected because yields or interest rates are going up if oil goes up because it's raising expectations for inflation. And remember, when inflation goes up, what does interest rates have to do whether the Fed is raising them or not?
Interest rates have to go up. That's just the nature of how mortgages work. If oil's coming down, then interest rates, which have surged recently, can come back in. And so, these are interconnected, and we see oil today dropping 6%, and the 10-year yield actually having a very nice pullback day. Now, listen, we're going to have to watch this and see, right?
Because if oil breaks down, it likely implies 10-year yield will come back in pretty sharply. The first big support, though, is going to be right here at 4.5%. So, again, that's going to be something I'm going to watch really, really closely to see how that trades out. All right? So, again, major support right in here at 4.5%.
Now, listen, if oil goes back to $70 a barrel, I got to assume it's going to come lower than that, but I I I want to be clear on this. I don't foresee yields, with the amount of debt the US has, with all the problems and the deficit spending and all that, it's hard to imagine yields are going to go that much lower than maybe back to 4%.
They're going to stay elevated, and if the debts continue to mount, they're eventually going to go back up. It's just the nature of people. Anyone looking to buy our debt, or any country's debt, if you don't get your spending under wraps, eventually yields are just going to go up, up, up, up, up, because people don't expect you to pay it back.
So, they're going to charge you a higher and higher interest rate to take on that risk, right? There's an equivalent risk. Like, essentially, if someone came to you and said, "Hey, loan me $100," and you were like, "Oh my gosh, the chances of me getting this back are basically, you know, 1% or 5%." You're going to probably say to them, "Hey, you got to pay me back triple," right?
Or something I mean, something. Now, if you think it's a 50/50, you might just charge them, you know, $100, right? So, you either lose your money or you make 100. Like, there's there's always a level, and that's how interest rates work when it's associated with debt, okay? All right. So, that's where we are there.
If we go back to the S&P 500, again, S&P is up about 9/10 of a percent, but the big story today after hours, Nvidia will report earnings. If Nvidia surges, which I think is is always a possibility. I mean, let's be honest, Nvidia is going to have a blockbuster quarter. Blockbuster quarter, right? Um so, that's number one.
So, the question is what's their guidance? What's their margins? And that's going to determine based on the recent run we've seen if it goes up or down. I would slightly favor the upside. I would rather it go down. Uh I I do have some shorts on the semiconductors, no doubt about it, but I I have to be honest, the chart looks reasonable at this point.
You can see here, it never got to this high end right here, right? So, you have this beautiful trendline, which is actually parallel to low pivot, low pivot, low pivot. Then we broke, then it respected it on the underbelly. Boom, it hit and got rejected. Then it broke back above and then hit it again.
So, we know this parallel, this trendline is a big one, which implies if Nvidia jumps, it could trade up to this trendline. This would be my level where I would look to short it in the after hours around 240 to 245. Probably around 243 I'd start and then add all the way up to 250 if it pierces. Now, if it falls on earnings, this is your big level right here.
196, 197. Major pivot high, pivot low. That's telling me there. Now, listen, it may not go this low in after hours, but I want to be ready. Remember, the best traders in the world already have a game plan. They go in with a game plan. They say, "Okay, this is where I'm going to short. This is where I'm going to And And both can make sense.
It's just we don't know." And just being honest, I don't know what Nvidia is going to do on earnings, but I have a game plan for it. So, I know my levels ahead of time, so nothing surprises me and I have all all the position sizing in my head where I'll dollar cost average, how I'll maneuver, what's my max loss, all of those type of things are all intertwined.
So, we'll have to see where things go here. Just going back to the S&P before we end the video here. Uh ultimately, what I am keeping an eye on here is essentially a zone here. I want to show you this. This is kind of an interesting little uh zone. Uh let me see if I remember this trendline. I think it was right in this vicinity, right here.
Yeah, right in this vicinity here. And let me put a trendline there here. Boom, boom. There we go. And you can see we did pierce this line briefly. We had one close right above it and then we've come back in, but I'm watching this area. Was this a blow-off top? Are we going to come in? Again, questions will remain, but we can see how this general high pivot was the high in 2024, later in 2024 here, then in 2025 right here, and that again was pierced and we came back in.
Now the question is, do we blow through that and do we continue on our merry way or do we get a pullback? All right. I'm going to get going, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in. I hope you learned something. I hope you understand technicals a little bit more. I hope I was able to show you some cool stuff.
I love you all. Thank you so much for your kind words. I'll see you soon. Take care.
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