저자: GarethSoloway · 외국인
요약 보기
금요일 트럼프의 중국 100% 추가관세 위협 후 양측이 되돌리는 흐름. S&P500은 6700 추세선 회복 전까지 일간 종가 기준 하락 확정 여부를 확인해야 하며 소폭 반등 예상, 확인 전까지 약한 약세 편향. 엔비디아는 웨지 패턴 내 중립이나 주봉 topping tail로 약간의 하락 신호, 주봉 195.60 상회 종가 시 무효. S&P 6700 부근은 2020·2023 추세선이 겹친 저항으로 돌파 확률은 낮다고 봄.
다듬은 글
[. In today's video, we're going to do a market update focusing on the stock market, key stocks within the stock market, taking a look at the technicals. What are they telling us about Monday? Now, before I get into that, we have to understand that there's already been a walk back. So, we know on Friday, uh President Trump basically threatened to put or said he was putting 100% additional tariffs on China.
That was in in response to additional so-called curbs in exports of rare earths. Now, we've seen both parties walk this back. Over the weekend, President Trump said he would still potentially meet with President Xi, and President Xi and China saying that these aren't new export controls. Everything that was agreed to prior about exports would be going through.
So, again, major walk back. The biggest thing here is not the walk back to me. I kind of anticipated that. It's just to show you how weak these political players are, these countries are, that literally a 2% to 3% drawdown in the stock market in one day makes them walk back everything. And again, just think about that.
How small of a drop it took to essentially make sure that they pivoted right back to where they were prior. Now, the stock market could be looking to open higher on Sunday night. We'll watch and see where that goes. But for me, these technicals are what matters. Let's get into the action here. Here's the S&P.
Now, we saw the S&P down 2.71% on Friday. Notice I say potential breakdown. That's very important because most people would say, "Oh, this is a breakdown. It's a no-brainer." But in in essence, I use what I call the confirmation signal. The confirmation signal or a a breakdown confirming cannot happen until the next trading day.
What we need to see is any daily close below Friday's low, which essentially was the close, would confirm it as a breakdown versus a fake down, a fake out essentially. Okay? So, watch for that. Now, what could end up happening? Well, we could end up just bouncing back up if the walk back continues from these parties.
If we do, what are the first things we're going to look at here? We're going to watch this zone right here. Does the stock market recapture this area here around 6,700 on the S&P prior to confirming, or does it go like this and then fall before it gets back above and confirms to the downside? Once it gets back above, if it closes back above before it confirms a breakdown, then the market is safe and you likely anticipate a move up here and potentially even a move higher.
So, again, to be crystal clear, we're watching to see does the S&P confirm the breakdown this coming week? To confirm it, we'd have to close below the lows on Friday before we regain above this 6,700 trend line. Okay? So, that is a big deal here. All right. Now, again, if based on what I'm hearing, my guess is the markets will bounce back a little bit here on Monday.
But again, let's see how big of a bounce back. Do we shoot all the way back to this level? And if we do, do we close above or stay below? If we stay below, the markets remain volatile and risky. In other words, that would show me something if it was if the S&P could not reestablish on a daily close above this candle.
Remember, it's daily, not intraday. Has to be a daily close above this level. If it can't and it stays below, it means the markets are still vulnerable for a potential breakdown, and I would maintain a slight bearish bias here. All right. Let's go to the a big name here. This is 4.5 trillion dollars in market cap.
This is a big trend line to monitor here, folks. If we look at this chart, this is your bull market 2021 high. This was your bear market in 2022, and then the subsequent rip higher. Look at how this high matches perfectly with the trend line with the recent high here. All right. Now, notice the sell-off on Friday on Nvidia took us back to this trend line.
So, it's amazing. I mean, literally, the high on Nvidia right here just over the last day, you know, the last trading day, was exactly at the trend line from the bull market high to the highest point here. Notice no other trend line, no other candles on the chart touch that line like this candle does.
And then look at right there. We hammer on that level, and it causes a sell-off. It's almost as if the chart was telling you it had run out of gas and was going to flush to the downside, and that's exactly what it did. But did we break the trend line on Nvidia? The answer is no. So, technically, as a technician of charts, pure unbiased logic-based, probability-based trader, what are we thinking here?
Well, basically, we're stuck in a wedge pattern. So, you really would have a neutral bias here. You haven't broken down and confirmed. You haven't broken out and confirmed on Nvidia. Now, the only thing that has me slightly bearish that I'm monitoring this week is if we flip over to the weekly chart, what kind of candle formation did this weekly candle form?
And the answer is that is a topping tail candle. All right. Topping tails in technical analysis are bearish reversal signals. And so, essentially, what we say is it's still within its wedge pattern, so it's kind of a neutral rating. But if you had to pick a side, the chart is telling you there's a slight negative signal at the high of Nvidia here on the weekly.
Now, how does the weekly negate it, right? So, we talk about, okay, weekly chart says a topping tail. Okay, that's a bearish signal. The daily continues to be in that wedge pattern, which is neutral until it breaks, but maybe a slight edging towards negative. But that how would that negate itself? Meaning that when would the when essentially would you fail the weekly topping tail?
So, when would the bearish signal fail? And to know that, it's very simple. You have to have a weekly close above that high. All right. So, if we zoom in on this, and we could see again, it was right around 195.60. Any weekly, notice I'm saying weekly, not daily. A daily close because the topping tail was formed, and this is really important, folks.
For those of you out there trying to get a leg up on and beating the institutions even at trading technically, if a topping tail happens on the daily chart, it must fail on the daily chart. If it happens on the weekly chart, it can only fail with a weekly close above that topping tail. Monthly, same thing.
Same thing with intraday 10 minute. If you're using 10 minute, the 15 minute, a topping tail on those time frames would fail based on that close above, but specifically on that time frame. That's a really good pointer here. So, weekly candle no close basically above 195.60, and that topping bearish signal on Nvidia would fail.
But isn't it a remarkable to look at the daily chart? Again, to think that just connecting this high to this high, and it gave us literally that high, and then the sell-off on Friday, what did it do? It took us right down to this trend line here, which again is is remarkable. All right. So, that's what we have at this point.
Nvidia, the biggest market cap company in the S in the Nasdaq and S&P, basically in the world at 4.5 trillion, was 4.6 plus just a day ago at the highs on a Friday morning, but fell to about 4.5 trillion. Um and then the S&P 500, this again, and for those of you that are new, this trend line that forms this resistance area goes back to October of 2023 on the daily chart.
This low here connected to the August low, connected to the 2025 low, and then it became, right? Once it broke through, remember, once support breaks, it becomes resistance, which is what happened here. All right. Support, support, support, breaks, confirms, now resistance and resistance, and break to the downside.
The only last thing I want to show you here is again, this level up here of resistance. I've been so firm on believing in it only because the technicals tell me that. Not only this trend line, but let's not forget there's an amazing parallel here going back to the COVID low. Here's your COVID collapse in March of 2020.
We take that low, we stretch it through these lows here. Notice here what's going on, guys? I'm literally connecting through the low here of the bear market. So, from COVID lows to the bear market of 2022 to the low here in October 2023, which is the start of the new trend line, to the liberation sell-off, tariff sell-off in April of 2025.
Bring it a parallel, perfect parallel up, and what do we get? We get a trend line right there as well. And so, this to me is a brick wall, and I want to stress it doesn't mean that the S&P can't break through that. What it means is based on pure probability, the odds of a essentially, think about a a brick reinforced wall.
Like one trend line, okay, it's a brick wall. It's still pretty hard to get through. You throw two factors that go back one to 2023, one to 2020 there at the same level, it's like a reinforced concrete structure, like a nuclear fallout shelter. I mean, it's massive. And so again, it basically just says it doesn't say 100% the markets can't break.
It says that probability-wise, there's a very high chance that it rejects, the market gets rejected there, which is what we saw. So, the technicals proving themselves again. Um but basically, even even high probability, let's say even at 80%. That's a very good odds, those great odds, But it still leaves a small percentage of 20% that at some point it could break through that.
So we always have to remember this. Technical analysis is probability-based analysis. And essentially we put our factors together to get our highest probability and then I trade off of that or at least I try and trade off of that. I shut out emotion, shut out personal feelings on anything, focus on logic, on chart analysis, on probabilities.
You guys have a great one. Thanks so much guys. You guys are rockstars. Appreciate all your kind words. Seriously. It drives me even on these weekends to come out and do a video for you guys where it's if I'm thinking it, I'm trying to get you guys to know what I'm thinking. Have a great one. Talk to you soon. Take care.
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