저자: GarethSoloway · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500·나스닥·반도체(SMH) 등 기술적 신호가 조정 시작을 가리키며, 고위험주(OKLO, HOOD, RGTI)의 급락이 먼저 시작되어 이후 대형주로 확산될 것으로 봄. S&P500 5~10% 조정을 예상. 금·은·비트코인은 이미 하락했다고 진단. 내부자 매도 급증과 개인투자자 매수 열기를 천장 신호로 제시.
다듬은 글
[. Now, in today's video, I'm going to show you why I think the stock market has begun its correction. It should be between 5 and 10% over the next couple weeks to month or so, and we're going to look at the key charts that are telling me it is already in play. It is already starting. Let's take a look at the S&P 500 here.
We take a look, we can see again, we broke below this trend line, and then basically we've hammered on the underbelly of it since. But look at yesterday's close. They tried to get us above, closed below, and then today's sell-off on the S&P. Now, it's only a half percent down move on the S&P at this point in time, but this is what we call an inside bar pattern.
Anytime you have a massive red or green candle and price stays within it, it takes on the characteristics of that color candle. So, in this candle in this case, it's a red candle or a bearish candle, and this is a bearish inside bar pattern formation. The fact that it's not able to get back above this level is a concern to us as institutional traders and investors.
All right, so that's number one. If we flip over to the QQQ, the Qs again, same sort of deal, long-term trendline right here. We broke below all inside bars, unable to re-achieve a break above this zone. That is a concern as well. Continuing on, and I'm going to throw this fast and furiously at you.
This is the SMH, the semiconductor ETF. I talked about this over the last couple days. Trendline going back to the COVID lows. Notice how we hopped along it until the bear market of 2022. And then look, we hit it, and look at the size of the pullback on the semis. Look at what we just did. We hit it, pulled back, hit it right here, and we're now pulling back.
This, according to what I'm seeing, we should at least get this type of drawdown. If we look at this on a percentage basis, this was a drawdown of around 30% on the SMH, the semiconductors. If we map that out, we're looking at a drawdown all the way back to basically right in here. Look at all this sideways chop.
You'd be looking at around $250 on the SMH. Now, look at Nvidia, which is the obviously the biggest market cap company out there. If we flip over to the daily chart, Nvidia looks like if it closes here, it's going to confirm a breakdown. Here's your bigger wedge. The upper trendline goes back to the bull market highs of 2021 through the high here in 2024.
And look at what we just tagged. It fell, bounced, then broke, didn't confirm, didn't confirm, but inside bar action. Today's close, assuming it's below 179.75, confirms a breakdown. Notice a theme here, folks. A theme of breakdowns, of potential confirmations of a breakdown, and that again is key. But there's more.
Wait, there's more, folks. Check this out. So, in the scheme of the market, what have we seen? We've seen the assets Bitcoin has already broken down. All right, Bitcoin has broken down from 126,000, trading basically at 108,000 last I checked. Huge drawdown. Gold and silver, two other assets that were making new all-time highs.
Those have broken down. What's left to break down? The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and that is kind of the last bastion of support here, but it is starting to crack. Now again, we could say, "Okay, well, the S&P hasn't confirmed, the Nasdaq hasn't confirmed, so we don't have a confirmed market breakdown." But if you look under the covers, let's pick up the covers and look underneath, we are seeing major corrections beginning in the highest risk stocks.
What do I mean by that, folks? Take a look at Acalo today, OKLO. Look at this daily chart. Massive sell-off on Acalo. And look at this, folks. I think we can all agree this is a massive correction. And again, the reason I'm pointing to these stocks is as a technician, look at this, almost a 40% drawdown in one week.
Now, there is a lot of support in here, in all fairness. But again, my point is a 40% drawdown on OKLO, which is a nuclear play, again, one of the hottest stocks in the market, it is cratering. Robinhood, one of the favorites out there. Look at the drop today, down 7% on the day. This was predicted by myself here.
We had this beautiful parallel. I said, "Guys, look at this. Reversal engulfing candle, that's a major bearish signal right at the high end of a parallel. You got to bounce back, and then it's come down." Near-term support's going to be around 117 to 118, low end of the parallel, right? So, the parallel, the lower trendline goes back to basically April, the the lows in April from the liberation day and subsequent sell-off on the tariff announcements, right?
And that's where we're headed right here. So, all of these things are starting to snowball. So, notice again, while while Nvidia and some of these others are just borderline confirming, we're seeing names like Robinhood down 20 plus percent off the highs. All right, we're seeing Acalo, OKLO, down 40% off of the highs.
And even other higher risk plays like this. Look at this today, Rigetti Computing. This stock, folks, was a meteoric almost $60, $58. It has corrected 37% already. And so, you guys get my drift here, right? Essentially, what I'm saying is that in the stock market, what are the first things to correct?
The highest risk, the most elevated, extended above their fundamentals. All right, so again, these stocks that have gone up two, three, four, five, six hundred percent in a matter of months, they're going to be the ones that obviously get de-risked first. It then spreads like a wildfire, and it will spread into the S&P, into Nvidia, into all these other names, and draw those down.
But they're going to happen over the next few weeks versus these higher risk plays are happening now. So, in my opinion, folks, it is already in play here. Again, we saw gold, we saw silver drawdown, we saw Bitcoin drawdown. If we look at Bitcoin right now, you can see again, Bitcoin on the daily chart, it tried to recapture this.
It's back down to about 108,000. Gold today, guys, gold is trading near the lows of the day. I have all my supports here. I'll do a video later today on my gold levels, but I predicted the gold drop and the silver drop based on technical analysis and looking back at the 1979 run in these things. So again, here I am just giving you my technical analysis probability-based assessment.
To me, it looks like a correction in the stock market is just beginning. You can see it, the fire starting in the highest beta plays, the highest moves, the OKLOs, the Rigettis, the Robinhoods. It eventually should spread to these other names, and we should see a bigger drop, 5 to 10% correction on the S&P 500.
Okay. So again, as we go through this, we have to always be aware that markets don't go up forever. When greed gets to the point where every 1% dip is being a buy the dip mentality, that's a warning sign. You have to look at the psychology of the market. When I heard, I was told by people that when you go in Australia, there were literally lines around the block to buy bars of gold, and most places were sold out, it's a ding ding ding moment telling you that's a high pivot, that is a corrective move.
Meaning that the old adage when I grew up in trading in on Wall Street was that when the bagel man is giving you stock tips, or the bread maker, or the, you know, anywhere. You know, when those when those individuals are telling you, "Hey, you got to buy this stock. I heard it's going to move." Basically, that's a top signal, okay?
Because remember, it cycles through. The big institutions get in first, then the decent the the solid traders and the hedge funds, then below that, and eventually retail. Once retail is bullish, who else is left to buy? And then the fear starts coming in. Essentially, institutions are now unloading into retail.
And I've been warning that, by the way. Insider selling has been massive for the last few months. Like beyond, I've never seen it so heavy in terms of insider selling. This is CEOs, CFOs, CTOs, COOs, all of these players dumping stock like crazy. And again, what is That's not Think about it. If a CEO is dumping their own stock, they obviously think it's overbought, right?
And so, you have to look at that. And but yet retail and the narrative amongst retail has been like, "Oh no, this is bullish. This is bullish. Just buy the dip, buy the dip." I I've learned the hard way, guys. I'm here to just tell you I've learned the hard way. I always want to pass my hard-learned experiences that cost me a lot of money onto you guys so that hopefully you guys can avoid some of the pitfalls.
You're not going to avoid all of them. We all make mistakes, and I still make mistakes to this day. But the idea is is you learn these lessons, and hopefully we don't make these mistakes, and they're warning, they're breadcrumbs. I've been talking breadcrumbs for the last month in this market saying, "Guys, something's going on here.
Something is coming." We'll see where it goes. Have a great one, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in. Take care.
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