저자: 미부기 · 한국인
요약 보기
TSMC 실적은 매출·순이익·3분기 가이던스가 시장 기대를 상회했으나, 반도체 지수 SOXL 차트상 하락 추세가 우세하다고 판단. 기술적 반등 가능성은 인정하지만 252 부근 저항 예상. 과거 ASML·TSMC 실적 전후 급락 사례를 들며 하락 가능성 제시. 다만 장기 상승 추세 이탈 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 하락 시 분할 매수, 반등 시 단기 매매 및 엔비디아 실적 전 횡보 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is America. I spoke about semiconductors in a video yesterday, but a major breakout occurred immediately afterward. SXX, for example, plummeted 7% in a single day. The Nasdaq fell by nearly 3%. Investment sentiment across the entire semiconductor sector has deteriorated due to ASML's earnings, reports of semiconductor sanctions, and remarks by former President Trump that seemed to take issue with the semiconductor subsidies provided to companies like Taiwan's TSMC.
Technically, the key support level I mentioned was also breached. I am going to share an analogy regarding the response strategy, which you can view as being connected to yesterday's discussion. First, let me talk about today's TSMC earnings announcement. Revenue came in at 6,735 Taiwan dollars, exceeding the estimate of 6,581 Taiwan dollars, and net profit also came in at 2,478 Taiwan dollars, higher than the estimate of 2,350 Taiwan dollars.
As expected, the Q2 results came out well, just as anticipated. The most important Q3 guidance also came out well, with all sectors exceeding market expectations. It also surpassed market expectations with margins and gross profit margins. Furthermore, Capex, an indicator that gauges the level of investment in semiconductors, also They projected a range of $300 million to $32 billion, higher than the estimate of $295.5 billion, citing high demand as the basis.
Regarding earnings announcements, TSMC is rising, and the semiconductor sector is in a phase of recovering some of its losses. However, I place more weight on the possibility of a technical rebound. Since I believe the overall trend has been determined to be downward, I view the likelihood of a meaningful rise in the semiconductor sector as low.
Let me explain while looking at the chart. This is the SXX daily chart. I mentioned yesterday that it diverged from the 252 mark, and the divergence occurred downwards. Trading volume also surged to the level of the long bearish candle on March 8th. This volume is the second highest for SXX in the past year, following March 8th.
It is a level that cannot be ignored, and since it has strongly broken through key lines, I consider the overall trend to be set downwards. Of course, I do not believe it is likely to lead to a prolonged decline. I see little chance of it breaking the long-term trend that has continued since late October of last year.
If it were to break this, it would transition to an inverse leverage, which would require a broad market decline as a prerequisite. Because Even when the Dow and Russell were being pulled back as tech stocks surged during the AI rally, the market did not shift to an inverse relationship with them.
After the long bearish candlestick with heavy trading volume in the semiconductor sector on March 8, the market actually rose for five consecutive days during that period. In other words, overall investor sentiment has not contracted; it is simply a matter of money shifting. Since corrections are inevitable whenever there is a rise, as you know, semiconductor setters play a pivotal role in the AI rally.
Personally, I believe there is a high probability that an upward trend will emerge at least once. It will be important to buy well at the bottom and capitalize on the trend. Although TSMC's earnings were good today, I do not expect them to generate performance strong enough to completely reverse yesterday's decline and rise; I view it merely as a technical rebound.
I believe the $252 level, where yesterday's opening price, the 20-day moving average, and the lower end of the channel that was broken align, is highly likely to act as resistance. Looking at auxiliary indicators, the situation appears open to the downside. If you think about it, there are many similarities to the past ASML and TSM earnings announcements.
If you look at it, the pattern is 2, 3, and 1. At that time, the upward trend continued, but There was a decline, dropping nearly 10% in just three trading days, and about 30% if you consider SXL. This occurred from April 17 to 19. ASML's earnings acted as the trigger during this period as well. On April 17, significantly missing guidance and pre-order sales for exclusive devices negatively impacted sector momentum.
The next day, April 18, TSMC's earnings weren't bad, but there was a further decline. Then, on the following day, April 19, news of Israel's bombing of Iran triggered a panic sell-off. The market was filled with fear at the time. However, I proceeded to buy amidst that fear. While there were various reasons, one was that the overall buying sentiment in the market hadn't died out.
Although buying sentiment for tech stocks was dampened, buying sentiment for the Dow remained alive. The same is true now. The Dow continues to hit new highs this week. Therefore, I view any further decline in the semiconductor sector as a buying opportunity. Ultimately, the correction ended and a trending upward movement emerged, and I believe it is crucial to capitalize on this trend.
The same applies now. I am currently watching the semiconductor market for a while and will enter a clear zone. I am planning to enter the market. I do not think this is a zone for aggressive trading right now. If the market moves downward, I will proceed with buying by catching lows in installments.
Although unlikely, if a rally occurs that immediately breaks through the technical rebound, I intend to focus on short-term trading, anticipating a potential sideways trading range. After all, we cannot rule out the possibility of consolidation until NVIDIA's earnings report next month. Ultimately, responding to the direction is crucial, and if an opportunity arises, we must seize it.
I believe that opportunity comes only to those who are prepared. I think the outcome depends on how you prepare and how you respond. Instead of focusing on the outcome and becoming impatient or anxious, I suggest taking a longer-term view and focusing your strategy accordingly. I will wrap up today's video here.
Thank you sincerely for watching today. If this was helpful, please subscribe and like the video. If you have any questions, please leave a comment, and I will check and reply. Thank you. |
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