저자: 아인 · 한국인
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SOXL 2시간봉 기준 엘리엇 파동상 B파 반등 후 C파 하락(expanded flat) 가능성을 제기. 7월 말까지 조정 가능, 최대 $43~45 하락 리스크 언급. 단기 분할매수 또는 7월 말까지 대기 후 8~9월 매도 전략 제시. 나스닥 선물 파동과 엔비디아 $108 지지 여부가 핵심 변수. 채굴주 선호, 기술주는 연말까지 강세 가능성 언급하나 단기 추가 조정 경고. 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Hello, today I will be conducting an analysis of SOXL. This is the soxl 2-hour chart. Since there is a risk of a C-wave decline after Nvidia's B-wave rebound, SOXL also faces the risk of a C-wave decline following its B-wave rebound. And similar to Nvidia, this correction is expected to remain possible until the end of July.
Therefore, I would like to discuss the possibility of an expanded flat, where the recent upward movement in SOXL forms the B-wave rebound and then strongly declines into the C-wave, currently, from the position of the B-wave rebound, it appears we have seen one corrective rebound, and now we seem to be in the third downward wave.
This part requires a more detailed examination. If the recent upward wave in SOXL was a 1-wave rise in a five-wave structure, the subsequent correction could unfold in the first scenario: a complex wxy corrective pattern with a triangular consolidation. This would involve whipsaw movements up and down within the triangle before eventually breaking out to the upside.
This section, which I previously mentioned, indicates the possibility of concluding the first 2-wave. Therefore, this area, as a common ascending zone, is where at least an abc corrective wave is expected to emerge. I had mentioned this as the buying entry point near the bottom of the triangular consolidation zone.
Since the subsequent upward movement formed a five-wave structure 1 2 3 4 5 after the whipsaw movement, you can proceed to sell the buying position entered at this area. After selling, it is important to observe the shape of the retracement. If this retracement marks the end of the red 2-wave, it should reverse into a 3-wave rise within the corrective range of the 2-wave, following the initial 1-wave ascent.
In that case, a key reference point will emerge from the initial rebound at this position. Additionally, whether SOXL and NASDAQ patterns will change in the future depends on the overall NASDAQ wave counting, specifically, it hinges on whether the previous NASDAQ wave consists of all five waves or if the recent high corresponds to the value of the 3-wave.
Therefore, the current shape can be viewed as having achieved the 1-wave at the previous high. Looking at the 1-hour chart, if SOXL finishes the correction at this point and was attempting to rise in a 1 2 3 pattern following the 2-wave retracement of the previous 1-wave ascent, then during the movement from 2 to 3, 1 2 3 4 5 abc, it should have made an immediate breakout.
Therefore, SOXL has confirmed additional correction wave declines from the point where the low of the bullish candlestick was broken. In practice, this situation can be monitored and responded to by observing the NASDAQ futures chart. Those who did not take any action would likely have experienced a significant loss this time.
However, as I mentioned, since there is a possibility of of an expanded flat for both Nvidia and SOXL, you can consider buying, but you should hold off on substantial positions until the end of July. I advised to approach with a larger time frame since there could be a correction ranging from $45 to $43.
Focus initially on mining stocks rather than tech stocks, aiming to capitalize on short-term price surges for potential profits. I have been providing explanations along these lines through the membership videos. An expanded flat is a pattern where the first correction consists of three waves of a rebound, with the B-wave also forming three waves, From B to C, the pattern completes with a total of five waves, resulting in a five-wave decline.
Currently, on the 1-hour chart, if SOXL's first correction includes a single rebound, up to the 1 2 level, then the current segment is forming a 1 2 3 4 5 pattern. 0:05:02.820,0:05:08.820 This indicates a 1 2 3 technical rebound with a 4-wave correction, followed by a further decline in the 5-wave. Overall, this suggests a potential downward movement in a five-wave structure through the end of July.
This represents the maximum risk for correction, and it is important to note that I am not asserting that the price will definitely reach that level. At the current position, the approach most investors can take is first, to wait until the end of July. The second approach is to start responding with a staggered buying strategy from the current level.
After the expanded flat pattern, I expect that a three-wave rise, similar to the 1-wave ascent, will unfold over the next two months. The key factor is whether Nvidia's trend declines to $108 or rebounds from the current level. This will be crucial in determining SOXL's future rise and corrections. Above all, I believe that Nvidia's chart movements have the most significant impact on the flow of the tech sector ETF, SOXL.
This is the Nasdaq futures 4-hour chart. Accordingly, if the pattern has progressed as one, two, three, four, and five, then the NASDAQ futures, which have also shown a short-term rebound, might similarly follow a one, two, three, four, five pattern. Again, if the pattern is progressing as one, two, then 1 2 3 4 5 it's also possible to continue to 4 5.
Those who understand this can engage in short-term trades at each stage. However, if this is not clear, the most balanced approach would be to hold off on actions until next week for more clarity. As mentioned in the previous video, the key factor is whether Nvidia's price rebound continues from the current level.
If it does, SOXL may not necessarily follow an expanded flat pattern that declines to $43-$45, instead, it could form an irregular flat with a 3 3 3 abc zigzag correction or even an ambiguous running flat or a slight touch on the a-wave position followed by a reversal. Therefore, it's important to consider both the primary and secondary scenarios to address this uncertainty.
Alternatively, you can take a position within a reasonable range now and, even if the price declines, wait for a potential rebound and subsequent rise. This approach would involve selling at high points around mid-August and the end of August after the end of July. In the past, I mentioned price benchmarks for SOXL and TQQQ, emphasizing that these levels must be maintained.
If I provided such expressions, then the current level is one where it's not necessary to set a stop-loss. Given the significant decline, this is a potential buying opportunity. Ideally, the best scenario would be to confirm the formation of a total of five waves. There is a risk of correction extending until the end of July.
Even if the first rebound occurs, there is a possibility of a 4-wave rebound. Therefore, I recommend taking quick profits on the initial rebound. However, if the three-wave rebound leads to an impulse wave that completes the entire correction wave, then you can use the rebound after the 2-wave rule point as a selling criterion, with the third rise being a key inflection point for your sell strategy.
So, if you have a basic understanding of Elliott Wave theory, you should be able to grasp the explanations related to the current situation. For those who do not fully understand the content of my videos, a common approach would be to accumulate positions continuously until the end of July and then consider selling around the end of August or September.
This strategy is straightforward and widely applicable. If you understand the content of today’s video, you can use the analysis of NASDAQ futures charts to monitor movements on different time frames. By adjusting your buying and selling proportions accordingly, you can prepare for potential further declines and implement this trading strategy.
We are still in a period where a rise in mining stocks is expected. While tech stocks are likely to see strong gains through the end of the year, there is a risk of short-term additional corrections. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, such correction levels also present ample buying opportunities.
The key point is whether the correction will conclude from today or if there will be an additional wave of correction extending into next week. However, ultimately, I anticipate that the overall correction wave will conclude from a medium-wave perspective, leading to a stronger upward movement that will continue through September and October.
I hope that investors can take advantage of this period of volatility as an opportunity. There is no need to feel fear doubt, or anxiety about the market decline. Currently, I am continuously uploading analyses of mining stocks, individual stock briefings, and various analyses of TQQQ and SOXL through the membership videos.
For you to fully understand this market in detail, it's important to invest time and effort into studying it. However, if you prefer not to spend that time, you can opt for a more straightforward trading approach. However, I also spend a significant amount of time each day creating thumbnails and conveying specialized knowledge to help a broad audience understand these concepts.
What I know and what I convey through videos are two different things entirely. In reality, the number of people who like the videos is often lower than the number of my membership subscribers. That’s why I focus on uploading videos primarily for the membership. Those who have been following my membership videos would likely have avoided experiencing all the losses directly.
I expect that the overall direction for the NASDAQ will become clearer either this evening or tomorrow. We will refine those details based on the shapes of the upcoming candles. I hope that investors can seize this market situation as a valuable buying opportunity. I will conclude today's video. Thank you.
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