원문 보기
people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them that's bad number one but worse number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist you're not go out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble yeah we began with Peter Lynch Time Magazine has called him America's number one money manager during the 13 years he headed the Fidelity mellan Fund it was a top rank General Equity mutual fund his new book beating the street offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits and he's here to talk to us about a lot of things to Welcome to the broadcast you wrote a book called one up on Wall Street and I think that's one of the best selling books ever about Wall Street if I'm not correct you can correct me and so so why then did you write another book okay okay I think the reason I wrote it it was the fir I try to explain to people their great advantages their edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks right and they should do it on the right basis this was on the first book right yeah and obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets invol in stocks has gone down in 1960 people play 40% of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds in 80 that was down to 25% it's now down to 177% and why do you think that is well I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their methods were so flawed so I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things if you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank your philosophy is is simple and I'm remembering this from the previous book I think we're now talking about the previous book corre your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with I remember that was a story of your wife in her hose your wife kept saying legs and pant your wife said these are the greatest things I've ever seen and when your wife said that you knew that this was a product that was better you used to stay at La quenta Motel service was better whatever was better and the price was good too and you said this is a place that I can determine I Peter Lynch can tell that this is a good product right if these people making a good product then their earnings are going to go up therefore the stocks going to go up and that's a kind of decision-making process you ought to go through right do I have it you've got it exactly right well I I don't think people understand there's 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened to the price of oil whe who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go up yeah but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention they imp on they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve he cannot predict interest rates he'd be the first to he can influence him but he can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to predict interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 yes 1982 we did 20% prime rate 14% unemployment 12% inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things here's a quote from you I own Dunkin Donuts when you own Dunkin Donuts you don't have to worry about Korean imports you don't have to worry about M2 or M3 these are money supply figures aren't they and and what's happening to the money supply this is the way you make money if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it if you could predict the stock market you could predict the economy you could predict interest rates if you go buy the wrong stocks you're going to lose half your money any right I'm saying people have natural advantages let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry right you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants you saw McDonald's you saw Chi-Chi you saw chilies you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin' Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these stories these were 40 40 fold you made 40 or 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times your life right no that's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with an industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks you need a lifetime instead people they're in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks the people in the chemical IND the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them so that's that's bad number one but worst number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist you're not go out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble yeah
Comments 0