저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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주가 수익률은 장기 평균 10%이나 실제로는 8~12% 사이에 거의 없고 과잉(excess)과 조정(correction)이 반복된다. 경기·시장 사이클은 사람의 심리(낙관·공포)에 의해 생기며, 강세장은 과도한 낙관, 낮은 위험 회피, 과잉 자본 유동성의 세 요소로 특징지어진다. 주가가 내재가치보다 높게 책정될 때를 경계해야 하며, 낙관이 얼마나 가격에 반영됐는지가 가장 중요하다.
다듬은 글
the SNP average of stocks uh returns about 50% uh 10% a year on average and it has done so now for about 90 years almost 10% a year why doesn't it just give 10% every year and in fact if you look at the history rarely is the return between 8 and 12 it's usually much better than 12 or much worse than eight so Y is the average not the norm and uh this is a very important question to understand because of in order to deal with cycles and the answer is simple that the positive Trends in the economy or the market eventually go to excess remember the third stage and those excesses correct on their own or are corrected that's the most of what I'm going to talk about for the rest of this section and so rather than thinking of the cycle in terms of ups and downs which I always did and most people do I think it's better to think of excesses and Corrections excesses when things go too strong and Corrections when they go too weak so and why do we have excesses because of the involvement of people this is not mechanics this is not physics this this is an area where people have a very strong impact and Richard Fineman who was a great physicist said physics would be much harder if electrons had feelings we walk in this room we turn on the light switch and the lights go on every time why because the electrons flow from the light switch to the light fixture every time the electrons never say not today I'm tired kind the toy canado they never go in the wrong direction they never go on strike and they always do what they're supposed to do but people rarely in my opinion do uh what they're supposed to do and especially not at the extremes and because economies and markets are made up of people and people have feelings we get Cycles so for example positive feelings can make the directors of a company anticipate big demand and build a factory and hire workers and and and produce for inventory and if they all do it at the same time then we get a period of above average growth from the factory building and the inventory producing and then that we have an what's called an upcycle in the market positive investor psychology causes stock prices to grow faster than the value of companies is growing the value of companies May grow 6 8 10% a year on average but in the 1990s for example stocks in the US the S&P 500 appreciated 20% a year so the value of companies was growing like this the the price of stocks was growing like this that's dangerous because that creates an excess and then eventually the excesses can be corrected so if every Factory management builds a new Factory and hires workers and produces for inventory in anticipation of strong demand we may get to a point where there are too many factories and too much in inventory and earnings are disappointing and then they close the factories they lay off the workers they sell from inventory rather than produce and we have a period of below average economic growth or maybe negative economic growth which becomes a recession likewise if prices outstrip the value of companies for long enough and become too high they can't stay up they can't go up further they have to flatten out or decline that's a period of Correction so bullish periods are followed by bearish periods so it's the creation of excesses and Corrections and I think it's better to think of cycles that way than ups and downs now the next question that's important is the cycles that I've been talking about are they Dependable or Not Another quote from our friend Mark Twain who said that history does not repeat but it does Rhyme very important this is a theme that runs through my book the details of Cycles are always different from one to the next the The amplitude of the fluctuations the length of the cycle and the speed of the fluctuations always different and also different are the causes of the cycles and the effects of the Cycles the ups and downs and people nowadays say to me well this cycle which cycle from the past is it like and it has some characteristics of others but it's never quite the same history does not repeat but there are certain underlying themes that do repeat or do re do rhyme from one cycle to the other and if we can learn about them and recognize them then we can be ahead of the game so for example in my period in this business I've lived through about a half a dozen uh important bull markets and in general they have certain themes that that do repeat and here they are too much optimism too little risk aversion and too much Capital availability and if you if you look at those and you think about those those three things in themselves are a pretty good recipe for a bull market and it's pretty hard to imagine having a bull market without them so these are the themes that we should associate with a bull market which is to say a period of appreciation to excess now let's talk about the three first of all optimism most people think or many people think that that asset price Rises are produced by good events but the the connection is not just between events and prices it's events and psychology it's events and how they are perceived that produce changes in asset prices and the role of perception or psychology in the setting of asset prices is extremely important all things being equal a high level of optimism will cause things to be priced High relative to their fair value or what we call the intrinsic value so it's the job of the professional in my opinion to figure out out for each stock company or building what is the intrinsic value and I'd like to buy when the price is below the intrinsic value and sell when it's above I think that's a simple recipe for how an investor should behave so we have to figure out the intrinsic value but clearly in a period of great optimism regarding the future prices will tend to be high relative to the intrinsic value we want to know that and the higher the optimism most of the times the higher the price and as I say here if I could know only one thing about every investment that I was considering it might be how much optimism is priced into the shares
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