저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 부채·통화 사이클, 내부 갈등, 강대국 충돌, 자연재해, 기술 변화 등 5대 힘이 역사적으로 반복된다고 주장한다. 현재 상황은 1930~45년 시기와 유사하며, 트럼프 행정부의 보호무역·관세 정책과 과도한 부채·통화 발행이 인플레이션 압력을 키운다고 본다. 이에 따라 금과 비트코인이 상승하는 흐름을 설명했고, 금을 비트코인보다 선호하지만 포트폴리오의 일부로 둘 것을 권고했다. 구체적인 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
right now we're seeing a lot of central banks acquire gold that's not the same as crypto because crypto is different that way because still who controls it is it controlled behind the scenes or do you have possession of it for those reasons I prefer gold to crypto just to give you a little bit of background about the five forces I've been a global macro investor for about 50 years and some of the times that I've been surprised I was surprised because things happened that didn't happen in my lifetime but happened before so I found that by studying history before it helped me for example I studied the 1930s and the Great Depression and that allowed me to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis and do well when others had some trouble so I saw recently three big forces that led me to the five big forces that I saw repeat over and over again in a cyclical kind of way okay what are those five big forces the first force is the credit debt money economy force in other words you give credit you're giving buying power but buying power that that credit produces debt debt means you have to pay it back then it becomes a cycle and it becomes what the economic and market Cycles are driven by that's one force second force is the force of internal order and disorder particularly internal conflict particularly when there are large wealth and values differences that there become irreconcilable differences in which there's populism of the right and populism of the left another extremism of the right and left and they are irreconcilable forces that produce a conflict internally that's basically a type of War of one side to win over the other the third force is the great power conflict of one country competing with another country classically the rise of a great power to challenging an existing great power and when you challenge existing great power you would challenge that power's rules and that means you challenge the order and so we seeing that now as the China and other countries are particularly rising to become competitive and then what is the dominant power the United States is no longer the single dominant power and then I discovered fourth acts of nature droughts floods and pandemics have killed more people than Wars and top of more Waters so number four certainly and certainly now climate change the cost of climate change the impacts are very large and then through all history the biggest Force most powerful force in creating the evolution is man's learning particularly of Technologies the invention of new technologies and ways of operating and certainly that's the case now with AI and other technology developments that are going to change how we're operating so I watched these five forces move in Cycles in great Cycles what's happening now is very similar to the 1930 to 45 period and that's the nature of the dynamic so anything that we're going to want to talk about or anything that's important will fall under at least one of those categories and so I think when we're sitting here today and we're thinking about the future we have to think about those things again I'll start with the Dynamics and then we'll deal with how to tackle them one man's Debs are another man's ass assets and when debts rise quickly that means you have to sell that debt so that somebody has to buy that debt and when they want to buy that debt they are buying it based on the return that they're going to get and when there's a lot of debt relative to GDP it's a difficult Balancing Act for central banks because you have to be careful to keep interest rates high enough that they're good for the Creditor without being them so high that they're bad for the debtor and that Balancing Act becomes Progressive ively difficult and what they do when they reach an imbalance is they print money and so we've seen the creating of large debt and the printing of a lot of money causing an inflationary pressure and that's the way the machine works okay so now neither of the parties are really thinking about that balance and how to deal with that there's a different philosophy the Trump Administration is more going to follow a policy very similar to the policy that existed in the right of Center governments in the 30s they're going to become protectionist they're going to raise tariffs a lot and that tariff will be taxes essentially it'll give income so there's an element of income that's going to come from that and then that protectionism is to try to build up the American industry not just for an economic reason but because there's a sense of self-sufficiency is needed in case we get into a war and you're going to see that in chips you're going to see that in electricity we need power you're going to see a plan an industrial plan not capitalism as we ordinarily think of it we think of capitalism as a free market and so if you want to buy something luxurious and you want to no no this is much more top down and directed and then there'll be more in military spending and the like and so we're going to deal with this imbalance and that part of that is also the changing of the world order where no longer the United States is taking care of the world order as it designed it but it is instead taking care of itself America First in a world order in which then there's that conflict so that's the nature of that Beast for that reason I think that there's a supply demand imbalance issue that not only will come from the new Supply but also the lack of Desire of holding bonds because there's a lot of debt which is held and when you start to think is that a good currency is that a good storeold of wealth increasingly there's the risk that that will be sold and that's one of the reasons that you're seeing gold and you're seeing Bitcoin go up because we're talking about what is an alternative money a money is both a medium of exchange but a stor hold of wealth and so now you're seeing more movement in that direction because it's precarious I don't think the FED handled it in the right way there were two big stimulations the amount of checks that went out to people from the federal government again remember federal government can't print money but they can distribute money so what they do is they borrow money so the FED lent money to the central government that send out checks and they sent out more than twice as much money as the negative impact from the covid was in other words incomes were set back but they sent out twice in two big waves and of course if you send out more money with buying power then you create more prices going up you create the inflation that we've experienced and so I think people are paying attention not just to the word inflation which is the rate of change but looking at prices and so if you look at the prices of everything almost every place depending where they are they're up significantly prices of most everything and that's a political issue so yes I believe that they were for two reasons they were too stimulative they were stimulative the first go around because of Co and maybe they would say I didn't want to be stingy I want to make sure we had more than enough there was the second time around when the Democrats and Biden got elected and they're talking about the redistribution of wealth Universal basic income that was past the first go around and there was another big wave of money and that combination of that big wave and the printing of money produced the price changes we're seeing my view on cryptos remain pretty much the same and articulated and I own crypto I own some Bitcoin the question is the amount and how attractive it is relative to Gold okay I think that there's kind of the old man's gold and the younger man's crypto but the important thing first of all is to represent whether one or the other and really ideally some of both should be in the portfolio don't be so fanatical that you're just having one and not the other and do worry about the value of money and what is your alternative money that can't be printed okay so now when I look at crypto and it's evolved over time there have been a few things first of all there's not the Privacy element of the crypto everybody can understand EX exactly what it is you can tax it easily so governments can easily tax it it doesn't have the same element of that privacy there's a saying that gold is the only asset that you can own that's not somebody else's liability meaning you have to depend on somebody else you can own it and so on gold is also has always been a reserve currency in all times it's the third largest reserve currency in other words the largest is the dollar second is the Euro third is gold and fourth is the yet and it's always the currency that's being gone to right now we're seeing a lot of central banks acquire gold that's not the same as crypto because crypto is different that way because still who controls it is it controlled behind the scenes or do you have possession of it and so for those reasons I prefer gold to crypto but I think the important thing is the recognition of the issue of do you trust the governments and I think that trust the governments that they won't print the money to make The Debt Service easier is not the best move you know sort of anti- debt assets like bonds and so on and I prefer the other but I would say that should just be a portion of the portfolio I don't want to get carried away with that
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