저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 국가부채 이자 부담이 2030년 전후 연 1조 달러를 넘고, 금리 상승과 부채 증가가 맞물려 지속 불가능하다고 주장. 정치권은 위기 전에는 행동하지 않으며, 외국인 수요 감소 → 연준 QE → 인플레이션 → 통화위기 순으로 전개될 것이라 봄. 부채한도는 계속 상향될 것이며 디폴트는 결국 불가피하고, 고인플레이션은 사실상의 디폴트(채권 실질가치 하락)라고 설명.
다듬은 글
there are a number of different uh organizations and economists out there saying that they believe that the US uh will be paying more than a trillion dollars annually in interest payments uh for the national debt by 2030 2033 whatever not by 2030 maybe even by the end of this year but certainly by next year the the interest T you know assuming just a Fed 5% rate right fed funds rate which we're going to be at you know in March or you know that fed's going to hike rates and other 50 base points or so that's what it says um we should be at a trillion in interest by the end of the year if not next year but we're not going to stop there I mean then we'll be 2 trillion and and what happens when the national debt is 50 trillion and interest rates are 10% well that's that's five trillion a year in interest on the national debt I mean so I mean it's the numbers are enormous because the debt is going to keep going up and interest rates are going to have to keep going up because the more debt we have the more inflation we're going to create and the more inflation we create the higher interest rates have to be this is an unsustainable even uh pal admitted that what we're doing is unsustainable it is unsustainable when is it going to end only when there's a crisis and a crisis is coming uh because the politicians will not act in advance of a crisis to avert one they will wait until there is a crisis and then they will try to react to the crisis after it happens and so there will be a debt crisis the only question is when and I I think it will be a currency crisis as well as a debt crisis because the response to a debt crisis is to print more money and that creates the currency crisis describe a little bit more in detail how you expect that crisis to play out both the debt and the currency crisis like what would your expectation be with either the sequence of events or the things people should pay attention to as buyers for us treasuries or dollar denominated debt in general disappear nobody wants to loan money anymore because the interest rate is not even close close to compensating you for what you're losing especially when the dollar really starts to fall you know then you know your foreigners are not going to want to loan US money uh if the dollar is going down against their you know their base currency so uh you're going to start to see a loss of of of buyers and then the FED is going to step in with an even bigger quantitative easing program to pick up the slack to buy the bonds that nobody else wants well where does the FED get the money to buy those bonds it has to create it and that means it expands the money supply so it creates even more inflation which will push the dollar even lower and that will force you know even more people to want to get rid of us bonds assuming there are still some private buyers around you know now you're going to chase them out and now the FED is going to have to expand its QE program even more because if the FED doesn't step into the market interest rates really go up you know look what happened in 1980 with vulker they went up to 20% they could go higher than that now I we have a lot more debt now than we had back then uh so in theory we you know rates should go higher now than they were back in 1980 but of course since we have so much more debt than we had back then the economy would completely implode it would be just a meltdown so they're not going to let that happen but the only way they can prevent that from happening is by creating more inflation and that's really what leads to the currency crisis because the markets figure this out finally nobody wants our dollar you know I think it'll start abroad where foreigners don't want our dollars but then Americans won't want the dollars either because they won't be able to buy very much with them so I mean the whole world will be trying to get rid of them do you think the United States debt limit gets increased could the US default and how does the debt limit play into monetary policy and the FED decision-making it will be increased unfortunately because it's always increased but every time we get close to having to increase it the Republicans make it big deal about it so long as there's a Democrat president because when when Trump was president or when Bush was president they they didn't care they raised the debt ceiling but once you have a democrat in the white house then all of a sudden you get a few Republicans who say oh wait we don't want to raise the debt ceiling well we want to cut spending well why don't you cut spending when you got the White House you know because they don't actually want to cut spending they just want to talk about it and and so you're going to get some Republicans talking about how we have to get a handle on the debt but at the end of the day we never get a handle on of debt and we're going to increase debt ceiling now we would all be better off if we never increase the debt ceiling had they never raised it the very first time and we've had it for like a 100 years but we'd be better off if the initial debt ceiling was still in place so we didn't have all this debt the reason we have so much debt is because they keep raising the ceiling and it's nonsense to say we have to raise the ceiling to pay our bills if we wanted to pay our bills we wouldn't have to raise the ceiling we would just pay our bills the reason we to raise the debt ceiling is so we can continue to not pay our bills so we can go into debt instead of paying our bills but the problem is paying the bills actually cost money nobody wants to pay the bills the politicians want to keep on kicking the can down the road so they want to raise the debt ceiling again so that we can continue to not pay our bills and have the debt national debt go up to 35 trillion 40 trillion 50 trillion you know infinity and beyond but the problem is going to come when we reach a ceiling that we can't raise and that is the lending ceiling that is the willingness of the rest of the world to loan US money you know because when that when we hit that ceiling then then we're done but and the crazy part about it is we tell our creditors if we can't borrow more money we will default well we're basically telling the creditors that this is a Ponzi scheme because we're only going to pay back our current Bond holders if we find somebody dumb enough to buy new bonds and then we could take that money and use it to pay off the guys who own our bonds now I mean but why would you deliberately loan money to a government if they're telling you right off the bat if we can't borrow more money we're just going to default and you're never going to get your money back you know the the politicians should be saying if we don't raise a debt ceiling we are going to cut Social Security we're going to cut Medicare and we're going to prioritize interest on the national debt or we're going to have an emergency tax hike we're going to raise everybody's taxes so we can pay the debt no they don't say that they say if we can't borrow more money we're defaulting so I mean so how much longer can this go on because default is inevitable it's only a question of when now of course the other thing that they could do if they're not going to default well they just print well then there's hyperinflation and that's the same thing it's actually worse than defaulting could we see a world over the next 10 or 20 years in the United States where inflation is 10 or higher uh on an annual basis I think so although I don't think our creditors will put up with 10% inflation uh that many years in a row especially when the interest rates are well below that and they're really getting killed but you know inflation is a form of default if the Central Bank prints a bunch of money and you have 10% inflation and we have a 30 trillion national debt we've just repudiated 3 trillion of the 30 I mean it is a slow default that's what it is it's just a different way of defaulting you do it through inflation instead of just reducing what you pay but it's the the impact is the same for the bond holders either you get all your money back but you can't buy as much or you get less money back but you can actually buy the same let's say there's 10% inflation if I got 90 cents on the dollar well that the same as getting 100 cents on the dollar with 10% inflation or I can get 90 cents on the dollar with no inflation but you know prices are going to go up a lot more than 10% I mean you they could double they could triple they could quadruple and that is a huge haircut you know the bond holders end up losing 70 80% or more of the value of what they loaned
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