“A Major Theat To The Economy Has Just Surfaced” | Ray Dalio

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정부 부채 증가와 대규모 통화 발행, 자산 버블 등 금융 요인이 국채·은행·연기금 등 전 세계 레버리지 부문에 부담을 주고 있다고 주장. 여기에 내부 양극화(부의 격차에 따른 포퓰리즘)와 중국 등 신흥 강대국과의 외부 갈등을 더해 역사적 대순환(약 75년 주기)의 후반부에 와 있다고 봄. 국채 수익률이 인플레이션을 따라잡지 못하면 보유할 이유가 없다는 점을 강조하고, 현금·단기채만으로 안전하다는 통념에 의문을 제기함. 다만 구체적인 자산별 가격 방향 예측은 명시하지 않음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. because a lot of people think if I put my money into a treasury bill I get safety look at whether that's giving you a return that's compensating for inflation and maybe we're all wrong maybe there's nothing to worry about so how do I deal with that I look at three major forces that are happening now haven't happened in our lifetimes but have happened many times in history and those three major forces are the creation of a lot of debt and the printing of lot of money to buy that debt particularly because the government is running large deficits they don't have enough money so that government has to print that money so that creation of all of that debt and its financial implications and its economic implications is one force the second force is the internal conflict the amount of conflict that's largely due to the largest wealth gaps that we've had since the 30s that produces populism of the left and the right particularly when there are financial difficulties the third force is the rising power challenging the existing power largely in the form of China and to some extent Russia let's call it the great power conflict because in 1945 you know there's a cycle you have a war then after a war you have winners and the winners determine the rules of the game and then there's this evolution of others becoming more competitive and then you have a conflict again for who's in control so we have that Dynamic taking place so those three influences the financial the internal conflict external conflict influences I learned before that when I was surprised often it was because of things that hadn't happened in my lifetime before but happened in history because of that reason I went back and studied history the last 500 years on these Cycles there are big cycles that last about 75 years give or take about 50 years years of Rises and declines I think it's so important people understand I also learned in studying history that there were two other influences that were very big and you could see them the first was Acts of nature such as droughts floods and pandemics the changes over time in the evolution over time of people's learning and the Technologies they make so I'd say there are really five big influences that drive everything and since they each affect each other it produces what I call the big cycle so as we go now into this it's important one man's debts are another man's assets so what happened government had to sell a lot of debt when it sold a lot of debt there were a lot of entities that bought a lot of government bonds and money was very easy which meant that short-term interest rates were very low and money was almost it was actually being given away because they had interest only loans and interest rates were less than 1% and you didn't have to pay back principal so you can go get money and so that created a lot of debt and it created buying of government bonds what happened to many many entities all around the world not just Banks they what does a bank do a bank takes in deposits typically or debt in some way and then it buys debt it can do that in the form of making a loan or it could do that in the form of buying a Government Bond buying debt and then when interest rates went up the value of that debt went down money they had to give to depositors became more and more expensive and also depositors wanting them to be competitive looked at money market rates or other rates and withdrew money from the bank because they had better uses okay so what that leave them with it's a banking problem that has happened literally for thousands of years what they do is the the depositors you know want their money back and they're holding assets that in this case have gone down in value so they're broke what happens for the economy as a whole is then they print the money because they don't want defaults there's a tolerable amount of defaults and then you get past a tolerable amount of defaults and it just crushes everything and so they print the money it's not a banking issue it is a global issue all around the world Pension funds insurance companies the world is leverage la la meaning they own stuff and they borrowed money to own it and it's going down in value the big issue is the government can come in and print the money and give money to anybody they want to give money to but when they do that that typically devalues the money think about it if you're holding a bond you know you got a claim on money but the claims are too much one way or another you're either not going to get back that money in full or you're going to get back money that's worth less because they print the money but if the money's hard if that's going to be good money that's coming back it's going to be hard for those entities to pay back because it's a lot relative to their income and cash flows to pay it and that means that the default risk Rises however it means that the debt will be bad one way or another it's either bad because they don't pay it it needs a haircut for them to pay it or because they do pay it with money that is going to be printed to come back so think of it this way just want to make this clear when there was the position that interest rates got a lot below the inflation rate you're losing buying power there's no good reason to own that and there's a change in psychology because before there was I own bonds I'm getting a price appreciation even though I'm getting let's say a low interest rate but inflation isn't a problem until it's a problem then when it's a problem because they print so much money and they put it out then inflation goes up and a light bulb goes off people realize it's not safe I'm losing money to inflation and then the other side of it was you want to borrow and buy because money's free so companies borrow and buy stuff and individuals borrow and buy houses interest only loans on the houses I mean like okay I can buy a house I can buy an apartment but that creates the imbalance where it's terrible to be a lender and a creditor and it's good to be a borrower and do that the Federal Reserve says I bet fight inflation they change things and so by raising interest rates you know real interest rates much higher lo and behold the people who did all those things get hurt because yields got so low tech companies and others those who have a dream they don't have to necessarily make profits they're selling a dream and the money's got to be invested you see all of that change radically when that tightening of monetary policy so now you sit there and have AOW what is the value of a financial asset it has no intrinsic value its only value is what it can buy but there are many many more Financial assets out there there's ever been relative to the value of stuff to buy there's too many claims out there it's like musical chairs if everybody says oh wait a second let me get my stuff let me convert my debt assets I want to get real stuff that's a real problem and so that's the global picture on the first of those five influences the fact that it's happening with the other influences is very important cuz they affect each other so this financials picture by the way is the same as in the 1930 to 45 period and the same as they were throughout history for people that don't know that's World War II it started with a financial crisis that then caused internal conflict what do we do about the financial crisis the populism of the left and populism of the right in this internal fighting and four countries that were democracies chose not to be democracies because of the conflicts that were existing and those countries were Germany Italy Spain and Japan because there's a lot of internal conflict over wealth when you have that and so that creates a lot of internal disorder in some ways almost Civil War everywhere some form of Civil War and of course that happens also at the same time as there's the external conflict first of all everybody's fighting over resources you have populists come to power and the populists are not compromisers the way democracies work and you've got to pick a side there's no place for moderates and the sides are let's say internally in the country the left and the right and externally the Americans and the Chinese and you got to pick a side and fight