"ECONOMIC WARFARE DISASTER" Ray Dalio

요약 보기

미국의 대러 제재와 달러 시스템 분열로 달러 신뢰가 흔들리고 있다. 1971년 금태환 중단, 1933년 금본위 이탈 등 역사적 패턴을 근거로 통화가치 하락과 인플레이션 장기화(스태그플레이션 가능성)를 경고한다. 채권·현금은 실질 마이너스 수익, 주식도 채권 대비 매력이 줄어들고 있으며, 통화 다변화(금·크립토·CBDC 등)가 진행될 것으로 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the US is imposing sanctions sanctions are it's an form of economic Warfare and it has a big implication for the dollar okay now others are trying to get out of the dollar system there's a dollar system that now is being changed that India is dealing directly with Russia and holders of dollars and nominated assets don't want to hold those dollar assets if they feel that they're going to be grabbed and so on so what's happening now has happened many times for and I learned this in my past uh because in 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and President Nixon gets on and he says we're not going to give you the gold that the dollar is backed by and we had a devaluation it took me by surprise I walked on the floor of the stock exchange I thought it was going to go down a lot it went up a lot and that's because I never experienced the currency devaluation I found the same exact thing when I studied history same exact announcement took place on March 5th 1933 by Roosevelt and had the same effect so I understood then how history before me was important studying the Great Depression allowed me and Bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if I didn't study that what's happening now is very relevant the past is a guide to what's happening now as we are approaching a challenging of the world order in other words a great power challenging another there is an increased likelihood of some some kind of War there are five kinds of Wars there's a trade War a technology War a geopolitical influence War a capital War which we're in the midst of and then there's a military war and those things Drive countries to be self-sufficient and independent and as a result globalization diminishes and nationalism increases it's not the stock market stock market so it's in the book it uh takes you through the stock markets during war periods and so the only thing that matters for stocks is the cash flows and as you get into the conflict that's a different story if you begin to see as it progresses those that are affected by the individual events have an effect for example tax stocks but anyway in in answer to the question how does it affect the markets it affects the value of money most fundamentally like what we're seeing now is that the value of money when you run very large deficits you have to spend a lot you have to spend a lot on social programs you have to spend a lot on defense you have to spend a lot on environmental programs and so on and so when you spend a lot more money than you earn then you have to print money to make up that difference to make the purchases and then that devalues money and so it's like the examples I gave you of the two currency devaluations that you had before 1971 led to the inflationary period of the 1970s and so you have the stock market yes the stock market goes up and other things but cash is crash and people then begin to learn that the bonds that they're holding have negative returns and it starts to change the value of money the value of dollars and so on so money goes into other assets it produces more of an inflation and you start to enter a certain type of environment and the environment that we're in is beginning to be very much like that of the 1970s there's two ways of dealing with debt you pay it back in hard money or you pay it back in soft money you pay it back in hard money and you have um a problem you have a depression so throughout history whenever that was done pay back in hard money eventually that was abandoned and you print money that was what 71 was that was what March 1933 was and so I think that what you have to think about is the value of money how much money does one have in Deb instruments and do you want to own that as an asset I think they're Bad Assets and then how do you diversify and the system also has to deal with um what is money is the dollar going to remain the same sort of Reserve currency and then you see the development of alternative monies we're seeing a variety I think different types of money will compete with each other in the environment we're in maybe it's crypto maybe it's U maybe it's gold maybe it's um other things U maybe the digital MMB competes with the US dollar we're going to come into an environment think about how much money is being stored in debt instruments those debt assets think about how poor those returns are so that kind of a shift I think is very important all currencies have a lot of debt so when you look at one relative to the other there will be a lot of printing I mean currency equals debt that when you hold a currency you're holding a debt instrument and so all of those will decline in value relative to other things now will the dollar decline more than other currencies it's almost certain that we're going to come into this environment we're in this environment in which there's a shifting of those currencies so you're going to see more of China's Ram andb being used you're seeing India have a direct link with Russia on the currency so we're an important change in the currency but how that is a store of wealth is a different question so a currency is a medium of exchange and a storeold of wealth and its storeold of wealth is now a problem particularly for the dollar but it's also a problem for other countries so that's why you have inflation as money goes into other things and the cost of borrowing is so low relative to the inflation rate then encourages the borrowing of money and the sale of money in other words not holding Financial assets like that so that's yes I think you're changing the nature of what money is and what the dollar is as a storeold of wealth we're beginning a paradigm shift a paradigm shift is a shift from a mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and another positioning of that so for example the mindset that we were in was that you have low inflation and when you're owning bonds and you're owning care cash or you are operating one way and you don't worry about that and companies don't worry about it in their inventories having larger inventories or homeowners don't worry about inflation as much in the purchases of their houses and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing Dynamic it's like everybody is long bonds we've been in a 40-year bull market in bonds and so it's been fine to have and when that shift starts to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce that cycle in the Paradigm so for example when there is the selling of bonds that makes it more inflationary in and of itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but also the amount that debt that's being sold is those bonds so now interest rates have to rise a lot or the Federal Reserve has got to come in there and buy more and then you get wages people make wage settlements and such things so a paradigm shift is beginning to take place and that will be also self-reinforcing and it's taking place in this context of the conflict which then creates the breakdown of um ficient systems each country wants to be self-sufficient it needs to to protect itself and in being self-sufficient in that way then you have less efficiencies in the system and all of that becomes self-reinforcing so it's all happened before it's all happened many many times before yeah I'm concerned about that when you raise the return on bonds and you raise the return on cash and you Titan money then that makes other assets less attractive such as risky assets particularly long duration assets like tech stocks and the like so you produce that squeeze yes but that's still only at 2% or a little bit over 2% with an inflation rate which is considerably higher than that we've had a 7% inflation rate and we'll probably settle it'll be a 5% is or something and so you're still losing that money to inflation people are so what you have is enough tightening by the Federal Reserve to deal with inflation adequately is too much tightening for the markets and the economy so the FED is going to be in a very difficult place a year from now as inflation Still Remains high and it starts to pinch on both the markets and the economy here's the problem if you're Bor borrowing more money than you're lending and you have a lot of debt you either are going to pay back in hard money or in soft money and so it creates a very difficult tradeoff so what can you do do you spend less money so that the tradeoff becomes more and more difficult and that's what brings about a stagflation environment because they Tred to navigate between those two undesirables in other words they want to contain inflation but too high an interest rate that's good enough for inflation causes too much economic environment so what can they do no they're in a position already because of that Dynamic spending more than they're earning creation of a lot more debt and a lot of other debt which one man's debts are another man's assets and that as the holder of that assets is losing money imagine holding a bond now look at how much money is in bond funds and cash okay not only in cash you don't get any return to compensate for the interest rate and in your bond fund you get Negative and how's that feel so are you going to continue to hold those Bonds in that bond fund it's a dynamic that they have to deal with that is really beyond their capacity to deal with it they can't change those fundamentals I think that most likely what we're going to have is a period of stag flation and then you have to understand how to build a portfolio that's balanced for that kind of environment so every investment is an exchange of a lumps sum payment for a future cash flow and and so the cost of money is a consideration relative to the return on money and so when we look at that return when we say I can hold cash or I can hold a bond that changes the inclination to hold cash but also one has to look at the return expected return on equities in other words one calculates the present value of future cash flows you estimate what are those earnings going to be in the future and what are they worth today stocks are now having expected returns which are not very much more than bonds which would be not very much more than cash so as that happens so that why should I own equities far out you know and have the volatility of equities so that shift in the curve in other words the relationship between cash bonds and then the relationship between bonds and equities and the relationship for Cor corporations between the rates at which they borrow at and the rates at which they can earn money at have a pervasive effect on the economy and the markets so no it's important to take a look at that relationship that yield curve structure that way but you should go beyond that and include the returns of other assets what can you do in the way of generating returns relative to the costs of money the relative attractiveness of those instruments you have to have an economy in which the people believe that you have a fair system and you have to have productivity