저자: World Window · 외국인
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you know my Mantra of investing is 15 good uncorrelated return streams risk balanced okay so I want to start there right okay because I know that if I can pick good Investments um and they're uncorrelated investment I won't lower my return because I'll have the average of those returns but I will lower my Risk by up to 80% so my mantra is you know uh what I don't know what the risks are always out there so that's when I when you first asked me a question I think in that way you have to have to uh and risk balance them it's not necessarily dollar balance sure and it's not just these it's this combination this basket the all weather portfolio that you have are well known for so now if I step back from that and I think about okay the world now so that's almost like s and a half percent in things that are uncorrelated there are some general themes okay my general theme would be first of all um that we have a debt issue okay and when I take that that issue most fundamental to of all markets and the underpinning of every Market is the treasury market it affects everything so in answer your question you have to start with the treasury market and there's a supply demand issue there in terms of this and I've seen this before one man's debts are another man's assets when we talk about currency as a stor hold of wealth we're really talking is debt a stor hold of wealth so when I look at that issue I think we have a big issue that's there it's a big risk so if as I as I start to make tactical deviations from well let's say what is a totally R balanced assuming I don't know uh exactly what's going to happen my biggest most important deviation is I don't want to hold much debt as an asset and I think the Japanese example is such a good example it steals money quietly and the way it does that is people make the mistake of paying too much attention to their nominal returns rather than their real returns how inflation eats away at that so and when I look at Japan what they did on average over the last 15 years or so is they have a 3% lower interest rate than we had in the United States and they depreciated the currency by about 4% a year so you're losing 7% a year in the value it's depreciated holders of those bonds because of the monetization and all of that I think that there's a significant risk that that will happen to us so when I think about that balance I think okay uh now I don't want to concentrate any one bet on anything but as I'm thinking about the bet my biggest bet my biggest concern is that concern then when I get to individual stocks or anything what are the risk risk premiums what should I pay to be out of that which is why debt and the treasury yields are important that's where you're basing that that's right and then what is so I think that there's a risk there if if you had normal times and you say well what is the inflation rate and then give me what the bond rate should be I would sort of say inflation currently is in the 2 and a half 3% vicinity you should have a two% real rate so you come out in the fiveish vicinity without the supply demand consideration for those Reasons I'm concerned about rates and I think people also pay a lot of attention to is the Fed easing and they think ah rates will go down because of that I've watched them go in two different directions for good reasons okay so that's a look at the treasury market okay well back to that real quick is that are you watching treasury yields rise because you think this debt deficit situation is becoming way too big of a problem and if any of these policies go through that the Trump Administration is promising we're talking about several more trillion of debt is that yes you have to sell it right someone's got to want it okay the traditional buyers have been burnt in it and own too much in other words be about onethird of all the debt is owned by foreigners and they're owning it and it's big parts of their portfolio they've lost money in it and besides losing money in IT issues like sanctions okay think about the Chinese did the Chinese want the bonds yeah why would they buy our bonds if we're not buying our chips Japanese have had had this problem and so the portfolio is bigger and then we've got not only the supply that is coming a supply demand so do they want to increase their market share I don't think so in terms of the share of their portfolio and then you put on that um that's just the new Supply demand the real issue even beyond that new supply and demand is if people think that that's not a good investment you will sell you will get selling of existing debt and if you sell existing debt and all of that debt you can have a real disaster in the treasury market and so that would force the Central Bank in what does the Central Bank do they buy the debt they print the money and so on and so that scenario exists as a realistic worry so when I look at the markets I I say 15 good uncorrelated but what would I want to have a tactical deviation from I'm not really excited about the debt okay then when I look at equities I think I have to look at the specific equities uh the idea of talking about Equity markets as a whole is an obsolete idea because they're so different and you know we're now in an era of disruption so what disruption means is bad for one good for another and so on and how that's going to change um of course the you know the hyperscalers and so on didn't done well I believe that really it's the most ADV greatest advantages are going to be on those who use it well right and and we're not paying enough attention to that we're thinking okay did they make the chips did they make that okay but the users because they're in a war that's going to be a very expensive War it's a war that's so important to them that they don't there's not a question of whether there return on investment right you have to win you have to win market share Mak or or give or give that up and you see the bifurcation in in the chip socks that are doing well and the ones that are not doing well right and you're seeing that also which is interesting is it's a national survival question so uh what what it means is it's more important than profits it's more important than money okay which will which country the country that has the best technology not only will have the best economics but they're going to have the best military the most so these things are a a war where profits can be a secondary consideration but those that are benefiting from the technology and making transformations like I think in investing like I'm super excited because all of the times that I my investing was I would always write down my principles my decision rules convert them into algorithms and I used expert systems to be able to build systems that would make decisions computerized systems I believe in that now I'm very excited about what AI does in being able to do that so I think that and that's just only one area but it exists in healthcare exists in so many different areas so finding those those that are the beneficiaries versus those that are the uh detractors the ones who are losing but also uh getting away from really the super scalers and focusing on that I think is important I think location is very important when I mean location three basic things when I look at I look at countries I look at companies the same way do you earn more than you spend do you have a good balance sheet you have have more assets than your liabilities so are you Financial good as a country good income statement good balance sheet because you're going to need that internal order is there a internal order that lends itself to productivity and so on rather than fighting including Rich poor fighting does capitalism exist in this environment or is it going to be threatened and number three is are you in risk of an international War it's so much better to be not in the war than to be in the war cuz history has shown you know there there's the uh the war there are the winners there are losers and there are neutral countries the winners lose they get deeper into dad and they have their losses the losers are devastated the neutral countries are the ones who are the real winners so if you can have those financials so that you have that if you can have property rights protections and working well together and you don't have that International War so when I'm looking around the world for my 15 good uncorrelated return streams these are the things that I think about right uh does crypto have a place in any of those today yes well I have a small percentage of my portfolio in crypto uh because what we're really do thinking about is we have to think about what is the alternative money because a money a currency is a medium of exchange there will always be a medium Exchange but it's a stor hold of wealth and so when you're talking about the bonds the debt okay we have to think about an alternative money and when when we look at the United States and we look at other Count's currencies they're all having problems okay so the same problems we're talking about in the United States are the same types of problems Europe has same types of issues that China has am I going to own their debt safely and so on and the same types of problem Japan has so you tend to see them go up and down to together so you have to think about money money is can I move it around it's not like real estate that's knocked down and you know nailed down and then you also have it to taxes so uh you're dealing with gold and then you're dealing with the new version which is crypto okay so you have to think about that I prefer gold okay but that doesn't mean I'm I'm into diversification and so um the reason I pref prefer well the reason I'm concerned about U crypto is first of all privacy the government knows exactly what you've got where it is and it's also an effective way of taxing it because I was with Central Bankers when interest rates hit zero and a bunch of central bankers and were U figuring out uh how negative can you make interest rates the thing that limited the negative amount of interest rates was the paper and and so the question was the answer to the question was we can for a very short period of time have 400 basis points because of the fact that there's not enough uh storage space for all the paper but they'll build storage space for the paper and so that that sounds so 19th century but but okay now if you don't have the paper and you have it digitally you can have as negative it's just the same as taxes right so when I'm looking at that I think okay that is not exempt from crypto okay that's and then the reliability of crypto in terms of let's say saying does it correlate with inflation does it correlate with those things no it doesn't really not well it's still largely a speculative vehicle so for those and and number four is also it's not likely to be a reserve for a currency okay it won't work whereas now as countries need things what is the reserve gold is still uh it's the third largest reserve currency the US dollar the euro gold and then Japanese yet so I prefer gold but anyway whatever vehicle we're talking about I think we're saying uh I'm saying you have to think about debt as being maybe you don't want one man's debts or another man's assets you don't may not want the bonds you do have to think of an alternative currency that's going to also allow your buying power and a currency is something that can go from one country to another it's you know and so there aren't many
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