저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 주식·채권·부동산이 동시에 버블 상태이며 특히 미국 주식시장은 2000년 고점에 필적한다고 주장. 일본 1989년 버블 붕괴 및 2007년 주택버블 사례를 근거로 들며, 금리 하락으로 자산 수익률이 낮아져 장기 부의 축적이 둔화된다고 설명. 원자재(비에너지 지수)는 2011년 고점 부근, 신흥국 주식은 미국 대비 역사적 저평가 구간이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
a powerful lesson about how human behavior works but it also explained to us why the big firms couldn't play that game it is simply not a commercial proposition to get out of a bull market because every now and then they run further and faster than you expected Japan went on and on and on Way Beyond people's expectations 2000 beat the record there's a lot of difference between 35 times earnings and 21 the previous record so sometimes they break out to an astonishing degree we now the bad news is that changes nothing they go back even more and longer and they go back where they came from and the higher they go the harder and longer they fall but it changes everything when you're there when you're having a bubble it's really advisable to have the bubble be in one focused area in 2000 for example it was us growth stocks it was not Global and real estate was really cheap as in cheaper than the cost of building the building you could buy real estate for a b BS were really cheap and inflation protected fonds had just come out and they yielded 4.2% 4.3% I mean can you believe it real return guaranteed against inflation even within the market the value stocks were not too bad and the small stocks were not too bad and small value was actually cheap enough that when the S&P had gone down 50% it hadn't gone down at all it was I think plus three I mean amazing and the REITs all of the real estate they were up 30% as the S&P hit - 50 that was a bubble that was Paradise for an acid allocator because there were so many Alternatives what you want to avoid is what Japan did in ' 89 Japan had the biggest bubble in history I believe bigger than the south sea bubble and that was in Landon real estate and the old Story the land under the empress Palace was worth more than the whole state of California we spent two days actually asking and digging and it was it literally was first of all it's a big palace with great palace grounds and secondly downtown Tokyo all around it was selling for you know four five six times downtown Manhattan and the numbers worked out just amazing simultaneously they had the biggest Equity bubble of any important Market there are some flaky tiny markets that don't count but of any major Market that's the biggest bubble of all time at the time we were told it had gone to 65 times ends there's always historical revisionism in the data so you have to be a little careful but at the time it was clear everybody agreed 65 times earnings which is pretty remarkable and it had never sold at over 25 times before so that's the thing that makes every value manager wake up sweating in the middle of the night is Japanese stocks anyway they managed to do both of these at the same time and 31 years later the land is not back real estate's not back and stocks are not back to where they were this was a loss of perceived wealth so profound that you have to congratulate the Japanese for not going into a depression and people talk about the last decade but that was the last decade where they actually inched forward they actually did not go even backwards for the decade when you're taking that kind of loss of wealth you're in trouble now in the so-called great financial crash which irritates me as a title because I think it was a housing bust the housing market had this perfect three sigma one in 100e outlier bubble had been very very stable historically so to get to that level it only had to go up only he says about 40% or so in 2 to 3 years which it did and then it gave it all back but the trouble with 2007 housing bubble is it took the stock market with it the stock market was not sensationally overpriced but it was a big overpriced bull market it was not in itself a bubble the housing market was a bubble a beautiful magnificent bubble and if you look at it it's perfectly round it goes up for three years it goes down for three years exactly the same speed and it goes all the way back where it came from and the housing bubble inflicted about $10 trillion of loss of perceived value so one minute you thought your house was worth 400,000 3 years later you were told it was worth 550,000 3 years later you were told it was 400,000 and two years after that 350,000 so you had lost an enormous asset and housing markets are much more dangerous because more people own them the middle class in particular that ears very little stock ears a lot of Housing and it really when you lose that value you skip the trip to Portugal and you realize you can't send your second son to private school and it really flows through the system don't do it so what do we have this time we have of the four major asset glasses on the planet we have three and a half in Bubble Land we have Jim Grant would say the most overpriced bond market and the lowest rates in the history of man that go back 4,000 years there is never a time when so much had a negative return where you pay the government to take your money so that's number one number two we're a contender for the highest priced us Equity Market in history I would say a majority of bubble experts think this is now slightly higher than 2000 which was epic and some people do not but at least we can all agree it's a contender and then we have real estate and real estate was kind of offscreen until a few minutes ago and suddenly on some of the databases it has risen 20% in the last 12 months as CH series a little more conservative lags quite a bit I think it's only up 13 but the other series perfectly seriously done up 20 is the sharpest rise sharper than the 70s with inflation and sharper than the housing bubble of 2005 and what that means is metric Wei hero worship is multiple of family income how much does the median house the one in the middle how many multiples of the median family income is it's a nice stable Fair metric it used to be in America that we'd sell at three times family income and in the bubble we kind of went to four and a half or so and then back and we are now at the multiple of family income that we were in ' 06 the very peak of the housing bubble we're back now the rates are very low so all being well you can quote afford it what you can't afford to do if you're a beginner is buy it in the first place how painful for most people High asset prices are they're kind of fun when you own them they're great for retirees who have nothing to do but liquidate their pile of assets but for people who don't have it and for society in general it's a disaster because what has happened over the last 25 years is that the yield on assets has dropped as the price Rose and at 6% you can reinvest and double your money in 12 years and at three it takes 24 years so in 48 years you have a quarter of the wealth ignoring tax for a second a quarter of the wealth that you would have had in the world on average of the 20th century this is terrible and the same with a house you're getting half the house that you used to get for your income it's a disaster for people who don't have assets and the whole society is compounding as well much more slowly it's such a simple arithmetic point but nobody seems to get it it is slowing our wealth creation down and giving us the illusion that we're all getting rich and of course if you have a house you know that the house hasn't changed house was the same house at 300,000 as it was at 450 and back to 300,000 it's the same darned house it doesn't hold off the rain any better in a housing bubble like today it's the same with Stocks by the way they're the same old stocks only in stocks you get the fantasy of pretending that somehow their earnings have gone stratospheric and you can expand the storytelling to fit the available price and that's why bubbles in the stock market are so dangerous but when you look back you find there was no dramatic shift in long-term earning power in 2000s it was just a game we all play there wasn't even in Japan there was a fairly modest upswing in profit margins and profit margins are as I like to say the most provably mean reverting Series in economics so if you pay up for Rising profit margins that is absolutely the wrong thing to do you should pay up for crushed profit margins because they always bounce you should pay down for Heroic profit margins because they always move downwards anyway so here we are we have the trifactor first time in American history the real estate market the bond market and the stock market and then coming up on the rails as they say our Commodities if you take the Goldman Sachs index for non-energy they have a ludicrous total index it's so dominated by oil that when they break out oil and non oil and the total index you can't tell the difference really between the total index and the energy p but if you look at the non-energy part which is all the metals all the critically important foods plus one or two other things like cotton it's back to the alltime high of 2011 it's back to that epic move in Commodities I mean who knew that the broad base of Commodities a lot of them that count are back to the all-time high and the UN Global index of food prices is not far off this 2011 high and then there's more complicated story of energy because energy in terms of fossil TOS is in the endgame the Paradox or the slight irony here I suppose is in the stock market where it really is focused most on the US and although the developed countries are quote overpriced it's fairly business as usual and there are some countries the UK for example and some would argue Japan are not particularly expensive and Emerging Markets seem to be perfectly ordinary which means against the bubble us they're one of the two or three lowest relative points in history and from those other points they have done very very well indeed as recently as 2008 Emerging Market sold at a PE premium to the S&P and now it sells at half and that's a pretty decent discount
Comments 0