저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시 강세 지속 가능성과 IT 섹터 조정 전망을 설명한 인터뷰로, 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 제한적이다. 인도 시장: 니프티가 연초 대비 약 2% 상승한 반면 글로벌 peers는 18~20% 하락해 인도 아웃퍼폼이 두드러진다고 평가. 인도 시장 자금 흐름: 외국인(FII) 매도가 있었으나 인도 비중은 글로벌 시총의 약 3.5% 수준으로 향후 5% 이상으로 높아질 여지가 있다고 봄. 기관 배분은 1% 미만이라 장기적으로 유입 여력 있다고 주장. IT 섹터: 기업이익 기준 은행 다음 2위 비중(약 23~24%)으로 성장했으나, 밸류에이션 디레이팅이 지속 중. 6개월쯤 후 조정이 끝날 수 있으나 경기침체 우려로 추가 조정 가능성도 언급. 자동차: 한 종목(EV 전환 기업)의 실적 성장(분기 25~30%대 기대)과 18~19배 PER을 근거로 3년간 매력적이라고 평가. 시멘트: 아다니의 진출과 업계 통합 기대, 28% GST 인하 가능성을 언급. 중국 대비 인도 수요 성장 여지를 강조. 소비·서비스: 금융, 은행, 자산운용, 보험, 자동차, 부동산 등 소비 관련 성장 기대. 7% 성장 지속 시 주식 투자 유지 및 저평가 종목 발굴을 권고. 리스크: 인도 밸류에이션 부담과 외국인 매도가 주요 우려로, 나스닥 하락 중 인도 증시 강세의 지속성은 시간이 필요하다고 봄. 아다니 트랜스미션: 사업 수익률(ROE) 중시보다 성장 중심 자본 투입 여부를 지켜봐야 한다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 인도 시장 장기 낙관, 단기 IT 조정 가능성 열어둠.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Halftime Report on CNBC TV 18. We have a very special guest joining us now. Ramy Agaral, the chairman and co-founder at Motil Financial Services is joining in from the sidelines of the Motila Losal 18th annual global investor conference. Ramya, good afternoon and thanks for being with us.
Uh I can see the frenetic activity behind you and you know I mean it it's a very uh I think it just showcases the kind of euphoria that this market is in right now. The nifty is up what 2% this year while most global peers are down about 18 20%. Is this enthusiasm something that perhaps could continue through the course of the year and what has the feedback been so far from the conference?
Yeah, good afternoon. Uh you know after 2 years we are doing this conference in physical form. So everybody's very excited and a lot of people have come from Hong Kong, Singapore. not so much a participation from uh US and London this time but uh uh but participation is very intense and one of the thing I'm hearing is that India story is different you know what you are saying about outperformance that's uh that that everybody's noticing and everybody's trying to find macro backdrop for this outperformance and how it is going to happen so I think everybody's excited and let's when we meet the companies uh like uh we just met uh Mahendras and we are just seeing a few more banks presentation and all everybody seems to be excited about what's happening on the ground demand situation is good in fact if anything they are not able to meet the demand so uh I think many more companies there are 200 companies participating with about 12,000 meetings so I think it's going to be a big day big two days tomorrow and uh let's see I mean uh what is the feedback from them right Ramdev hi welcome welcome to the show.
Uh you know you were talking about uh the outperformance that India is seeing but at the same time this the world is expecting a recession probably in the second half of this year globally. Uh in that context uh how would you be placed probably on the IT space? What are investors concerns when it comes to IT?
Do you think that that would probably be a contra investment at this point? Yeah. So uh so you know it has become the second largest uh what do you call market cap category in terms of corporate profits uh the aggregate corporate profit pool after banks the second largest is uh it I mean what used to be about a percentage in 2000 now it's about 23 24%.
So you can't take away the the size of the profits and the quality of the profits. There is hardly any company in the tech which is lossmaking. Every company is profit making. So India has right to win and it's going to be a big story in the years ahead. But what has happened is that uh on the eve of covid and during co the industry got the stocks got vated big time and right now we are we are seeing is a churn.
Uh the private banks are you know banks are on the rise. So to buy that from where will the money come? So clearly there is a churn here and uh and I think uh I don't know when the correction will be over but at some point of time in next 6 months or so uh as the correction gets over I think it is going to throw one of the biggest opportunity to invest as we go forward but maybe some more corrections are ahead because this fear of uh recession is uh is becoming louder and at some point of time maybe uh some uh actual recession will come And at that point of time I think uh psychologically IT companies will be impacted most because the tech companies in US will have the uh largest impact.
So I think uh we are in a very interesting situation of this large industry group. Uh the corporate performance will be good but the P multiples D rating is happening continuously and may continue for some more time. Right. Take that point uh Ramdev. Per- rating of it may continue even as the sector does well.
But I remember clearly uh you know you said that the FIS were getting when they were selling lock stock in barrel you said that they were getting an easy exit from our market but the entry back will not be easy. We've seen that in August FIS bought over 20,000 crores and the nifty rallied from about 15,200 all the way to upwards of or just shy of that 17,500 mark as we speak a little around 17,700.
What are your thoughts on the flows uh coming into India from the FIS now that everyone is looking at India as the only place of outperformance in the world? Yeah. So I mean see today India is about 3 and a half% of the world in terms of market cap. We are about uh uh of the about 100 trillion global market cap we are about 3 and a half%.
And uh in next 3 4 5 years we are very I mean the way the world is today I think India's gain in uh market cap share is going to be quite rapid. So we are heading towards in next decade at least uh to about 5% of the global market cap. I believe the institutional investors have allocated about uh less than 1% uh of their corpass into India.
Now the question with them is that uh they are finding India expensive but uh that's how India is a unique story. It has uh uh its own momentum in terms of uh uh what is happening right now. You cannot price every country same. These two country like two companies are different like that two countries are different.
So at some point of time they'll come to they'll come to realize that India India has its own unique story, its own size, its own momentum. So then I hope they'll get reconciled and India gets it's a fair allocation from FIS in the years to come. So I remain positive optimistic that maybe with a little gap FIS will definitely stop selling but uh they might as earnings momentum is maintained uh I think they would they would come to buy here and build the portion of their portfolio.
Okay. You briefly mentioned that you have over 200 companies I think attending the conference and I think Dr. Anisha of Eminem just spoke a while back. What was the key takeaway that is one stock that has been on a tear? Anything that stood out for you? Yeah. Yeah man I attended the entire presentation.
So the company is uh very in a determined way that uh they uh they are cleaning up all the portfolios of the legacy businesses and building up the on the EV cycle. So it looks very exciting and uh the current CEO uh is completely on top of it. So it's uh I mean they're not able to produce enough to meet the market demand.
This is what the market looks for uh you know 25 30 40% growth at least in next four five quarters. So that's what I think there is a growth bonanza here and I think market will market will remain uh I would I would think at 1819 P multiple I think it looks a good stock good story to pursue uh for next to three years.
Okay, that's an autos Ramdio. Uh, but the other big theme that people can't stop discussing now is cement. I mean, if we were discussing this in 2020 2021, we wouldn't really be discussing as much consolidation which could be, you know, coming up in the cement space. Uh, what are people talking about in cement now?
Would they buy it as simply because of the capex cycle picking up or the fact that there could be, you know, buyers coming through for smaller cement companies? uh what's the theme there? I think the biggest change which has happened in last few months is the entry of Adani into the cement and their ambitious plans about it.
they would be having uh better understanding of the kind of a demand profile which is going to build up in the economy and I think one lever I think where uh uh the GST of 28% for the you know one of the most primary industrial commodity uh in earlier it was being discussed that it could come down to 18% but for revenue considerations it never happened so that could be one more trigger but I think the demand scenario which will be uh which will build over the period of time and the kind of consolidation they are talking about that makes it very interesting.
One number I was seeing was China last year consumed about 2 billion tons of cement. We still about 3 400 billion tons. So I think the scope for this industry to grow and generate lot of cash in the years ahead is there. Now the issue is the kind of change uh this industry is seeing in terms of the imagination uh that uh the kind of multiples this can attract has been quite astonishing right you know RV if uh one's thesis is that India will outperform going forward both as a market and as a GDP and assuming that you know more than 70% of our GDP continues to be consumptiondriven how do you play that pace space I mean uh at at what pace do you think what uh segments of the consumer uh uh you know assets in the stock market will grow and what would your positioning there be?
Yeah. So you know uh services services altogether have been very large part of uh uh Indian economy and uh and that's where I think uh we have an edge global edge we have right to win we have so I have been big fan of uh it also I'm an Indian IT I still remain so uh uh your financial services your banks asset management companies your brokerage companies your uh insurance companies general as well as life.
So everywhere the growth potential is very high and as the as the aspiration to become developed economy as propounded by our finance minister uh takes momentum uh I think uh the outlook for a lot of uh a lot of industries which are connected with the economic growth they will also perk up and uh the opportunities will come uh opportunity will come in uh say automotive uh opportunities will come in lot of other consumer services like retail sorry real estate that has been in the dumps for last 12 years and there I think uh the demand has been very robust across the country uh except for a very very expensive uh flats I believe up to 5 crores 10 cr flats the demands have been very very good so I think uh you have to you know see first thing is to remain invested in equities second is to find stock ideas or bargains at any given point of time India is full of bargains you know full of ideas in the sense that we have 2 three,000 companies listed for everything you'll find an idea.
So there's no doubt of ideas if you have believe that India can keep going at 7% for next three four years. Oh, absolutely. And the market is listening to you Ramo. The the Sensex is up about 300 points right now. But the other big corporate that's speaking at your conference and I'm very keen to know the takeaways is Adani Transmission.
U there is so much opportunity here as well, right? I mean Adani Transmission in their own PPT in their presentation said that there is $30 billion worth of projects for private players to capitalize on. Uh what do you see as the big story here? Because some of these stocks have rallied quite a bit already.
Yeah. So I'm I think that presentation is in the afternoon post lunch. So everybody's looking forward to that uh Mr. Salana's presentation. Let's see what comes out. Uh so I'm also as as keen to see the presentation. So it's a one one of the thing one of the obser about the industry is that it's a return capped kind of industry at about 12% or so.
So we have to figure out how exactly they are going to deploy lot of capital so that the growth is being uh growth is this growth hungry market they're not focusing so much on the roe they're focusing on the growth itself so I think we have to listen to them to figure out what kind of a capital injection they can do in next decade or so Ramu uh what are investors saying as possibly the biggest risk to the Indian markets Huh?
Uh it's just about few hours I think in one-on-one meetings which are going to happen uh through the day. uh and uh a lot of people they don't want to speak out here uh in public in terms of what are the concerns they are just stunned by the level of outperformance and uh the way FI is sold out and uh I spoke to one or two FIS they said uh they are they are trying to impress upon them that uh uh that India story is different don't compare with other emerging markets and uh and hence uh their pessimism is unwarranted that's what they are trying to say they're all Indians.
So uh so I think uh very specific uh I think the only concern I see is the valuation which is the we are uh we are emerging markets right now. Uh so and we are also defying the US the broad trend in the global equities where like other day last week we saw about 5% decline in NASDAQ and all and we were literally flat.
So that kind of a strength in the Indian stock market is it warranted uh is it overdone only time will tell right you take that point only time will tell but you know one thing is for sure Ramdev and we spoke about this with the man management of Indian as well you are doing this after 2 years in uh uh you know you know physically the conference and I presume you've paid a lot for the hotel where you are you know doing this uh conference itself.
So are you thinking of you know recovering this cost by investing in the hotel segment itself hotel sector that's a these are two different uh what do you call verticles I mean there's a sell side which does the conference and they pay for it mean this hotel has never been cheap in the sense that earlier also at one point of time we for 2 days conference we used to pay for 4 days now I think uh the rates are up but I think we are paying for 3 days also So uh that's fine.
I think it's a happy situation to be meeting all of them in person and uh and yes there is there is going to be cost but uh that's fine. Absolutely. I think this was what the industry was craving for over the last two to three years right meeting people physically getting back to those uh corporate travel and meetings and and it's come back in a big way.
So great to hear that Ram all the best with the conference. Thank you so much for joining us. It's quite noisy out there. So, thanks for taking the time out and amidst all the chaos, we hope to hear from you very soon on the key takeaways from that conference. Sure. Sure. Thank you. Okay. Thanks a lot. That's that I'm
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