저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시 약세장은 6월 16일에 저점을 찍었을 가능성이 크며, 당분간 박스권 횡보가 예상되고 장기적으로는 미국 주식 선호·인도 우호적·유럽/중국/원자재 신흥국 회피 입장이다. 에너지·경기: 유가 급등은 세계 경기를 짓누르므로 OPEC+가 공급을 과도하게 줄여 가격을 밀어올리면 안 된다고 주장. 유럽은 에너지 위기로 심각한 경기침체가 거의 불가피하고, 중국은 코로나 방역과 주택버블 붕괴 문제가 지속되며, 미국은 주택 경기침체를 비롯한 '롤링 리세션'을 겪고 있다고 진단. 고용·연준: 7월 고용지표는 좋았지만 좋은 뉴스가 악재가 될 수 있으며, 연준이 9월 FOMC에서 75bp 인상을 단행할 것으로 봄. 9월 13일 발표될 CPI는 에너지 가격 하락으로 0% 또는 소폭 마이너스가 될 것으로 예상하며, 예상보다 높으면 연준이 400bp까지 올릴 수 있다고 언급. 연준 메시지: 잭슨홀 연설과 7월 기자회견은 인플레이션 억제가 최우선이라는 메시지이며, 연준 전망(SEP)상 내년 말 기준금리는 약 4%로 시장이 기대하는 내년 완화는 잘못된 해석이라고 지적. 주식 전략: 6월 16일 저점 가능성이 크고 이번 주가 이번 하락의 저점이 될 수 있다는 의견. 단기 트레이딩보다 장기 보유가 유리하며, 조정 후 박스권 흐름을 예상. 미국이 달러 강세 속 상대적 매력이 있다고 평가. 신흥국: 중국 자금이 인도로 이동할 것이며 인도 시장을 긍정적으로 봄. 강달러와 원자재 가격 약세로 원자재 의존 신흥국(칠레, 브라질)은 피해야 한다고 판단. 유럽 에너지 위기로 전기요금이 올해 300% 급등한 점을 우려. 리스크: 연준의 긴축 지속, 강달러, 유럽 에너지 위기 장기화, 중국 방역·주택 문제가 주요 하방 요인.
다듬은 글
for your time uh so you know the the the news from the energy markets uh is i think uh going to be at in play today we've got the opec plus meeting uh and we've got this pipeline issue so europe pretty much left in the lodge because of this what do you make of it in terms of the impact well i think opec plus has to be careful because if they cause energy prices to go up again uh too quickly it's going to obviously depress the global economy and the global economy has a tremendous amount of challenges we know that the european economy is almost inevitably going to be in a severe recession related to the energy crisis china just still seems to have a lot of problems with managing the covert pandemic and on top of that they've got a housing bubble that continues to lose air and then the united states i think is experiencing what i would call rolling recessions hitting different sectors at different times right now setting the housing recession so uh causing a housing recession so i think opec plus would be well advised to be very cautious about uh cutting back on supply too much and uh pushing prices up too high because as we've seen people do respond to higher prices by cutting back okay and you know good morning uh the you know the debate was on the on the jobs data right a lot of people called it goldilocks the market celebrated then maybe not uh you know that by by close you found out that maybe the celebration was a bit premature but but your thoughts uh in general looking at the numbers and whether you know that changes anything not really i mean they were good good numbers uh and sometimes good news can be bad news i i think it basically uh was strong enough so that the fed will in fact proceed with the 75 basis point hike uh at the uh in a few weeks at the next meeting in the fomc as you folks pointed out there's still that september 13th a cpi to to come out i think it's going to be a a remarkably good number i think it could be zero or slightly negative because we know the gas will down a lot during the month of july we know the car prices have come down and that other prices have been moderating if i'm wrong and we get a surprisingly high number uh then i think the fed's going to go to 400 basis points on the if i think that's why the the stock market did not react uh and initially reacted very well to those numbers but then on second thought there was a recognition that well that's behind us now what's what's ahead and what's ahead is the fed's commitment to bring inflation down and as mr ferguson said the inflation rate remains uh way too high way too much above two percent actually what started in march uh he embarked on what has now become the sharpest round of rate hikes by the fed since the 1980s right and i think that has caught a lot of people perhaps off guard they wouldn't have expected the intensity of the rate hikes to be so soon and so uh so high so in that context ed what do you do with equities as an asset class because since uh fedcham and jerome powell's speech most us markets are already down by about eight to nine percent do you think the worst of it is in the price or is there more to go i do think we made a low in the bear market on june 16th i know that's very controversial now that the market's back down uh the bears are growling that we're going to fall below that maybe that they've been talking about 3 200 300 i think sentiment was so awfully negative on june 16th that i think anybody wanted to sell probably sold by then and so i think we've kind of seen the exhaustion selling uh going on i think this week will be important i think this week we may very well uh make a low for the for this move i think we're going to be in a range for a while the trading range for a while and i think the portfolio strategy is uh most investors who are in stocks know that they're in it for the long haul it's very hard to to trade them it's very hard to play corrections i mean i've seen plenty of people who told you exactly the right point to get out of the market and then forgot to tell you about what to get back in so by the time they told you it's okay to get back in you're back to where kind of you started meanwhile you missed some dividend payments and all that so i i think the bear market's over i think we're going to be in the consolidation phase here we're not going to go straight up for the stock market but i think on a global basis there aren't too many safe havens for investors and the united states continues to look attractive as we can see by the strength of the dollar and by the way as uh you mentioned before uh i agree with chris wood that uh money is going to leave china and go to india and that may continue to also uh support the indian market oh yeah that's been a uh i mean we've discussed that at some length uh here sure uh you know ed just to uh stick to that global point though uh many believe that what uh fetcher powell said at jackson hole actually is a pretty significant turning point you know some even said the reason why that was so short he kept it to seven or eight minutes is because he just wanted to say exactly what he wanted to say and did not want people to pick up other stuff and interpret it in any other way uh so just i mean you know very very focused messaging uh with you're absolutely right yeah sorry go on i mean so if that is significant i mean uh how can we be so sure that uh you know the worst this financial conditioning tightening faces behind us well you know uh if you look at what he said in his press conference at the end of july it was uh it was too much off off off the cuff it was not uh scripted it was not prepared remarks it was what what he responded to in a normal q a fashion but the problem is that uh he talked so much about so many things that you could almost come with any conclusion you wanted to and for some strange reason that i still can't fathom the market seems to have concluded that on balance he was saying that the fed would start to be easier next year and that the pace of tightening would start to slow and that's where he really felt he had miscommunicated and wanted to make it very very clear that the fed's number one priority is to bring inflation down and i think you're right i mean that's why he kept the speech to eight minutes he was very specific about what he said but when i look at the press conference and i look at what he said in both instances he said if you want guidance look at the fomcs the federal open market committee's guidance provided in the summary of economic projections and that very clearly made it showed that the fomc expects the fed funds rate to be at 4 by the end of next year or very close to four percent and so he wanted to remind everybody that where whoever got the impression that they were going to stop uh pretty soon and start easing next year that that was just all just wrong just one final comment on the energy crisis that's blowing up right especially in europe i mean benchmark electricity prices have surged 300 this year what are the implications that this would have on global equities especially perhaps emerging market equities well i think you're very right about uh this uh crisis in in europe it's a a great concern even if they are able to get gas for the winter the next question is then what i mean i mean clearly you want to get through a winter season as best you can but you also want to make sure you have energy on a longer term basis so it's taking a while for them to line up all the alternative sources of energy i think for the emerging markets the main issue is the fed as the typically is and the fed is committed to tightness to strong dollar which means that their currencies are weak commodity prices look like they're starting to weaken so i think generally speaking in the emerging markets uh portfolio tends to be very much influenced by commodity prices and those prices have been weaker so i and of course a strong dollar is also bad for commodity prices and therefore bad for emerging markets but i think uh the emerging markets as an asset play uh now investors have to be much more picky about where they go and i just don't think that you know it's it's either emerging markets or or developed markets i think in this case you don't really want to be in europe you want to be in the us you don't want to be in china you want to be in india and uh the more commodity-related uh countries like chile and brazil maybe those also need to be avoided right now all right uh well ed we leave it at that thanks a lot for joining in always good to hear uh some positive opinion coming through on india so that's eddie yardini saying
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