저자: EdYardeni,TaimurBaig · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시는 6월 16일 이후 불(Bull)이 우위를 되찾았으나 앞으로는 횡보 가능성이 크다는 진단. 미국 경기: 주택경기가 침체의 진원지이나 소비와 설비투자는 여전히 성장 중이며, 하반기 주택 저점과 자동차 회복 가능성 언급. 기술적 침체(상반기)도 데이터 수정으로 사라질 수 있어 경기침체가 오지 않을 가능성도 제기. 연준: 9월 FOMC에서 75bp 인상이 적절하다는 입장, 이후 금리 동결(pause) 권고. 9월 22일 결정은 현 시점에서 확신하기 어렵다고 함. 잭슨홀 발언은 단기 방향 단서로 부족. 인도: 외국인 직접투자 전망은 밝으나 포트폴리오 자금 유입은 불확실. 인도 시장은 이미 좋은 전망을 선반영해 기업 실적이 뒷받침되어야 추가 유입이 가능하다고 봄. 인도 중앙은행(RBI): 경상수지 개선 위해 25~50bp 추가 인상이 연말까지 적정 수준. 유동성 조절 등 다양한 도구 활용도 높게 평가. 인도 성장: 2분기 GDP는 16% 수준의 높은 성장률이 예상되나 기저효과로 이후 6~7%대로 둔화 전망. GST 세수 호조가 공식 부문 활력을 보여준다고 평가. 출연자 전망 요지: 이코노미스트들은 단기 방향보다 횡보·데이터 의존적 접근을 강조.
다듬은 글
not ruled out all right Ed yardini is president at yardini research and we also have them or big managing director and chief Economist at DBS research group research joining us as well gentlemen great to have both of you here thank you very much Ed uh just to begin with you I mean what should we make are the rallies like overnight I mean not about what happened last night but you you tend to get these once in a while uh and I kind of described that as Market swinging between soft and hard Landing expectations right uh I think all right your sense yes yeah my sense the the analogy I would use as a kind of a tug of war between the Bulls and the Bears and uh from January 3rd until June 16th the uh the Bears were clearly winning the tug of war gaining ground if you will uh and then since June 16th uh until now uh the the Bulls have been gaining ground I think now it may be a a standoff where they're going to keep pulling on on the rope and uh maybe not make much progress in other words the market may just go sideways for a while everybody's debating whether it's going to go higher or lower there's that third option that it might just simply go sideways for a little while good morning thanks for joining us uh you know just reading this this uh this call uh that uh you know of course the market will watch out for what uh fetcher has to say at Jackson Hole and then perhaps it would be easier to guess uh I guess it's never easy to guess right what the fomc delivers but what's your base case expectation my basic expectation from the FED is for 50 basis points and to give very little clue as to what they're going to do in late September today so regardless of what the Jackson Hole uh talks uh you know cover I don't think that'll be a very good marker for what the FED will do at the end of September uh simply because there is just way too much uncertainty uh whether it is on the earning side because you know corporate profitability at the end of the day is an important ingredient toward the understanding of how the economy is doing and there is a push and pull there you've got a lot of negatives coming from a higher cost and they're still lingering positives from pre-resilient demand um so are we going to have you know sharp decline in profits are we going to have modest decline in profit in line with the tightening monetary condition so that's one issue I think we have plenty of data points in the next three four weeks to come that will determine that aspect of the economy and then of course there is a big question of inflation and what's happening to rents and what's happening to wages again today is not the day to make a very confident call as to what will happen on September 22 to it's quite far away okay welcome to India by the way I hear that you are uh coming to us live from Delhi so good to have you here how has your trip been so far and uh you know in the context of what's Happening across the globe right we're seeing Sharp Energy issues the cost escalate across whether it's China even in Europe uh GDP uh forecasts have been brought down at a time like that do you think that more money will come into markets like India I'm asking you more from an economy standpoint uh what are you forecasting so it seems to me that the FDI outlook for India is as bright as ever uh and I think the morning newspapers in India are a very good Testament to that we're seeing you know renewed Vigor in the manufacturing space and Pharma space and overall hard infrastructure space a lot of money coming in portfolio is a complicated story uh typically High rate cycle coming from the U.S followed by the rest of the world is a negative for emerging markets and India is no exception at the early part of this rate hike cycle we saw wholesale selling of Indian equities and bonds by Foreign investors things have changed so I think when we look at the data of the last couple of months uh clearly there's you know renewed interest in uh Indian valuations not that Indian market is cheap by any measure when you look at across the Emerging Market space India is attracting a very strong premium you would have to be very confident about the near and medium term Outlook to put additional money in Indian Equity markets on a broad-based basis I'm sure there's specific stocks that are attractive and they're that are not attractive but overall the market is already pricing in very good days ahead of India and India would have to deliver on that India would have to deliver on that uh Ed uh you know the uh the as many have pointed out and when you're speaking at a event like the Jackson Hole right amongst other Central Bankers your peers you know you want to sound uh more than anything else credible right absolutely so should there be any doubt in terms of what uh now of course how the markets interpreted what is the bar for uh being considered hawkish I mean that may depend that may vary but the message should be that we will do whatever it takes right maybe need not say the words that Mario's rage had once said many years ago uh but uh but should we expect that kind of a message absolutely I think uh whatever it takes really is the theme that fed officials have been uh pushing even the doves some of the people who've been very dovish over the past couple of years they're they're squawking like Hawks and so they're all saying that they've got to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down that high inflation is not conducive to economic growth it's bad for the purchasing power of consumers especially low-income consumers so I think the FED has got really no choice but to to talk tough but I think when they actually act they're going to be act acting uh cautiously they're going to respond to the data I do think they're going to do 75 basis points I agree with Bullard that if you're going to raise rates let's get it over with let's front load it and I think the markets want to see it front loaded as well and I think 75 is is a pretty good rate uh increase uh gets us into restrictive area and then a pause would be probably a good idea okay and uh good morning but you know so how to approach the market because there's a bit of a view building up that uh the recession in the US would be a mild one and with the front loading of of uh rate hikes uh the market may actually price is in all the negatives by you know may have already done it already actually uh your view I think it has I agree with you I think it has I think this is the most widely anticipated recession of all times and that means that uh it's either not gonna happen because everybody's being careful or if it does happen it's not going to be pretty mild to me it looks like a rolling recession that kind of go rolls from one sector to the other housing right now is really the epicenter of the recession in the United States but the consumer is still spending Capital spending is still growing I think by the second half of the year uh housing might very well hit its lows Autos may actually strengthen as the supply chain disruptions uh ease and uh meanwhile the consumer may very well continue to spend so it's very possible we won't have a recession and even the technical recession in the first half of the Year may very easily be revised away uh by the data that suggests that uh it may be understating the strength of the economy okay so it's possible that we may not have a recession after all in the U.S uh that's your view that brings us back home right I mean India's growth has been very strong and this robust growth perhaps gives the RBI room uh for more rate hikes through the course of the year what are you penciling in this time right uh of course there is a plenty of room uh for RBI to attack the current account side of the economy Imports need to slow down of course some of the high cost of importers is a function of price not necessarily volume but even when you take the price away there is Need for moderation of demand and that can come through the interest rate Channel and therefore a couple of more uh you know 25 to 50 basis point rate hike from the RBI uh seems to from our perspective you know par for the course for the remainder of the year um again the RBI astutely has developed a wide range of tools over the last decade or so to handle monetary conditions so the liquidity operations that the RBI does and you know I look at it from a cross-country perspective very few central banks are as Adept as handling the repo Market the demand for liquidity the way RBI does in the Emerging Market space so it's not just a blunt tool of interest rate hike but also how it carries out it it's money market operation through the wide range of the instrument that it has I think would be critical to what as the monetary conditions are normalized and of course you know the pocketbooks among Indians have been hurt very badly by the high cost of food and fuel and the Central Bank cannot just say that well that supply side and there's nothing we can do I think overall inflation has to be brought down and the RBA has to be seen doing that it is deploying all the tools at its disposal so I asked you this question there are more preempting your response to the GDP question right because the expectation is that for the June quarter the growth is going to be very strong some are forecasting a q1 GDP growth of even 15 percent uh what are you looking at this time around and how do you think things could shape up through the course of the year in terms of growth right so some of it is of course basically driven our now casting model is showing actually 16.2 growth for the April June quarter uh but of course then we will have a huge payback in terms of Base effect in the following quarter the ongoing quarter and we'll come down to six percent which from an arithmic perspective sounds more of a reasonable number than the one that we'll get for the April June quarter so putting aside all the base effect in arithmetic India is on course to grow at six seven percent clip uh we are seeing the best indicator of that being underscored at the very robust GST collection number nothing uh displays the Vigor of an economy than the formal sectors a revenue collection it tells you that formalization is working it tells you that businesses are okay uh paying those taxes because their revenues are also commensurately going up so after a couple of years of very challenging conditions around the covet lockdown uh this is the year for the reopening Dynamic to work very much in favor of India all right uh we leave it there they're more great to have you with us here if you come to Bombay give us a shout I would love to have you with us here in our Studios appreciate it and it's always a pleasure thank you very much uh for being here on the program as always thanks indeed well we'll take our
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