저자: CharlieChang · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 투자 철학과 성공 요인을 정리한 교육성 영상으로, 특정 종목의 단기 가격 예측은 없다. 버핏은 11세에 첫 주식(시티서비스 우선주 3주)을 샀고, 복리 효과가 장기 수익의 핵심이라는 점을 강조한다. 시간을 두고 꾸준히 투자하는 것(time in the market)이 타이밍보다 중요하다는 논지다. 투자 기준으로는 사업 자체를 이해할 것, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위(해자)를 가진 기업을 고를 것, PER·PBR·ROE(15% 이상)·부채비율(0.5 이하)·영업이익률 등 재무지표를 볼 것이 제시된다. 버핏의 주요 보유종목(애플, 뱅크오브아메리카, 코카콜라, 아메리칸익스프레스, 옥시덴털페트롤리엄)은 경쟁우위가 있는 기업으로 설명된다. 인플레이션 대응으로는 자기 역량에 투자하는 것이 가장 좋다고 하며, 금리는 주식 밸류에이션에 대한 중력과 같다는 버핏의 비유를 소개한다. 금리 상승기에는 주식 가치가 압박받을 수 있으나 장기 보유가 중요하다는 입장이다. 마지막으로 1942년 1만 달러를 S&P500에 넣고 방치했다면 약 5,100만 달러가 되었을 것이라는 예시와 함께, 미국 경제 성장을 믿는다면 저비용 S&P500 인덱스 펀드 투자가 적절하다고 권한다. 영상 중간의 플랫폼 협찬 광고 내용도 포함되어 있다. 개별 자산에 대한 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
so warren buffett started investing at age 11 and is now 91 years old. that's 80 years of investing experience, which, let's be honest, makes him an expert at investing. so after going through hundreds of different articles and interviews, here's what i found from warren buffett, the man who got rejected from harvard and would go on to make 14 million dollars per day. we'll cover exactly how the billionaire investor himself would tell you to invest and how he has been so successful for so long.
if you were curious about what warren buffett first invested in when he was 11, he actually bought six shares of city service preferred, a natural gas company, on that day in 1942 — because it was the day you purchased your first stock, which points out you were 11 years old then, right? i said to my dad, i want to go all in. i had 125 dollars and i put every bit of it into three shares of city service preferred. and that's still my personality, to shove it all in — as we've seen with apple, somewhat. however, the stock doesn't matter as much as the fact that he bought three shares for his sisters at 38 dollars per share. that investment he gave to them would later help shape their entire financial base.
now, a little background. warren buffett is an american business magnate, investor and philanthropist with a net worth of about 125 billion dollars, considered one of the most successful investors of all time. buffett now runs berkshire hathaway, a multinational holding company that has invested in tons of big names like apple, bank of america, coca-cola and american express. if you want to know how successful an investor he is, just take a look at this chart that compares berkshire hathaway's total return to the s&p 500 over 20 years. clearly he's one of the most knowledgeable people out there when it comes to investing.
with all that being said, let's dive into some things we can all learn from buffett. there are a lot of things we can learn from his mistakes, his successes and, most importantly, the actions he took early on to build most of his net worth today. the reason i say that is that if he had not built the financial base he did when he was younger, he would not have the billions he has today. but why does it matter if you start young or old? it's because of something called compound interest. you've probably heard of it before, but it's basically the interest you earn on interest. it's what allows small amounts of money to grow exponentially over time, and it's the reason he was able to beat out jim simons, who had a 66 percent annual return, compared to buffett's 22 percent. because buffett started investing in the 50s, he had a 20-year lead on simons, which resulted in a 72 billion dollar net worth difference.
so what can we learn from this? for starters, if you're already past 11 years old, you should probably start investing, because chances are you are already late to the party, just like i was when i started after college. compared to buffett investing at 11, i think we're all starting a bit too late.
oh, and warren buffett would love a platform like public.com, which is graciously sponsoring this video. public is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. with public you can build a diverse portfolio of stocks, etfs, cryptocurrencies and soon even alternative assets like nfts and collectibles. as you can see, building a diversified portfolio is important for investors like buffett, and public makes investing super easy and convenient. there are zero dollar commission fees on standard stock trades. they also have over 30 cryptos alongside thousands of stocks and etfs, including the most popular cryptos like bitcoin, ethereum and cardano, and they're always adding new cryptos to the platform — for example, they recently added eight coins. you can follow me at public.com/charlie and see what trends i'm following, and you'll also get a free slice of stock worth between three and three hundred dollars when you make an account and deposit. again, that's public.com/charlie to get your free stock. i'll see you there. and now, back to the video.
but the key isn't just investing early. it's also developing a deep understanding of what compound interest is capable of. once you understand compound interest, you'll realize that buffett's investing strategy is not about high annual returns or the amount of money he made in the last year, but about how much he has made over a long period of time. in fact, you can see this play out when you look at the five-year chart, where berkshire hathaway actually underperformed compared to the s&p 500. i'm sure you've all heard the term "time in the market" versus "timing the market," and this is exactly what the term is talking about. instead of trying to make the most money now, you just have to keep investing for longer to beat everyone else.
now, before you spend a dollar investing in any stock, you first need to know what warren buffett looks for in a company he's interested in. let's take a look at how buffett and his business partner charlie munger approach investing through a set of simple philosophies. and the less static there is in that intellectual process, really, the better off you are. what is the intellectual process? it's defining your area of competence, valuing businesses, and then, within that area of competence, finding whatever sells at the cheapest price in relation to value. there are all kinds of things i'm not competent to value. we have to deal with things we're capable of understanding, and once we're past that filter, we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage.
so what can we learn from that? first up, you need to study the business, not the stock. you should not let the price of the stock affect how valuable the company is, which is why buffett advises anyone to learn the business. take tesla stock, for example. if you don't know much about electric cars, will you truly be making an informed decision investing in a stock like tesla or nio? next, does the company have a durable competitive advantage in its market? this refers to the company's moat, or what i like to call a blue ocean. if the company has an advantage over the rest of the competition, it will be able to raise its prices without too many consequences. we'll talk more about this in a bit. last up, as a bonus, let's look at something buffett said back in 1999 at a shareholder meeting that i think is super interesting: "you find small securities in your area of competence that you can understand. i think you can occasionally find little arbitrage situations or little wrinkles here and there in the market. i think working with a very small sum, there is an opportunity to earn very high returns."
what i want to focus on in this clip is how he talks about finding small wrinkles in the market. what he's trying to say is to find stocks that are currently mispriced. sometimes stocks have major sell-offs, and that creates a window of opportunity for active investors to take advantage of. but how do you know if a stock is mispriced? my two favorite ways are looking at the price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio and the price-to-book (p/b) ratio. the p/e ratio measures a company's current share price relative to its earnings per share, meaning if it has a lower p/e ratio, it's considered undervalued. many investors say it's better to buy shares in companies with a lower p/e ratio, because you'd be paying less for every dollar of earnings you receive — in other words, buying at a discount. the p/b ratio compares a company's market price to its book value. if its p/b ratio is under one, your stock would cost less than what the company could theoretically sell for. for investors, this could mean the stock is undervalued, but it could also mean there's something fundamentally wrong with the company.
buffett's methodology for finding low-priced stocks also looks at things like the company's return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio and profit margins. return on equity (roe) is often referred to as the measure of profitability in relation to equity, which basically means how efficiently the business generates profits. this is a really important financial ratio because it helps us understand how a business uses money. warren buffett looks for stocks with a projected roe of at least 15 percent, because that indicates the company is more efficient at generating profit. you'll also want to look at roe over five to ten years to see whether they are getting more efficient, which is another great sign.
the debt-to-equity ratio is total liabilities divided by shareholders' equity, which tells investors whether the company is funding its assets more with equity or with debt. a high debt level compared to equity can result in volatile earnings, so buffett actually prefers a company with a debt-to-equity ratio below 0.5. in other words, for every 10 dollars of equity, the company should only have five dollars in debt. this would indicate growth is being generated more from shareholder equity than from borrowed money. last, we have profit margins, which are net income divided by revenue. a high profit margin suggests a business is doing well, but if you want to find growth, you should also look for rising margins, which would mean the company is efficient and successful at controlling expenses. according to buffett, companies with a gross profit margin of 40 percent or more tend to have a competitive advantage over companies below 20 percent.
with all these ratios and numbers to track, it's important to know that finding these opportunities nowadays is more difficult. let's hear what charlie munger has to say about it: "i would also say that what we did 40 or so years ago was in some respects more simple than what you're going to have to do. we had it very easy compared to you. it can still be done, but it's harder now. you have to know more. i mean, just sifting through the manuals until you find something that's selling at two times earnings won't work for you." over 60 years ago, warren buffett and charlie munger would flip through books to find undervalued stocks, and i bet there weren't many people doing it at that time compared to today. today everyone has access to stock analyses online, but that's not to say there aren't any opportunities out there to buy underpriced companies. as buffett said at the shareholder meeting, if you can find these wrinkles in the market, they can give you an opportunity to get significant returns.
now that we know what he looks for in stocks, let's look at berkshire hathaway's holdings in 2022 and how they fit his investing approach. on cnbc's berkshire hathaway portfolio tracker, we can see that some of berkshire's biggest holdings are apple, bank of america, coca-cola, american express and kraft heinz. what do they all have in common? they are all companies with competitive advantages in the market, which allow them to raise prices without losing customers. let's look at their biggest holding right now, at 43.5 percent, which is apple. berkshire hathaway began buying apple stock in 2016, and after two years they already had a five percent stake in the iphone company. with a company like apple, it doesn't matter much if they suddenly charge extra for their products, because it's not like we're going to stop buying them. buffett clearly sees apple as an essential business for consumers and businesses around the world, with loyal customers willing to pay a huge premium for their products.
let's also look at how this approach applies to berkshire's investments in the banking industry. of the top 10 holdings, five are bank companies: bank of america, american express, moody's, u.s. bancorp and bank of new york mellon. why does berkshire invest so much in banks? consumers and businesses rely on banking institutions to do business and keep the economy running, which makes banking an absolute necessity for most people. even berkshire's most recent investment, in the domestic oil producer occidental petroleum, shows the same logic: oil is another business that most people will pay a large premium for because they have no other choice. especially with the conflict between russia and ukraine, domestic oil production has increased, and as a result prices skyrocketed over 43 percent in february.
now, what you shouldn't do is just go buy any of these stocks right now just because warren buffett did. he's never owned a stock he didn't understand, and that's why i always recommend that you do your research before investing in anything. buffett knows there are stocks he doesn't fully understand, so he stays away from them until he can learn. you know, there are all kinds of things i don't know about, and that may be too bad, but why should i know all about them? i haven't worked that hard on it.
at this point you might be wondering about inflation and how the fed just announced that there will be three interest rate hikes in 2022.
정치·경제 요인이 복합적으로 작용하면서 물가 상승률이 8%를 넘는 기록적인 수준까지 올랐습니다. 휘발유나 식료품처럼 생활에 꼭 필요한 것들이 감당하기 어려운 수준이 될 수 있고, 기업들은 생산 원가를 줄이거나 소비자 가격을 올려야 하는 상황입니다. 인플레이션과 금리 인상이 겹치는 시기에는 투자자들에게 확실히 더 무서운 시기입니다. 그럼 이럴 때 어떻게 해야 할까요?
찰리 멍거가 강조했던 것 중 하나가 지속 가능한 경쟁우위를 가진 기업을 찾으라는 것입니다. 이른바 '해자'를 가진 기업이죠. 버크셔 해서웨이는 이미 이런 방식으로 인플레이션에 대비하고 있습니다. 경쟁우위를 가진 기업들의 주식을 많이 보유하고 있는데, 이런 기업들은 해자 덕분에 인플레이션 속에서도 시장 점유율을 지킬 수 있기 때문입니다.
그렇다면 버핏은 인플레이션에 대해 또 무엇을 추천할까요? 그는 인플레이션에 맞서는 최고의 투자는 자기 자신의 소득 능력, 즉 자신의 재능을 키우는 것이라고 말합니다. 자신의 재능을 최대한 발휘하는 사람은 아주 드뭅니다. 재능을 키워 두면 그것을 키우는 동안에도, 그 이후에도 아무도 그것을 세금으로 떼어 가거나 빼앗아 갈 수 없습니다. 즉 이 클립에서 그가 말하는 핵심은 자기 자신에게 투자하고, 물가 상승을 감당할 수 있도록 재능과 기술을 쌓으라는 것입니다. 이렇게 생각하는 사람은 많지 않지만, 기업가로서 기술을 쌓는 것은 아무도 빼앗을 수 없기 때문에 정말 중요하다고 생각합니다.
이제 금리 인상기의 투자에 대해 알아보겠습니다. 2021년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 영상을 함께 보겠습니다. 버핏이 금리가 자산 가치에 미치는 영향을 두고 "금리는 물질에 대한 중력과 같다"고 한 것은 무슨 뜻일까요? 이렇게 생각해 보시면 됩니다. 중력을 줄이면 더 높이 뛸 수 있고, 중력을 키우면 높이 뛰기 어려워집니다. 지난 2년간 금리가 매우 낮았기 때문에 주식 밸류에이션이 크게 뛰었습니다. 하지만 이제 금리가 오르고 있으니 주식 밸류에이션이 압박을 받을 수 있습니다.
그렇다고 겁을 주려는 것은 아닙니다. 실제로 이런 일이 일어난다면 오히려 좋은 기회가 될 수 있습니다. 금리가 계속 오르고 인플레이션이 뜨거운 상태가 이어지면, 돈이 시장에서 빠져나가 채권으로 이동하게 됩니다. 그러면 주식은 할인된 가격에 거래되고, 그때가 투자하기 좋은 시기가 될 수 있습니다. 다만 장기적으로는 큰 차이가 없습니다. 찰리 멍거가 말했듯이, 주식을 살 때 돈을 버는 것도 아니고 팔 때 돈을 버는 것도 아닙니다. 기다릴 때 돈을 법니다.
마지막으로 2018년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회에서 버핏이 했던 이야기로 마무리하겠습니다. 1942년에 1만 달러를 S&P 500에 투자하고 한 번도 들여다보지 않았다면 지금 얼마를 갖고 있을까요? 당시에는 인덱스 펀드가 없었지만, 사실상 S&P 500을 산 것과 같습니다. 그리고 주식 시세를 다시는 보지 않고, 누군가의 조언도 듣지 않았다고 가정해 봅시다. 답은 5,100만 달러입니다. 그동안 아무것도 하지 않아도 됐습니다. 회계를 이해할 필요도 없고, 아주 느긋한 철학을 가지면 됩니다. 회계나 주식 시장 용어를 많이 알 필요도 없고, 연준이 다음에 금리를 세 번 올릴지 네 번 올릴지 두 번 올릴지도 중요하지 않습니다. 평생의 투자에서 중요한 것은 자신이 따르는 철학을 가지고, 왜 그 투자를 하는지 이해하고, 모르는 것은 잊어버리는 것입니다.
그러니 여러분이 2022년에 어떻게 투자할지 알고 싶다면, 스스로에게 한 가지 질문만 던지면 됩니다. "앞으로 50~100년 동안 미국 경제와 기업들이 성장할 것이라고 보는가?" 답이 '그렇다'라면 그것은 고민할 필요가 없는 명확한 결론이며, 이해할 수 있고 해자를 가지며 쉽게 규모를 키울 수 있는 기업에 투자하면 됩니다. 여러 기업을 들여다볼 시간이 없다면, 버핏도 추천하는 방법을 쓸 수 있습니다. 바로 S&P 500 지수를 추종하는 저비용 인덱스 펀드에 투자하는 것입니다. 그러면 큰 기업들을 한 번에 모두 살 수 있습니다. 회계를 잘할 필요도, 신문 헤드라인을 볼 필요도, 월가 사람들이 시장을 이기는 방법을 알려주는 말을 들을 필요도 없습니다.
기억하세요. 워런 버핏은 2010년에 순자산이 390억 달러였지만, 지금은 1,200억 달러가 넘습니다. 이는 그가 일찍 시작했기 때문에 가능했습니다. 지난 10년간 200% 넘게 늘어난 셈이죠. 복리는 기하급수적으로 성장하기 때문에, 워런 버핏처럼 수동적으로 투자하고 싶다면 인플레이션이 높고 금리가 오르더라도 계속 투자해야 합니다. 인내심을 가지고, 더 중요하게는 꾸준해야 합니다. 시장의 타이밍을 맞추려 하지 말고, 몇십 년 동안 계속 투자한다면 복리의 효과를 누리며 장기적인 부를 만들 수 있습니다. 워런 버핏의 투자 모델이 바로 이것입니다.
이 영상이 여러분에게 도움이 되었기를 바랍니다. 이 영상을 만드는 것은 정말 재미있었고, 워런 버핏에 관한 클립들을 모두 보는 것도 정말 흥미로웠습니다. 그 사람은 정말 투자의 천재입니다. 영상이 마음에 드셨다면 좋아요 버튼을 누르고, 이런 영상을 더 보고 싶다면 구독도 부탁드립니다. 저는 개인 재무, 투자, 창업에 관한 콘텐츠를 많이 만들고 있습니다. 시간 내주셔서 정말 감사하고, 다음 영상에서 뵙겠습니다. 평안하시길요.
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