저자: 주아부트 · 한국인
요약 보기
4월 말 2차 실적 시즌 발표를 짚으며 MSFT·GOOGL·META·QCOM·AAPL 실적과 주가 반응을 정리. 나스닥(QQQ)·필라델피아반도체지수(SOXX) 차트상 저점 근처에서 거래량 급증, 가짜 바닥 가능성을 언급하며 FOMC(5/3~4) 이후 반등 시나리오를 제시. 추가 조정 후 진짜 바닥이 나온다는 입장으로, 현재 손절은 하지 말고 5일선 돌파 등 신호에 분할 매수하라고 권고.
다듬은 글
5 Hello investors, this is Jua Boot. Today, we will review the earnings of companies that are currently releasing their second round of reports and their corresponding stock prices. After that, we will first take a look at the AstraZeneca QQ and the SUX Semiconductor Index. 4 First, let's look at Microsoft's earnings.
They announced them on the 26th. The consensus for earnings per share (EPS) was $2.19, but the actual figure came out a bit lower than the start estimate of $2.22. Revenue was also 4.9 billion, or around 4.93 billion, which was slightly better than the market consensus. Consequently, the stock price surged by as much as 7.6% during the trading session.
However, as the market generally declined, it closed at around a plus of 4.8%. A notable point is that you can see the trading volume increasing steadily here. So, along with solid earnings, Microsoft's stock price trend was also decent. Next is R8. Let's look at Google's earnings. The market There was a consensus, right?
We were expecting earnings per share (EPS) of $25.7. However, the actual announcement was $24.62. So, it is disappointing. Revenue was also expected to reach $ 68 billion, but the actual announced figure was $68.0 billion, which is similar to that figure. However, EPS improved slightly. That is why the market expressed disappointment.
Additionally, there was an announcement that YouTube advertising revenue decreased. This caused some disappointment. So, it started with a negative sign. The stock price is -1.2%, which is enviable. Ultimately, we can wrap up at the center of -3.75%. So, we can view this as selling pressure from disappointment.
Now, let's look at the metal stock. Regarding the number of sister platforms, Facebook gave us a lead. We're keeping this one in mind. They announced their earnings after the market closed yesterday. As I mentioned last week, we had more in the market in the past. Because, well, last year's Q4 earnings were very bad.
So, this time too... Fearing things might get worse, the market was predicting that earnings per share would be $2.56. However, looking at the actual results after the big event, the earnings per share were announced, and they came out much better than expected. So, looking at the chart here, it is currently pre-market.
The current time is 10:20 on April 28th, so the market will open soon. In pre-market, it is currently rising by about 14%. So, they announced earnings that temporarily eased concerns, so it is showing a very positive trend. Thanks to that, the Nasdaq index is also rising well. We will take a look at how things unfold once the actual market opens later.
Now, next is Qualcomm. They briefly came out to announce their earnings. To start with the earnings report, they stated that the earnings per share would be $2.95. However, for the actual announcement, they changed the figure to $3.20. Yes, they announced earnings per share of $2.20. And revenue was the same.
The market was predicting 10.6 billion, but looking at the actual announcement, it showed very solid results of 11.16 billion. They announced earnings that were much better than expected. Consequently, despite the poor market conditions, Qualcomm is showing gains of over 5, 6, and 7% in the pre-market.
It seems like a factor worth watching to see if they can maintain this upward trend today. Apple is expected to make an announcement after the end of the day. So, how will the discussion turn out? Let's take a look at the forecasts. Based on 2 ps, earnings per share were 2.1 last quarter, but this time, the consensus forecast has risen to 1.43 dollars.
So, the actual earnings per share for the fourth quarter announced last April were 1.46 dollars. Then, compared to the year- on-year debut, the forecast for the fourth quarter of this year is being viewed as a bit weak at 1.43 dollars. And last I am viewing it as a bit weaker than the quarter, so the market consensus seems to be taking a somewhat conservative view regarding Apple's earnings.
Therefore, the market consensus is taking a conservative stance, and I think tomorrow's stock price will be influenced by what kind of earnings are released. Next, let's take a look at the trends of the Nasdaq QQ and SOX, an ETF that tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. This is the chart you are looking at right now.
There is a disabled indicator. This is the QQ daily chart. If you look at this chart, as I mentioned last time, it is currently showing a significant trend. It is now at the bottom level here, right here, which was hit in late June or March. And right now, here is the candle coming out in the pre-market.
Anyway, it seems it will start in positive territory, as it is 10:22. Yes, the market seems to be opening soon, but currently, Apple is showing a positive 1.74% rise in the market. Okay, then how should we interpret this? I will explain it now. In terms of significance, at the previous low point... Regarding the meaning line, specifically how this is moving, it returned once on the 22nd like this.
Then, that is the low point for the E11 line. And from here, the 20-day moving average is coming down once more. Then, the point of contact is the 5th stage. Then, the piezoelectric 20-day moving average has set. And the low point of the 21-day moving average that is currently being brought in is currently fighting against each other at the previous optimal line.
And if you look at the current trading volume, yes, it is rising straight up from the bottom and gradually increasing. Now, regarding how this is going to proceed, it slid down due to the shock caused by the Fed Chair officially declaring that he would urgently raise the rate. As a result, there are now people selling, and regarding large-scale funds, what will they do?
If interest rates are raised, they will have to adjust their portfolios. Especially since they are also managing things like bonds here, as the funding interest rates change, they will start adjusting the weight of portfolios such as tech stocks that are heavily distributed. In that case... If we are adjusting these weightings, we would need to sell some and buy others.
Now, this portfolio adjustment process is manifesting right here in the flow. We saw the time in March when they mentioned interest rate hikes via the Big Stock Market, then last March, and now that it has been officially announced, we have reached that position again. In that case, the market has clearly grasped all of this, and people are already adapting to these interest rate hikes.
It has all been reflected in the market. Large-scale funds have already undergone a shift, and there are also those who sold off in fear. Conversely, there is also a lot of buying coming in at low prices. As selling and buying pressures are forming a three-tiered structure, the volume is exploding. Now, let me show you another unique point.
Since trading volume was mentioned, when the stock price falls like this, the volume surges until it approaches the bottom. Let's look at this point. As it came down, the volume changed all the way to the previous layer, so it shot up sharply. And this time, as it continued to fall and neared the point where it formed a focal point, within the meaningful line of that moment, again...
It looked like the market was steadily rising. Now, even then, it kept coming down, and until the sea formed—that is, until that point—we are seeing the market surge. In other words, up to the zone where selling and buying pressure collide, the volume explodes, and it appears to be forming a bottom at that time.
Now, this is n't something to look at in depth as a technical indicator; I mentioned it for reference because I didn't see Singularity 3. There isn't any special technique for this, but I noticed a singularity showing a similar pattern, so I mentioned it as a point of reference. So, let's take a look at how to respond here.
As I mentioned during the Piezoelectric session, it is exactly the same. In its own zone, in the low zone just before the meaningful line, we will have to look at the closing price tomorrow morning to see how the candle will turn out today. However, let me go over how it should emerge once more in advance.
First, the first step is that a long bullish candle must appear. Specifically, a bullish line that supports the previous blue circular candle must appear first; that is the number one area. Next, the 5-day moving average is currently coming down It is coming up, and the conversation needs to shift here.
However, when a long bullish candle appears, the next step is for this moving average to rotate. Then, when the price rises, how high it will go is pretty much predetermined. The maximum was broken, so the maximum was reached up to the low point. What will happen to the 20-day moving average during this time?
It will naturally keep falling to keep the 20-day moving average at bay, so it might hit the 20-day moving average. Why is it here? Because it is an overnight stay, it is a cucumber sailor turn in the market. For a turn to occur, it is set up to receive resistance from every item. It doesn't work the same way.
In stocks, you always have to do it twice. So, I don't know exactly where, but regarding the maximum one, the line where the focus collapsed just before this, it will go up somewhere according to the neta technique. Therefore, after receiving a correction, it will fall one more time. When it falls one more time, another important thing is that it could break this low point here.
It might break it. He has to watch it. It is probably a prediction. But this timing is right here, next week, the warm Tuesday. There is a FOMC meeting on May 3rd and 4th. I think we might be affected around that time depending on the results of the FOMC meeting. There are many events remaining for this sector.
At times like this, we need to stay grounded. I mentioned that the current turnaround is above the bottom, right? That is correct; I called it a desperate struggle. It is rebounding, but it is a false bottom. When is the real bottom? It will undergo another correction and turn around; that corresponds to the final wave, even if you use a long position.
And if it gives a two- turn like this, the next step is the true bottom. That is when a proper SQ11 pattern will appear. You must place your bets properly at this time. I explained this requirement once more at the Fox position when placing at the bottom. So, please set up your trade for this as well, and we need to watch the market to see if a staircase pattern appears.
The trading day has just started. So, let's take a quick look. SQ has opened with a gap up. How many percent? The opening price started at +1.6%. Right now, it is starting with a positive bullish candle in the early stages. However, we will have to wait and see how this unfolds. If we analyze this theoretically and technically, considering limits of 2, 3, 4, and 5, the average value of the scandal is currently here.
Then, comparing the current price to the previous price that is rapidly slipping away, and comparing it to the price before that, the slope of the 5-day moving average is still downward. Therefore, because of the previous setback, even if the price rises, selling pressure could emerge again. There is a high probability that it will form an upper wick here and come down again.
Anyway, if it does not break the low point any further and rises from here, and even if it drops by 10 minutes, holds onto the low point and holds here, it will immediately reach the 3rd place. By the very next week, it will have reached the position where the 5-day moving average can turn around. If that happens, then the next market downturn will be at the beginning of the period.
Since the FOMC meeting is coming up right away, we need to see how the market reacts at that time. In other words, the resolution of uncertainty could serve as a pretext for a market recovery. However, this does not mean it will definitely happen this way. There is a prerequisite that it must go up once and then come down again, so it might fall after going up or crawling sideways.
There are three possible scenarios, such as Hogan falling and then rising, or various other situations. However, the first one seems to be the most likely one right now. Currently, the price is flowing in the upper direction; if it turns once due to the resolution of uncertainty, corrects once more from there, and then breaks out and rises one more time, that really means something.
Then, the 21-day Thunder will form a one-turn two-tone pattern here, and if the 5-day Thunder forms a one-turn two-tone pattern here, or if a staircase pattern appears, it will enter a zone where you can feel safe. I will explain the next target point when the line appears. Anyway, what we are waiting for is a double turn like this.
If the 5-day line is thick and the 20-day line shows a double turn, the market will rise quite strongly at that time. We are waiting for this. That is why I told you not to cut your losses now. It would be truly unfair to cut your losses now. You have never experienced anything like this before. Please do not cut your losses now.
Also, it is not the right time to just cut your losses immediately here simply because it has risen a little. It will likely move within this range anyway, so the percentage page isn't that significant here. I've already lowered my allies outside of this area. When you come and go just from here, answering and writing Part 4 here, and jump right in, it does n't seem necessary to go so far as to incur a loss.
The important thing is to wait for that "one drop" I explained earlier—when the really low point C appears. If you have cash on hand at that time, driving the stock seems like a good idea. Now is not the time for aggressive trading. For those who are a bit impatient, please come over here for the first round when entering a turnaround and it breaks through the 5-day moving average.
If you want to place a buy order of 10 and have that much cash on hand, then just put about one-third of that amount here. Then, when it gives another sudden pull and a signal to take the weight comes out, if you participate with a multiple of that one-third, you will be able to make a large profit when it goes straight up from here.
For those who have already exhausted all their cash and have a large 100% reserve, simply holding seems to be the answer. Then, or Depending on the Star size, the same would apply to the Source. Looking at the current shape, it has broken the previous low, but the pattern currently flowing is exactly the same as the QQ you saw last night.
Q rose along with the Red and Star Key Guardian Spirits. Also, the rate of increase is quite good. Currently, it is rising by about 2.5%. Well, we will have to see how it makes sense tomorrow, but anyway, it is the same for this one. The important thing is that even if it gaps up now and drops again tomorrow morning, if it breaks the low and expands sideways a bit, then it is relatively okay.
Since the wave involves entering a One-Two-Three, Heo-Sa-Pa-Jeong pattern even within the Long range, you should watch until the last Op-Ha. Then, it might give a double turn here or a Five-Wave. So, it is continuing a pattern that is not much different from the QP I explained earlier, and then Sok-Ssu.
Please watch it carefully right now. So, please exercise the wisdom to respond appropriately when a Lari appears. Here is the solution. Solo. As I mentioned last time, I believe we should remain the same: let's not follow the positive rebound. In other words, let's respond actively when that specific day arrives—when the top 5 signals I just explained appear.
It is currently a very confusing market. It is ambiguous and full of 고민 (worry/concern) as to whether to buy or sell when it goes up, or to wait for the next opportunity when it falls. However, as I explained the method, if you look at the market with a mindset of staying grounded and waiting for that day, the answer will become clear.
Therefore, I hope we can successfully overcome this crisis and make this a year where we can make a profit and smile. Until the day we become rich through stocks, we must hold on. Thank you for starting.
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