저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
요약 보기
테리 스미스의 Fundsmith 13F 상위 10개 보유 종목(마리엇, 워터스, 알파벳, IDEXX, ADP, 비자, 필립모리스, 스트라이커, 메타, 마이크로소프트)을 리뷰. 대부분 과거 주가 상승·자사주 매입·배당을 근거로 우량 복리주로 평가. 다수 종목에서 GuruFocus 가치와 현재가를 비교해 고평가 가능성을 언급했고, 애널리스트 목표가를 제시. 단, 1~3개월 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없고 전반적으로 장기 관점.
다듬은 글
Terry Smith owns 40 stocks worth $24.5 billion doll in his fundsmith portfolio today we're covering his top 10 Investments on his 13f starting with number 10 Marriott Marriott's owned by five Super investors and this is led by Smith where it makes up 4.2% of his portfolio reported on his 13f in the last quarter he very slightly trimmed his position Marriott is the $71 billion Hotel giant that's trading just $5 off of its 52e high the management and brand part of the business was originally spun off from their real estate assets back in the late 1990s since then and especially since the global financial crisis this stock has performed very well Marriott was hit really hard during the pandemic when their sales were cut by more than half at the same time they have rebounded strongly and now they're actually posting all-time highs for free cash flows the company's returns were suffering before 2020 and since then they've been increasing one big thing to like about Marriott is they're returning a lot of capital to shareholders today they just have a modest dividend yield of 1.02% but they bought back nearly 7% of their shares in the last year alone as we look at the company's valuations however it looks like Marriott's out ahead of most of these they're just trading below their historical price to sales despite their recent strong performance this is why a guru Focus value for the company only comes in at $253 per share just $5 above their current stock price analysts aren't as optimistic on the business and estimate that their stock price would be about flat going forward but who's to say Terry Smith's a legendary investor and he's the founder and CEO of fundsmith he's been called the English Warren Buffett for his style of growth investing he's an author and he wrote the book investing for growth how to make money by only buying the best companies in the world Terry Smith's Investment Portfolio showcases a strategic selection of robust stocks these reflect his focus on sustainable growth and Market leadership each of his Investments embody these core tenants and there key attributes that can appeal to a broad base of potential investors tuned into resilient stocks for their own portfolios Smith's based in Britain and he has major European and international Holdings that aren't going to show up here stock number nine in his portfolio is Waters three super investors own this stock and it's led by Terry Smith again who has 4.3% of his 13f Holdings in the business again Smith trimmed slightly in the last quarter and AKO Capital has a 35% position in the company as well water sells analytical tools for the healthcare and life science businesses and today they're a $21 billion market cap that's just $4 below their 52e high this is another company that performed reliably in its past although today they're trading for 36 times earnings with just a brief blip in 2017 this company produces a lot of free cash flow and they also have high Returns on Capital One thing to note is they've added more debt in the past couple of years but this is still easily supported by their cash flows up until recently Waters was using a major portion of the cash on its balance sheet to buy back shares but this stopped in 2024 and the company has slightly diluted shareholders at these higher prices water seems to be ahead of their historical valuations this is why a GF value for the company comes in at only $322 per share which is down $40 from their current stock price indeed their cash flows point to a potential fair value that could be 25% lower than today analysts also have a Target price of $325 per share that's down 9% stock number eight in Terry Smith's portfolio is alphabet the parent company of Google alphabet's GOOG Shares are owned by 33 different super investors and it's the most popular super investor stock this is led by the Chinese Warren Buffett Lee Lou Who has 18% of his us listed portfolio invested in the company Smith's farther down the line of super investors with 5% of his us Holdings invested in alphabet as one of the largest tech companies in the world the search giant has a $2 trillion market cap that's down $30 from their 52e high this comes as a lot of big tech companies are trading at their all-time highs again alphabet's one of the top stocks in the past decade and they performed extremely well since they ipoed in 2004 their financial numbers are close to exactly what Smith is looking for they've grown a lot in the past decade they have a net cash position on their balance sheet they they generate a lot of free cash flow and they earn pretty strong Returns on Capital speaking about Capital they've started returning a lot to shareholders alphabet's been buying back shares since 2019 Additionally the company started paying dividends in 2024 right now they have mod a 0.5% dividend yield but with their share BuyBacks they have a 3% shareholder yield that's among the highest in big Tech alphabet looks like it trades in line with most of its past valuations this is also the case with a GF value which today comes in at $160 per share just around their current stock price analysts are more bullish on the company and they want to see a Target price of $195 per share that's up 19% idex Laboratories is the seventh stock in Smith's portfolio and he's one of just two super investors who owns the company this makes up a 5.3% holding in his 13f idex produces diagnostic equipment and services for the veteran Aran pet and livestock Industries the company has a $42 billion market cap and they're trading $65 below their 52- we highs idex is another historical strong performer especially since the global financial crisis although today they trade at a lofty 50 times earnings their numbers again are ideally what Smith is looking for they've grown consistently in the last decade and they generate a lot of cash with just some minor blips here and there i' EX also earns above average Returns on Capital and they use some debt in their business although this is covered by their cash flows in the last decade they were buying back shares in every single year except 2024 at these higher valuations idex has slightly deluded shareholders this can make sense for the company and actually be good Capital allocation as idex is trading way ahead of most of their historical valuations still this is a pretty wonderful company that's been recognized as such by the market market and today a GF value comes in at $550 per share that's up $50 or 10% from their current stock price the cash flow numbers don't support that but they don't take all the qualities of the business into account either these imply a pretty brutal 65% downside the only analyst covering the business has a Target almost exactly at today's stock price ADP is next on the list at number six Smith is one of three super investors who owns the business and it's 5.4% of his portfolio Jensen Investment Management has had some overlap and also has a 3.6% position ADP the tax and payroll provider is a $11 billion company that's trading just $5 below its 52e high historically ADP has been a longterm compounder they've been pretty slow and steady even though they had a period of dead money from the late '90s during the do com bubble up until about the mid 2010s there's competition and payroll in HR but overall many companies are locked into their providers this has allowed adp's cash flows and sales to steadily increase in the last decade ADP is different from some of Smith's other companies and that they really don't earn that high of Returns on Capital still though the company again steadily buys back its shares and Smith's Holdings have increased over time because of this to add more ADP is on the cusp of becoming a dividend King they've grown their dividends 49 years in a row including 12% dividend growth last year alone today they pay 2% dividend and with their share BuyBacks have a 3% shareholder yield now before we get to Terry Smith's top five stocks if you're enjoying the video you can get even more fair value content absolutely free over on our patreon if you want to support Global value subscribe there or become a YouTube channel member to help make more great videos like this one stock number five for Terry Smith is Visa the payments giant is owned by 22 different super investors and this is led by Chris hone who has an 11% position in his portfolio Terry Smith has a 6% holding and again he trimmed this just slightly in the last quarter Visa is the biggest payments company in the world and they have a $544 billion market cap today trading just $16 off of their all-time highs visas performed wonderfully in their last decade and that's the case historically again though this is a company trading at 30 times earnings steady their numbers show steady growth and despite recent anti-monopoly rulings Visa hasn't earned ridiculously high Returns on Capital these have been steady and above average but not egregious Visa also returns a lot of capital to shareholders both through share BuyBacks and through dividends Visa is a dividend growth stock growing their dividends 16 years in a row and by 15.5% last year alone today the company has just over a 3% shareholder yield based on their valuations and Market estimates today a GF value comes in at $291 per share that's close to its all-time high but it's up from today's stock price their cash flows alone might not take all the qualities of the company into account and they project around a 24% downside with a $28 fair value analysts are much more bullish than either of these with a $316 price Target and a 15% upside Morris is next on our list at stock number four the tobacco giant stock price has rocketed in 2024 and it's owned by eight super investors with this being led by Smith both Smith and Thomas Russo the next close investor have around a 6% holding in the company Philip Morris is the world's leading tobacco company and they trade just $7 off of their 52e highs today they have a market cap of 87.5 billion their numbers show that things have more or less been flat for the business in the last decade but they still trade at attractive multiples compared to their cash flows and they produce a lot of this the company's very asset light with little capital reinvestment and they earn very high Returns on Capital shown here Philip Morris has grown their dividends for 11 years but including back to when the company was spun off from Ultra Philip Morris is actually a dividend King they've grown their dividends for almost 60 years in a row today they pay a big Market beating 4.46% dividend yield with the rise in their stock price now it looks like Philip Morris is above its GF value which is $111 per share analysts have a consensus here with a 9% upside and a $131 Target price Striker is the third stock in Terry Smith's portfolio and it's just owned by Smith and Jensen Investment Management again there's overlap with their Holdings and Smith has a 5.7% position in his portfolio Striker is a healthcare giant that has a $137 billion market cap and trades just $12 below its 52e highs historically this again is a compounder and in the past couple of decades they've done well increasing their stock price by 9 to 10 times since the global financial crisis Striker numbers look like they're somewhat of a mixed bag with decreasing Returns on Capital in the past decade this still comes as the companies steadily grown their sales and they do generate a lot of cash flow today though they use more debt in their business than they have historically still Striker is a dividend growth stock growing this 14 years in a row and increasing it by 6.7% last year alone today though they just have a modest 0.9% dividend yield Striker has some lofty valuations compared to to their history this is why their cash flows project a 27% downside with just a $262 current fair value analysts have a Target that's pretty close to their current stock price the second biggest stock in Smith's us Holdings is meta platforms 25 super investors own this today and Smith has a 10% position in his portfolio Rob venol leads super investors with this making up 22% of his Holdings meta the social media giant has a 1.4 billion dollar market cap and it's trading at its alltime and 52e highs in the last decade there's almost no stock with a crazier chart than meta they traded as low as $80 a share at the end of 2022 and have since then riveted back they're up more than seven times in the last 2 years alone that came with huge Market fears that the company was spending recklessly on the metaverse and that their growth had completely stalled out more recent Financial results have shown that this isn't the case still though things may not be as predictable as they once were thought to be meta like their big Tech Pier alphabet has been buying back shares for the past 6 years they've steadily reduced their share count over this time this includes buying back 45% of their shares in 2022 alone and just like Google meta started paying dividends to shareholders right now they have a modest 0.35% dividend yield compared to historical valuations however meta looks to be significantly above these a GF value only comes in at 380 8 for the company and that has a lot of growth implied in it at one point meta may have been severely undervalued but that might not be the case today based on their cash flows it looks like meta may have a downside of Just Around 6% that's not as bad as their GF value May imply analysts are looking for the business once again to trade higher with the majority of them having buy recommendations and a 4% consensus upside now Smith's top stock is by far his favorite he's held this company since founded fundsmith and today it makes up 133% of his portfolio that company is Microsoft Microsoft is owned by 32 different super investors and it's the second most owned super investor stock no surprise the bill and melind Gates Foundation trust has the biggest holding with this being 33% of their portfolio Alto Rock Partners is next at 18% followed by Smith who has 133% of his us listed Holdings in the company since when he first reported his 13fs Smith's been holding the company before or 2018 in that time it's made up a significant portion of his Holdings and the company's stock price has more than quadrupled Microsoft is one of the top performing stocks of all time and they've really blown things away in the past decade this comes even after they reached a peak during the dotom bubble that wasn't seen again in their stock price until the early 2010s in the early 2010s Microsoft was at just 12 times earnings today this has climbed up to 36 times and that's not likely to repeat itself much of the market thought all growth had start for Microsoft in the early 2010s but since then their growth has been some of the steadiest their sales earnings and cash flows have continued climbing almost each and every year at the same time the company has net cash and they earn great Returns on Capital these have declined in the past couple of years as they're spending more and more on capex however from 2013 until 2023 Microsoft was buying back a lot of shares this was the case each and every year but things suddenly changed in 2024 at these lofty valuations Microsoft again is deluding shareholders for the first time in over a decade it's not always thought of this way but Microsoft's actually a dividend growth stock they grew their dividend by 10% last year and they've grown their dividends 19 years in a row today they have a modest 0.78% dividend yield Microsoft seems to be well ahead of their historical valuations still Microsoft's a wonderful Company Warren Buffett said so himself today their GF value comes in at $424 per share and this is well recognized as being a great company by the market even with historically high prices analysts want to see Microsoft trade higher with a 19% upside Terry Smith has actually trimmed all 10 of his top us Holdings in the last quarter the biggest reduction was made to Microsoft and the smallest was made to Google or alphabet based on sizing it's likely he only added small positions to foret and Texas Instruments but these are well outside of his top 10 now these are the top 10 stocks in Terry Smith portfolio on his 13f which of them are you most interested in let me know in the comments below
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