저자: Eddie · 한국인
요약 보기
화요일 밤 발표되는 비농업고용 연간 벤치마크 수정치가 시장 변동성을 키울 수 있고, 목요일 물가지수(근원 CPI 3%대)가 거시 방향을 좌우할 것으로 봄. 금리 인하 여부는 고용·물가 조합에 따라 갈림. 추가로 에코(ECO) 급등, 에코스타의 스페이스X 인수 관련 통신주 조정, 로빈후드 S&P500 편입 급등, 마이크로스트래티지 편입 탈락 하락을 짚음. 정치 뉴스(베선트-풀 설전)는 증시 예측과 무관.
다듬은 글
A significantly important indicator was released during Tuesday's trading session, and this could cause significant volatility. After this indicator was announced on August 21 of last year, the market fell by 2%, and the decline has continued since then, dropping by nearly 10% . And on September 18, as the Fed implemented a 50pp rate hike or a big step, the market began to recover from then on .
Anyway, this indicator is the revised benchmark non-farm employment figure released annually by the Bureau of Labor, and as the downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs disappeared last year, the market fell by nearly 10%, as seen just now . On average, it moves plus or minus 0.1% to 1%, so generally speaking, it fluctuates by about 40,000 to 50,000.
However, last year, it shocked the market with the biggest downward correction in almost 10 years . There were many employment indicators released last week. Uh, the US non-farm employment figure was expected to be 72,000, but it came out at 22, meaning nearly 50,000 jobs were revised downward from the forecast .
So, the start of employment came out weak. And even in June, as employment figures came out in negative territory, uh, interest rates and the possibility rose significantly. The possibility of a 25bp rate was practically 100% confirmed, and the possibility of a 50bp rate even reached nearly 20% . As of Monday, we see an 88% probability of a 25bp rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting and a 12% probability of a 50bp rate hike .
As employment indicators are revised daily, depending on the results, if there is a significant downward revision, the probability of the 50% interest rate falling is currently 11%, but it could go up to over 50% . At the same time, expectations may arise that the FOMC will implement a big interest rate cut or significantly lower rates, just like last year .
On the other hand, if the job market is revised very strongly upward, there could even be talk of freezing interest rates. So, depending on how the results turn out, there could be quite a bit of volatility . This indicator is released on Tuesday at 11 PM KST. We will announce the results via live broadcast at that time .
So, while the revision of employment indicators tomorrow is important, the price index will be released again on Thursday. The core inflation index has now risen to the 3% range. It was 3.1 in July, but if it comes out to 3.2 or higher in August, the price index will rise again, and if the price index rises, it will become difficult to adjust interest rates .
There might even be talk of an economic recession again. For example, if the revised figures released on Tuesday come out as 800,000 or 1 million like last year, talk of stagflation and recession could arise again because the employment market is slowing down while the price index is rising . The price index is rising and the economy is slowing down, so we need to keep a close eye on how the price index turns out on Thursday.
Uh, a scenario where the market could rise is that if the price index comes out lower than expected and there is talk that inflation is under control, the market will be positive. Furthermore, if the employment market shows relatively strong or weak results, both could be favorable factors . If the job market is slowing down while the price index remains under control, there could be talk of a rate cut.
However, if the job market is showing slightly higher figures indicating a strong economy while the price index is under control, there is a possibility of a 25bp rate cut, which could lead to cheers from the market. Anyway, the revised non-employment benchmark on Tuesday could introduce volatility to the market, and the price index on Thursday could drive the macroeconomy.
And today's featured stock is Eco, the ticker Octo company, which rose by nearly 6,000%. Although it closed at 3,000%, this company is a packaging and container company, but it changed its strategy to become a World Coin financial company. At the same time, Den Ice, a famous analyst from Weed, was elected as the chairman of the board of directors of this company .
He is someone who frequently appears in the U.S. media and was mentioned several times when Tesla was undervalued, so he is quite popular among individual investors . So, Denais became the chairman of the board, and on top of that, Topligai, who was elected to the board of directors of Ethereum Finance Company's Dittmine, also invested 20 million dollars in the company .
Hey, Octo Company has a market capitalization of about 120 years, and at one point it went up to 200 million today . But among that, $20 million is reflected to some extent in the market capitalization . So, there was also a moment where I gave it a good scathing hit all at once like this . He is a very, very, very long figure among individual investors .
For reference, Denais and Tom seem to get along well. This is a photo taken 3 months ago . They even put their arms around each other's shoulders, so they look like they're close . Cog might have made the suggestion. Perhaps, having served on the board of directors of the Ethereum Treasury Company first, he mentioned the advantages to Ice and suggested that they work well together .
Anyway, with these two famous figures coming together, Eco's stock price went up by nearly 6,000% today . But it does n't stop there. As I mentioned regarding World Coin's financial company, this World Coin is a coin co-created by Samtman, the founder of OpenAI, who is arguably the most famous person in the world at this moment .
World Coin is said to utilize iris recognition technology, and looking at the company's vision, it aims to innovate the supply chain . Recently, there was a situation where Chainlink's stock price surged and pushed the cryptocurrency market after Howard Rutnick, Trump's second-in-command, announced that GDP statistics would be released on the blockchain.
Therefore, just as GDP statistics are made public on the blockchain, we will leverage the advantages of World Coin to innovate the supply chain. Vision also appealed to investors . So, all of these things combined were able to go up by as much as 6,000% . It is not easy for it to rise by 6,000% like this, but Samtman's altcoin has seen a truly unbelievable surge in price recently, as the Trump administration is pushing cryptocurrency, and famous figures like Bush and you have all come together .
And to introduce a few more featured stocks, Ecostar rose by as much as 20% and closed at an all-time high. It has been reported that Elon Musk 's SpaceX has acquired the company EchoStar for $17 billion, and that this includes the right to provide ground-based mobile phone and broadband services. So, telecommunications companies received adjustments today .
Mobile dropped by nearly 4%, and since this isn't a company that is usually this volatile, a 4% drop is really significant . Arizon also fell 2.4% and ATNT fell 2.3%. The mobile company also dropped significantly in the morning, but ended up at around -4%. So, the telecommunications sector declined as competitor SpaceX acquired Echostar, sparking competition among telecommunications companies .
And Flalabs is also in the space and defense sector. It is a satellite company, and this company has performed well . It rose nearly 50% during the trading session as both sales and outlook significantly exceeded expectations, but fell 14% in off-market trading due to a paid-in capital increase . And today, the companies that entered the SP 500 include Robinhood, AppleRobin, and other lesser-known companies.
As Robinhood entered the SP 500, it rose 16% and closed at an all-time high. Applelovin rose another 11% and closed at an all-time high . However, there was an expectation that microshares would also be included, but it dropped by about 2%. Since it has met the conditions for inclusion in the SP 500 this time, it seems we can check to see if it is included in the next S&P 500 inclusion announcement .
Now, an interesting article came out from the White House today . Uh, it is said that Finance Minister Scarfcent threatened Bilty, the Director of Housing Finance, saying, "I'm going to hit you in the face with a stick ." For your information, this Billie is the U.S. Federal Housing Commissioner. I am 37 years old.
And Treasurer Bascent is 62 years old. According to Politico reporter Rachel Bade, this happened on Wednesday evening . It was a dinner held at the ultra-luxurious Georgetown Club with Trump's aides and the world's wealthiest individuals. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, Secretary of Commerce Howard Rutnick , Secretary of the Interior Doug Balzheimer, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, CIA Director of National Intelligence Toshgead, and several other Trump aides were in attendance.
It is reported that during the cocktail party, Bessent fiercely criticized Paul with abusive language . It is said that he heard from President Trump that Paul had badmouthed the Treasury Secretary . So, Treasury Secretary Besent got angry and asked the President, " Why are you talking about me?" It is said that Besent told him, "Eat this, you fox," and threatened to punch him in the face .
In English, they say he said, "I'm going to punch you in the face ." It is said that one witness and four people who are well-versed in the case explained the scene to a reporter, and that they were guaranteed anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation. According to the three people, Iplety appeared to be in shock.
They must have been shocked . I don't think he can help but be shocked when Trump's right-hand man, who is 62, insults him . So, it is said that a man named Omid Malik, who hosted this cocktail party, intervened amidst the tense atmosphere. They say they tried to separate the two. However, Bascent did not tolerate it.
According to a witness, Honey tried to kick someone out of the cocktail party, and said that Bascent told Marley Host, "It's me, kid." Tell me who's going to get out of here. Or, when he said, "The two of us could go outside," I was surprised. So, I was trying to go outside to do something, something, something .
When I asked, "What are you going to talk about?" he replied, "It's not a few cents. I'm going to smack your ass ." In English, it's "I'm going to fing your s." So, Malik calmed the situation out of panic, separated the two, and at the extravagant dinner, Bascent sat at the far left and Poole at the far right, sitting at opposite ends, and the party reportedly proceeded without any further issues .
So, what this implies is that Federal Housing Commissioner Poole is aligning with the Trump and Margarita camps, gradually building credibility, and is now gaining favor. He is one of Trump's close aides who is most fiercely criticizing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, and he is practically the number one critic.
He is trying to oust these Fed governors, and if you look at X post, he is still making allegations against Lisa Cook even just an hour ago . But there is also a policy that Polti is trying to implement. There are various things, such as allowing Bitcoin to be used for mortgage loans or other housing-related policies.
However, if President Trump falls out of favor with his right-hand man, Ben Sent, his influence on President Trump could be much greater . There may be restrictions on the policies currently being pursued. And knowing these things is also fun. You can get a sense of why Minister of Wealth Bascent acted that way later on .
For reference, regarding this photo of the current administration, Treasury Secretary Besent is on Trump's right and Commerce Secretary Howard Rutnick is on his left; Besent is Trump's right-hand man, and Rutnick is Trump's left-hand man. You can see them as Trump's number one and number two. Anyway, to summarize this video, regarding the impact of the annual revision of the non-farm payrolls data released on Tuesdays on the market, if it is revised downward more than average like last year, the market impact could be significant.
On the other hand, even if forecasts are significantly revised upward, substantial adjustments may be necessary regarding the current macroeconomic situation . With that adjustment, stock prices can also be significantly affected . Not only the employment figures released on Tuesday, but also the price index released on Thursday can affect the market .
For example, if the headline price index is 2.7% but comes out in the 3% range, that could be bad news . On the other hand, if it comes out low, that can be good news. And I introduced you to the featured stocks . Well, Echo rose by 6,000% today, there are significant changes in the telecommunications sector as Space becomes Echo Star, and Robinhood, which entered the S&P 500, hit an all-time high.
However, MicroG failed to rise today despite Bitcoin's increase because it was not included in the S&P 500, causing its stock price to drop. The revised employment figures will be released at 11 PM on Tuesday, and we will provide a live broadcast at that time .
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