저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
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워런 버핏식 투자 마인드(인내·규율·기질)를 코카콜라 사례로 설명하는 영상으로, 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없다. 핵심 주장: 좋은 투자는 지능보다 기질과 인내가 중요하며, 군중과 반대로든 따라서든 흔들리지 않는 성격이 필요하다. 버핏의 코카콜라 사례: 7세 때 병뚜껑을 모아 콜라를 되팔았으나 주식은 50년 뒤인 1988~89년에야 대량 매수했다. 매수 시점 근거: 주가수익비율(PER) 약 10~15에서 매수했고 과거 평균 PER은 약 20으로 제시됨. 1980년대 중반 이후 PER이 낮아졌을 때 공격적으로 매집했고, 버크셔 자본의 약 21%가 코카콜라 주식이었다고 언급. 안전마진: 주가순자산비율(PBR) 약 5에 매수했지만 브랜드 가치는 약 1,000억 달러로 추정돼 시가총액 약 200억 달러 대비 안전마진이 크다고 설명. 성과: 1919년 상장 이후 주가 약 35~40배 상승, 배당수익률은 버핏의 매입단가 기준 약 50%로 언급. 1997~2010년 약 15년간 주가가 횡보한 사례도 인내의 예로 제시. 결론: 주식이 아닌 사업을 사고, 위대한 기업에 시간을 주며, 투자 포트폴리오 상당 부분을 집중하라는 메시지. 버핏의 애플·IBM 투자 및 실수 사례는 다음 영상에서 다룰 예정. 언급 종목: 코카콜라(장기 긍정, 방향 명시적 전망 없음). 출연자 전망은 장기 관점에 한정됨.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors a few days ago we discussed compounding as one of the most powerful forces when it comes to investing as would Buffet say just let the earnings the interest the dividends compound and you will do extremely well today I want to continue on this Buffet mindset investing mentality Buffet investing mindset by discussing patience and discipline and discussing the whole example of Buffett and his Ventures with Coca-Cola in a future video I'll discuss have already prepared 15 to 20 buffets mistakes so be sure to subscribe to get the whole complete buffets investing mindset series and watch that because it's all about mindset it's all about character right what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager it's a temperamental quality not an intellectual quality you don't need tons of IQ in this business I mean you have to have enough IQ to get from here to Downtown Omaha but uh but uh you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of the sort you need a stable personality you need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls it's a business where you think and Ben Graham would say that you're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you and you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you you're right because your facts and your reasoning are right now let's talk about this character by discussing the story of Buffett and Coca-Cola the story is very intriguing and interesting because the story of Buffett and Coca-Cola started when he was 7 years old but why I don't let Buffett tell the story again picture alaha in 1937 I was seven years old and uh uh no air conditioning so the Summers were hot and humid people uh went out on their lawns at night just to try and cool off and I got the idea that maybe I could sell them what you would call soft drinks and we called pop uh so I uh I went around to a bunch of gas stations and in those days every gas station had a cooler with varied soft drinks in it and it had a little opener on the side and something to catch all the bottle caps so I went around and collected all the bottle caps for weeks uh these various gas stations I collected 8,000 of them and then I sorted them all out and I saw that they were Coca-Cola overwhelmed everybody else uh so I decided to hook myself up to them there and there were these little silver like ones in those days and my grandfather had a grocery store so I went to my grandfather and I said uh how about giving me a deal on coke so I can sell it around the neighborhood and he sold me at the rate of six bottles for a quarter and I went around and sold him for a nickel each and I sold out every time and uh I had no inventory I had no receivables I had the best business I ever had but I made one mistake I didn't put the money I saved into Coca-Cola stock and but I I rectified that mistake some years later so that some years later is exactly 50 years later Buffett waited for 50 years to buy a company he always liked and why Buffett didn't buy earlier is a very important question but this the answer shows that discipline and the patience Buffet had to watch something for 50 years and not touch it but then buy big more about the story about Coca-Cola and everything else Buffett has been doing you can read in the snowball snowball Warren Buffett's biography autobiography almost so I urge every investor to read this book to get the right mentality when it comes to investing Buffett's life is in here so there is so much to learn let's continue with our story on Coca-Cola Buffet didn't buy Coca-Cola earlier but still the stock did very very well the stock went from an adjusted price of 5 cents in 1962 to a price of $1.2 again adjusted to the current price later when Buffett was buying and the the problem is that it was always a bit too expensive for Buffett Buffett bought at a moment that it was cheap for him because it seems that he's willing to buy a great business at a price earnings ratio of 10 with a forward price earnings ratio of 10ish 12ish the historical average price earnings ratio for Coca-Cola is 20 and you can see in this chart that for the majority when Buffett had his investment fund Partnerships the price earnings ratio was was highly above 20 even reaching 40 then mid 70s late 70s it dropped to 12 even to 10 but forget about the 1980s early 80s because inflation was very high buffet was buying great businesses at Price earnings ratio of five but then in 1987 the average price earnings ratio was already higher and suddenly Coca-Cola dropped to a price earnings ratio of 10 forward price earnings ratio of 10 I believe the price earnings ratio was 12 to to 15 at that moment and then Buffett started loading and bought big he bought so big that uh 21% of berkshire's capitalization was in Coca-Cola stock and he bought about 35% of his outstanding stock market portfolio during 1988 1987 8889 he made the deal with the Securities Exchange Commission that he doesn't have to report such buys because that would spike up the price and when he disclosed his buy the stock of Coca-Cola really exploded in 1989 what's also very important from value investing Buffet paid for Coca-Cola a Price to Book value of five which someone would someone would think it's huge but it was about the businesses about the business about the cash flows about the dividend about the future potential earnings and future potential growth and where did Buffett find that margin of safety was in the brand value there is rumors that he was reading some branding material and they said that to replicate what Coca-Cola had back then in the 1980s would take $100 billion Buffett was seeing okay the market value of capitalization of Coca-Cola is $20 billion and I'm buying something that has a brand value of $100 billion so there was his mark margin of safety the message here is that when you find a great business a business that you really want to own you put it on the watch list and when that business for whatever reason Falls at the level okay now I'm very happy to own that business then you buy a lot of that business because over the long term if you own a great business that's all you need when it comes to investing and Coca-Cola has been a very good business excellent business for very very long time since 1919 when it was it went public as the owners bought it for 25 million so just 25 million 100 years ago and then the rest is history how did Warren's investment work out well I would say pretty pretty well since then the stock the stock has increased what 35 40 times plus the the current dividend yield I think it's 50% from what Buffett is getting at the moment so giving the BuyBacks giving the everything he's getting a huge huge return on investment every year that he can redeploy wherever he finds fitting another example of patience the stock practically didn't go anywhere between 1997 and 2010 that's 15 years if you include the starting and uh ending years 15 years of nowhere do you have the patience to look for 15 years of nowhere and the message here is first don't judge Buffett on buying Apple buying IBM and that's something we'll discuss in probably next week a video discussing Buffett's mistakes don't judge on the fact where the stock goes he doesn't buy the stock he buys businesses and this is the crucial fact that many Miss and he buys great businesses and that is the key reason for his success so to conclude just invest in businesses give them time if they are great businesses to grow to do what they are supposed to do and you don't have to care about anything else for that matter and this is exactly what we focus on this channel having the right investing mindset to find great businesses and then when the time is appropriate to invest in those businesses invest a significant portion of our portfolio thank you for watching please pleas subscribe if you liked click like comment ask questions we are here to learn together and I'll see you in the next video
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