저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오의 주식시장 위험 경고는 장기 호황과 저금리 환경을 근거로 하며, 영상은 투자 위험을 먼저 관리하라고 권고한다. 달리오 실적 논쟁: 영상은 달리오 펀드가 최근 6년간 S&P500에 뒤처졌다는 비판을 제기한다. 다만 1991~2012년 순수 알파 연환산 수익률 약 16%, 이후 6년 약 5~6%를 합치면 장기 수익률은 S&P500과 비슷한 11% 수준이라고 본다. 사이클 관점: S&P500은 지난 10년간 3배 이상 올랐으나 저금리에 기댄 상승이었다. 달리오의 올웨더 전략은 4가지 경기 환경 모두에서 방어력을 목표로 하며, 주식이 횡보하던 15~30년 구간에서 성과가 두드러졌다고 설명한다. 시장 위험: 영상은 현재 시장을 '9회 말'(또는 8회 말)로 보고, 자산가격은 이미 비싸 상승 여지는 제한적이고 하락 위험은 크다고 평가한다. 금리 리스크: 2년물 국채 약 3%, 연준 추가 인상 가능성을 언급한다. 국채 배당수익률 4%가 주식 배당 2%보다 매력적이라는 논리로, 주식 기대수익률이 3%로 떨어지면 약 50% 하락 가능성이 있다고 주장한다. 주식 이익수익률 4.5%는 2~5년물 국채와의 차이가 1.5%p에 불과하다. 재정 리스크: 미국 정부 부채의 수급 불균형으로 금리 상승 압력이 커질 수 있으며, 연준이 이를 막지 못할 것이라는 주장이 제시된다. 행동 지침: 투자 목표와 생활 방식을 연결해 손실 영향을 점검하고, 여러 작은 버블이 꺼질 때 저가 매수를 기다리라고 권한다. 올웨더 포트폴리오 구성도 대안으로 언급되며, 영상 내 달리오 권고 금 비중은 8~10%다. 영상 채널의 결론 메시지는 '수익보다 위험 회피 우선'의 투자 접근법을 구독하라는 것이다.
다듬은 글
good eye fellow investors Ray Dalio recently came out with an interview for CNBC and then also at the Greenwich investors conference discussing the risk and reward of this stock market however he doesn't go into detail there and I really want to explain what he is saying but by covering the following topics really in debt ray de leus track record who the hell is Ray Dalio and why should we keep him in mind when thinking about investing risk and reward when it comes to investing interest rates the stock market is in the ninth inning what should an investor do so let's start with trade alias track record to see whether we should listen to him or not I made a comment also on Jeremy's channel who started this and who led me to the conference there how investors are not thinking that much about risk and he is asking me what about his big underperformance over the past six years just bad luck or bad strategy let's see investing is about risk and reward and investors should first focus on risk later on reward however if you look at the sp500 over the last ten years it more than tripled and nobody is even thinking about risk because when you see this one there is practically no risk it is a straight line up everything goes up and in the environment we have been living everything went up because interest rates went down and were at zero for a very very long time if you look at daily owes performance first tip ranks is a shitty performance track record or so forget about that nevertheless let's even assume this is correct ray Daly of 47 percent over the last six years the sp500 108 percent this is one but let me go a little bit back and take add a little bit more of cyclicality to this if we look at Ray de leus pure alpha performance look at this annual returns annualized returns 16% since 1991 till 2012 then add the six years at five six percent and we get to 11 percent which is in line with the SP 500 however over the past 30 years the sp500 went just up everything was positive it was a positive economic environment for stocks while the pure alpha strategy is designed to perform well in all four economic environments sp500 it goes up and down and we haven't yet seen the downturn that will come after this bull market however when that happens the alpha portfolio from Bridgewater will stay at least flat or even increase so that is where give it the cycle and then you see why Ray Dalio is managing 180 billion dollars because he is protecting those people's money and giving an return to it so the risk he firstly focuses on risk and then again risk and performing well in all four environments that nobody knows what will happen so the old weather is designed to perform well in each of these four environments and over the last 45 years we have had one with growth in economy growth in expectations everything good for stocks and interest rates going down and the all-weather portfolio performed equally to the sp500 however if we have one of the environments we have had in the past like 15 years of stocks going nowhere 30 years of stocks going nowhere then you will see how the old weather portfolio outperforms the 15 years their delay last 15 years where stocks went nowhere Ray Dalio made 16 percent annualized so that's the big difference so don't take when you measure performance please don't take one bull market that was rigged with lower interest rates as Ray Dalio says now in the conference he says that most of the investing environment is long equities and only in the next bear market we will see who is swimming naked to use Buffett's analogy so only in the next bear market we will see who is taking too much risk and who is protecting himself against the risks there that are always there the key is just whether the risks materialized sooner or later so that's important give it a cycle when measuring performance now when it comes to the current stock market risk and reward as I said and I will repeat it again investing is about risk and reward and investors should focus on risk and only later on reward first don't lose money second rule don't lose money further rule look at the first two rules as would Buffett say in this environment everybody thinks okay we are taking ten years five years historically everything was well and it will continue to go so you should be at least older than 35 to comprehend what was going on in 2002 2003 2008-2009 most of investors are seeing only this fear of missing out stocks will go up Trump is pushing stocks higher fiscal stimulus lower taxes on corporate interest rates everything is long equities even the economy is long equities as Ray Dalio would say it the world is leveraged long the bear market will be the separator between the winners and the losers when you put all that into the short term that long-term debt cycle and productivity we are in the eighth inning of the short-term debt cycle tax stimulation tightening assets are fully priced what does raelia mean when she says assets are fully priced it means that the upside is limited the downside is huge and that's something we have to explain now when we talk about interest rates because it's all relative and it's all priced into the curve I'll explain that in a moment so how strong is the economy the Fed is expected to increase raise they expected three times in 2019 another time in December so interest rates the two year Treasury is close to three percent now if the Fed raises another one percentage point over the next 14 months we are at 4 percent and then you have a problem the was 4% no risk from the government is much more attractive than a 2% dividend yield from stocks so if the dividend yield from stocks expected goes to 3% that's a 50% decline in stocks if there is a recession if earnings fall that's an even bigger decline in stocks so people should think about debt for example the current earnings yield on the sp500 is 4.5% that's just 1.5 percent above the 2 5 year Treasuries if the 2 5 year Treasuries go to 4% you should expect the risk premium on stocks of at least 3% then we are at an earnings yield of 7% keeping earnings equal and then you are already 40 40 percent down and that would hit the economy hit earnings and then you can easily go 60 70 percent down which is the risk of the market further there is a big discrepancy into the supply and demand for government debt if government debt if there is discrepancy in the demand and supply interest rates have to go higher and the US government has to borrow more and more and more to refinance its own that it has to borrow just to pay the interest rates which is usually called a pyramid scheme or a Ponzi scheme so that's a very very big issue that will come in the next decade and then you might see interest rates go even higher and the Fed will not be will not be able to do anything to prevent it because the government will need to fuel those huge huge deficits there are different expectations on the budget what the president assumes and what are the real expectations so this is all discounted in the curve the curve is not flat yet but add one percentage point on to that and then asset prices will be pressured to go lower lower and lower so what should an investor do see about the risk and reward related to your personal goals personal finance goals see about what can happen to your stocks and how would that effect your life that's it if your investments are separated from your lifestyle then simply wait by around the world by as those small bubbles as Ray Dalio says we are not in a big bubble we are in many many small bubbles as those small bubbles around the world pop by those when they are cheap and get significantly better investment returns with much less risk if you want to build an all-weather portfolio that's a lot of work but that's also something that might work and in the previous video about daihlia we said how he suggests between 8 and 10 percent of a portfolio exposure he probably means risk exposure to gold so thank you for watching if you like this first risk then reward approach to investing please subscribe to this channel because that's what we do here
Comments 0