저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 거시 관점은 미국 경기 사이클 후반부이며 금리 상승과 달러 리스크로 하락 위험에 대비해야 한다는 것이다. [거시 진단] 달리오는 미국 경기가 확장 국면에서 후기 사이클에 들어섰다고 보며, 역사상 가장 긴 확장 기간이라 종료가 임박했다고 주장한다. [금리와 자산] 미국 10년물 국채금리가 2014~2017년 1~2%에서 약 3%대로 크게 올랐고, 금리 상승은 주식·채권·부동산 등 금리 민감 자산 가격에 부담이다. [달러 리스크] 재정적자 확대로 달러가 취약해질 수 있다는 우려를 제기하며, 신흥국·해외 투자 다변화를 언급한다. [포트폴리오] 올웨더 포트폴리오 방식으로 주식·채권·금 등을 나눠 담고 주기적으로 리밸런싱할 것을 권한다. 금 비중은 약 7.5% 수준으로 제시되며, 금광주 관련 후속 영상을 예고한다. [경고] 개별 기업 분석도 중요하지만 거시 환경을 무시하면 안 되며, 시장 타이밍보다 리스크 관리가 핵심이라는 점을 강조한다. [출연자 전망] 채널 진행자 Sven Carlin은 기업 본질 중심 가치투자 관점에서 거시 리스크 대비를 보조적으로 언급한다.
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devalued rest and well office the stock market news with the long time fundamental state the stopmarker have pretty boy style basket and downs seven pounds 20% for October which is one of the first months in history and this shows what can help to stox has discontinued for another five man of the stock market will be done for tea for the percent and that and big deal in this big deal and warm and to win this big decline and higher volatility in the stock market the person to go to is re theological hedge fund manager the spirit bridgewater it spans the 3 courses ride trillion or assets other management yes fly on ruth billion and you not admit list and billy one or five trillion in world to come into butt the race and admit you give money in this catches so evod there no no playing sharing his knowledge about investing and all the principles and his books and under textbook he has me the summary in this video i robot in the card so how there now can I the touch tomato and the book and the summerlee and the know that were going to station is reduced in the scripture him in the long interview that he is not a founder see this for an Indian new provider so the difference between India and America in India they just let region ten CG Sphinx and that's where I gathered a lot of information and am going to summarize the interview for user dan caps to take 15 minutes and then comes to add a little bit of charge and having to add to the description of will there be a Demio is a and how we should be position and in this part of the economy and market fico this is the content where we now in the fico will there be much pain coming china' is it in trouble investors and macro-economic Chablis focus just and the micro or or something counter the macro asset allocation well investing in and major markets well 2019 2020 do you think for the US economy what to do well come pertotal his oath and then radios best investment' idea well ehh gender totally his ethics Seletti resources start know who you now the focus mondeo is to differentiate between the land and cycle and the species and feico who shrimp in the species recycle long you here in the expansion so the us economy plaster cast leg expanding for my here switches monastery the lungs sex pension period in history so this is bound to come to an end to your other the late there for the rest at private eye care sensitive to interest rates compass rose trait some very lo and the change' not rest already in queens the sensitivity of asset speaks prices and in the list here do you here switch option nephew jump-in interest rate and treasury you so the fabio treasury government bond that you that between one and two percent of 2014 2017 well salience free percent so that is an increase of gays the one 100% from the average of the free starting here's why 100% in greece in interest rate macs dood much more attractive to investors and therefore it increases the gravity and after prices and this is something to keep in mind or something central bank would tightening is with a higher interest rate or something of the fact which spread out to hire mortgage rate higher reaches its own car loans and body see if that there treasury held so or south central banks are tightening how you no singles that workflow student on the kind there cycle shorter economy cycle which usually lied in tourist so irrational already pointing out be careful to the nineteen to twenty there might be your assesse now in the long john part of the cycle sanitizing of extreme import and the course i chose wat kan have a next Libya my profession or something bigger well another country and that cycle interest straight up close to zero in reserve my signora and us dollar so this is a position became there is not much more to expand the fog have downturn door is wet and icon monetary power and I have him in the case in 2001 look and rangers enters in 2000 ethics becomes it 5% and then it was a robards to say that was very very stimulating well most participants and very louis in just reeds oh my loving you just reeds you why not helping them out and it was the case in the pest forty five years of declining interest rates so radios s that we there in that period like mike in forty server where interest rates cabin for long time at the road to stimuli that economy and populism is rising because there is an increasing gap between the rich and the poor, you know that the reach goes treachery in the list way the farmer always so one in Vledder meat and what understand paint in meat and the farmers god poor and all those discrepancy sorority showing up for example in Italy where there is a populist party and him on the country now and this is indeed Delius knew earlier in the lamp of part of the cycle and compares to nine tent to imagine that then received gradual and within that militari were like it was before world war two bad the rit arm increasing and let the fingers can help or something in developing countries further another country and that cycle this is the fed that of the United States of America look at how it's packed up sooner or later there must be delivered think there will be this beautiful die livergy covered it also has been a little bit more pain for those who give the reach and a little bit less than for those who don't have the gate is it is a future for the lover sinking under question whether there will be much more pain radios were diplomatic coach certified cammermans monetary policy see it you have to you will never happened what has once win and header becomes might be going home d do you know my voice via and on the cycle and prevent a lot of an intelligent great depression in the night in for this because nobody the this nothing less fr economy economy will help it itself and then from nineteen quinty nine to nine can for the frieda was a lot of pain and deelder was interface intervention in 2001 interface intervention with flo what this game tracks him to 1000 and eleven 12 and so that if the food was just financial at not tonight show grice is as thick as a something to keep in mind what the powers that ar in place to money the economy or prevent an extra fashion a weaker than 2000 eat or logical is that wych-iep the focus on whether a country or something s13 something to the nominated come and see or in one by one the nominates it come and see if you're in for in who nominates it comments every risk is much more and the opportunity to balance there is much lower because you're not controlling the for incarnation view cover the manure incarnation levy is much easier and delivery see can also be much easier and geo process that china' is of course how it later that what most of the betty see most collins i which enables try not to balance that out and to manage the dead and they're doing that were very proactively in their up and down cycles the interviews give good question to daily asking about weather and investors should focus on the to the mycroft like at investors my badge and western just focus of the microphone get about the micro because it's not predictable and 3d us that she doesn't agree incidence the common sense in two picos that are macro effect the micro and therefore you cannot just by business and let it there because a lot of de douwe industrials that gave one in place for 10 years ago arnoud and and man the tab now so late on changes and you had to test the cycle carletti of your business for so long back to value a western and just focus of the business to go by henk yes what focus on the business or by nancy keep mac impacts adapt business that is key that is also the reason why so much discussion about economics and what is going on in the world and this channel because you need to know what is going on in the world to see how our business is our micro focus will be effected, he would completely agree with delio yes focus of the micro find a great business is but also see how those great business is wanted effected by the micro and radio de corcoran's as very careful about not timing the market it's not about time in the market something about decision der is cru word in relation to the micro and the micro zo everbody agree with you can no time the market of kind wide elios s zo discover site you don't have to look at the micro picture but if the risks are increasing and you're looking at the business which 13 more expensive in the leading part of the economy cycle then you look at the micro sdhc okay this is higher risk in west my this is the lower is investment' of that perspective your creating the michael picture by looking at what's going on in the economy and when you're in the late part of the economic cycle juno that the knew or increasing that the message similarly slowly cycle this wants there i worked there will be delivered ring and aylan to be prepared for one ever it happens in the next and twenty years so that's why we counter the micro and all other business is the signing are is either this or this dead bobbleheads bingoing for the list let's say for the five years since intro strange and bingo in oil downline kinetic to is the cruiser vocal here the focus here so let businesses have risen with the tied be careful not to be invested in in westend in those that will be swimming naked winter tight thorns and the this bubble purse or getting too beautiful the level reaching an effort to work in west well that interview is real and interviewer 16 million euros and cheb bilal look what is big o there is til the room in the cycle and manslaughter app download now i think that belang app which is not get smart because there is not that much room in the cycle and that's where import and that conversation to be don't be over know what is ngc god god god 5 to 10% of your portfolio in god so that the toe vinckx or will see later what is kees strategy wind can support fortress but two noan [ __ ] then at over know decorative and secondly pencil to bones gs1 that pansar promises to deliver car and see some in summer in the future and then said that the dollar is there there is kate picos on the that we give inside mentioning witch and do I through the fiscal policies the will be not for more and more and more that to repay the previous day and the other fiscal publications medicare and whatever and the disco budget deficit so the dollar is risk to fly dement or on that that which means the dollar is whisky europe at is already a problem so vague and the us with key the yannis risky china' as if he sits discover bubble in such a car nancy so give his white cabbage and game is the diversification him play that goal is the fixed car and say to fetch page and dump him happens in the other high there is that knowledge is from long time that perspective would keep that in mind on a question about emerging markets and content and region 3-part the far far specifically answer g6 that in western biggest mistake is that wishes on prize ghost town investors tick the that this but rather than thinking that this s it is getting keeper so this is on a thinking and gsm that we should think when something going down like emerging markets dit go down lately and in 2015 that this is the gutschein because those doxology person week and increase our exposure in 2017 win a major markets for expats has this was the time to decrease the exposure by a total such a system and I ran grace in 2014 careful portfolio rebalancing is all what reed daily is built for the us for the 20 man 10 clients 20 6 that the interest rates and getting higher the vet is tightening which means that that were pulled economy downlight gravity that place in the lamp then cycle this model might be also trouble from the new to borrow more and more dollars wood chips in western countries red don't like that anymore and cider with knowledge of the dollar can lead to big problems in relation to the risk of the comments i the dollar something itself so for that is warning has about increased risk of the US economy twenty-nine 10 2020 and now what to do this message is private becomes the plague in west me now for 2009 in 2020 is liberty vacation and then all weather portfolio so that you can be carefully balance portfolio a monk assets that there or will do well in relation to each other so dirty be on commons is go down go will be the asset to glance wet so cool the tem percent of your portfolio in red becomes the my car a cubic white and looking it also the goldmine er set this is me that tf of the junior and all the major miner so that they let for car will look at probiblio trailer the minors and den ri in die telen and mee kan in die taal and ms is of the miners the bee find best do will my portfolio and how we look at my younger than just to get and exhibits by builds percent to and percent of my portfolio and then carefully rebalance 13 relation to what happens to major markets developed markets at tetra so if you want to see more about goldfinches mode goldminer switches different investment' than just go to the portfolio but if you care for more leverage that's nice hedging you might want to watch tomorrow's video where time this cause the top tent potions of the am I ipf goldmine in eps and well dig into the miners show see what is the there is there the passion websites and downside knew and he becomes so more but that tomorrow what the finish with elias message be the first to fight across all weather portfolio's is a the that retake good quality logical bond dubarry well in a bar moment furthermore there is recession and so good quality loris cosmic the death message about the jew but those filzmoos maiko lower end and the counter of those spons go higher so that his other methods the 3d biogas inside sharing with something a bit of peace is here and their eyes were limit 5 video sunday do check them out and the east by looking at becomes no white bit of time while i think you and there you will be able to create and know whether portfolio for those who are interested in such i know whether portfolio thank you for watching plese subscribe the least had then i am looking forward to comments and really love reading them and join them interacting with you and i'll see you tomorrow in the video built top-down god minors in the world
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