저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 매출 성장은 빠르지만 4년간 누적 약 38억 달러 순손실을 내는 구조라 엘론 머스크의 생산 목표 미달이 반복되며, 공정가치는 주당 32.5달러로 현재가(약 300달러)보다 크게 낮다고 본다. 사업 모델: 테슬라는 제품을 원가 이하로 팔아 매출을 키우지만 전 제품이 적자이며, 2014~2018 기간 약 26억 달러 매출 대비 약 29.8억 달러 비용으로 손실이 발생했다고 설명한다. 목표 미달: 블룸버그 집계 54개 프로젝트 중 20개만 완료, 16개는 지연. 2016년 발표한 연 50만 대 생산 목표도 2018년 달성 어렵다고 본다. 경쟁과 밸류에이션: 전통 완성차(다임러 등)도 전기차에 투자하고 있어 테슬라 마진은 일반 완성차 수준으로 수렴할 것. 다임러 PER 6, PBR 0.93 등 저평가 수준과 비교. 2020년 100만 대 목표 달성 가정 시 주가 130달러, 50% 차감·추가 증자 희석 반영 시 32.5달러 제시. 경기 리스크: 경기 사이클 후반에 진입해 고가 차량 수요가 줄고 리세션 시 자동차 기업이 타격을 받을 수 있다고 봄. 공매도 및 옵션: 현재 옵션 비용이 비싸 숏 포지션은 비효율적이며, 2021년 등가 풋 가격이 주가의 약 40%에 달한다고 지적. 아마존 풋도 테슬라보다 저렴하다고 비교. 투자 방식: 전기차 트렌드 투자는 완성차 직접 매수보다 '곡괭이와 삽'(니켈, 구리 등 원자재) 간접 투자가 낫다고 제안. 결론: 테슬라는 과대평가되어 있어 매수는 위험하며, 비싼 숏보다 관망하는 편이 낫다. 영상 말미에 페이스북 분석 예고.
다듬은 글
good eye fellow investors Tesla was one of the stocks that you required me to analyze in the 20k subscribers video you can find all the other stocks that we have analyzed from the list in the description below the links so Tesla is a very intriguing stock but there are free ways to approach investing in Tesla you can trade on the tweets you can be a very very long-term investor in Tesla looking at a long term going to Mars picture and you can be short Tesla however on trading on the tweets that's really something crazy as you can see the volatility with Tesla is crazy 13% down last week the next day 70% up as all what's going on with Elon Musk evolves so that's really something crazy something very difficult to grasp expensive to do and that's something I'm not going to touch on I'm going to touch on the long term investment and on the short thesis and then put that into perspective to see what is possible to do how to invest and how to get how to put Tesla as your portfolio exposure how much Tesla should you own these are the topics we're going to go through Tesla's business model how masks promises always hit reality at some point the competition Tesla stock valuation in my short Tesla or long Tesla we're going to look at the option chain to see what are the prices of being long and short how do I invest in the electric vehicle trend and then whether we are going to cover Tesla on this channel or not we are covering Facebook and then there will be an update on that in two days so let's start by discussing Tesla's business model Tesla business model is a very effective model to grow revenue fast let me explain what I mean if I would want to grow revenues fast let's say I buy Apple phones for 999 dollars and then packaged all the same I sell those phones for $852 I bet you my revenues would grow extremely fast and that's exactly what Tesla has been doing since like ever if we look at the financials over the last four years the sum of the revenues is 26 billion the sum of the expenses is twenty nine point eight billion which means the Tesla sold yes a lot of cars but at a net loss of almost four billion which is the difference between my iPhone sales the point is that Tesla is producing yes but everything the Tesla does is at a loss and many think it will turn in the future there will be a profit but I think the main reason for those losses are Elon Musk's illusionary efficiency production expectations he thinks that everything will go smoothly whatever he plans whatever his ideas are but whenever you do something whatever changing about that's going to take a lot more time than you have initially planed and it's going to be more costly so that's something Elon Musk doesn't see doesn't understand and he promises efficiency he is capable of getting huge capital amount on that efficiency but unfortunately it doesn't deliver when it hits reality so from Bloomberg Tesla's goals they tracked 54 projects 20 of those were completed and 16 of 54 were late the latest project was the 500000 yearly production in 2018 which was announced in 2016 just to raise more capital in 2016 of course they will not hit that very unlikely so that's another missed promise other recent projects are all mostly running late hence free trip across America 9 months Tesla Network nine months two to four new Giga factories nine months 350 mobile service vans nine months supercharger network across Canada nine months late model free production 2,500 a week okay this is a little bit older data but then it was still six months late first 100,000 model freedom was nine months late model of free all-wheel drive was again nine months late solar roof tile in Tuscan slate free months late model free production of five thousand a week was nine months late 45k basic of configuration of the model free ten months late add one hundred new service centers free months late of course this is the best obviously but let's look at the future will Ellen mask deliver on his promises or not gigafactory reached full production target 2018 a tripling of superchargers target 2018 model free production of ten thousand a week target 2018 revised now it's uncertain pickup truck and Wheeling mid 2019 I'm sure he will unveil that correctly because that will be needed for more capital raises autonomous cars are capable of letting drivers sleep okay 2019 target will see Tesla semi scale production he will put up manually some items for sure model while launch yes for capital needs for sure Solar Giga factory produces one gigawatt annually will see 1 million cars a year target 2020 will see Tesla valued at 700 billion in 2025 yes for sure etc etc now on one hand we have promises and on the other hand we have reality Tesla is a car company every other car company is talking about autonomous drive digitalization whatever just look at BMW or the mercedes everything what they are doing Toyota same as Tesla so at the end Tesla will be is a car company and if if they deliver on their promises we can expect their margins to be in line with everybody else's margins in line with a car company further Tesla will require huge amounts of capital to reach the production the the production scale the everything that other car manufacturers already have which means a delusion to oblivion for current shareholders another concern I have for Tesla is that we are in the late part of the economic cycle and buying a Tesla as a car now it's pretty cool especially if you lease it on a company car or something like that but late part of it I cannot on an economic cycle followed by a recession when demand for such cars really dries up especially for the luxurious higher range cars and then really car companies hit a wall don't you ever wonder why all other car companies have extremely low valuations because of the risk of the next recession let's take a look at Daimler price to sales 0.45 forward dividend yield 7% car manufacture 7% dividend yield price earnings ratio 6 market capitalization 67 billion just a bit above Tesla price-to-book 0.93 on a market cap of 67 billion and the funny thing is the diner is preparing to compete with Tesla by investing 10 billion euros in electric vehicles they will have 140 electrical alternatives by 2022 and also range of completely electrified vehicles by 2022 now why didn't establish car manufacturers compete with Tesla before why didn't they start making those electric cars sooner because they went waited for confirmation that the market is ready for electric cars they didn't want to invest billions into losses like Tesla did before they got sure that the market is there and now they are ramping up production and now they will deliver when the demand is there many companies have tried in the past to launch an electric car vehicle but the market wasn't simply ready like it wasn't ready when Tesla launched now with the improved technology it is getting ready the economical electric vehicle already there in 1914 so electric vehicles are not something revolutionary it's just that the technology allowed them to be competing 1990s there were other attempts Reva GM had also eveyone or something so not a lot of range not a lot of quality so it didn't gain traction so let's put all of this into numbers let's value 8 Tesla as a stock let's say the Tesla hits there 1 million vehicle target in 2020 that is 40% of what Daimler is doing now as they have both cars Tesla semi luxury trucks buses whatever let's assume proportional revenues and earnings 30% of 164 billion euros or 190 billion dollars is 57 billion of revenue in 2020 for Tesla with the same net profit margin of 6.6 percent Tesla's profits in 2020 would be 3.7 billion a touch of valuation of 6 to that like Daimler has now and you get to a 2020 market capitalization of 22 billion that would give you a stock price of 130 in 2020 for Tesla so 130 stock price to Tesla's plans okay that's a good stock price with Tesla and I think 22 billion market cap is good however that's if Elon Musk reaches all his targets efficiently smoothly that will never happen so let's take a 50% cut on death because of inefficiencies so from 1:30 we are down to 65 as a stock price or better to say 11 billion market capitalization and then for the stock price he will need a lot of capital to finance all his projects as his production is not profitable he cannot do it sustainably finance himself from cash let's expect another 10 billion of investment in the form of capital like diner is investing and like everybody else is investing in the electric vehicle trend so that's on an 11 billion market cap that's a dilution of another 100 percent so my favor your stock price for Tesla ends up at thirty two point five so thirty two point five is my fair value for Tesla everything else our fairytales for the snowflake generation I'm sorry to say that but that's how it is now you would wonder am i short Tesla well not because one thing is finding an overvalued stock one another thing is shorting it because the shorts are usually expensive as we have seen in the Tesla stock price charts the volatility is extremely high so if you really want to go short you want to know the direction you want to be right on the timing the best way is always to buy a long-term put but if I look at those long-term puts in an option chain those are extremely expensive which tells you what the market thinks about the risk of Tesla's stock if I look at Tesla's option chain for the 2021 near the money put it costs ninety four dollars fifty that's about 40% of the current stock price to go short so if let's say Tesla stock drops to one hundred and twenty twenty three and I buy that put again in 2021 I would not even break even on the cost when you add the cost of my money so extremely expensive to go short Tesla in a normal way just to compare how risky Tesla is even Amazon's on a very extreme valuation Amazon's put option costs fourteen percent of the stock price for the same strike date does half of Tesla's put option price so two too expensive too short Tesla too expensive to buy long too risky better leave it aside but this is just my opinion this is how I see the world of investing you might like it you might not like it but I'm sure that those who believe in fairytales the mumbo jumbo Elon Musk Lollapalooza please bring on the heat and now to more serious things how do I invest in the e V Trent because I think the electrical vehicle trend will be massive in the future but there are different options to invest in Anam and more picks and shovel guy let me explain in the gold rushes in the 1800 some miner would make money some would lose some would drink it all but the most efficient most productive best return on capital was the guy that was selling the picks and shovels to mine he was making the money no risk low risk extremely high return investment in such an environment so I prefer to invest in those things so I prefer in the Picts and shallow investments the physics are clear the Newton laws are clear you need know what you need for the industry to boom and one way to cheaply get exposure to the industry now still is of course nickel and later in playing with the cycle and commodities copper but that's some other story not for this video can check more on my stock market research platform before ending I'm not going to cover Tesla on this channel because my price is 42.5 the difference between 32.5 and the current price of 300 is sentiment related to even masks aura so that's something I'm not capable of analyzing just speculation so no point to cover this stock however an update on the stock we are going to cover Facebook will be coming on first day so I'll see you tomorrow in another video talking about also some crazy stocks but with price earnings ratio of 2 to 7 which is the Chinese real estate market so I'll see you tomorrow and then the day up day after with Facebook hope you enjoyed this video like it dislike it if you hate the idea please dislike it and comment share your insights and I'll see of course in the next video you
Comments 0