저자: Paul · 외국인
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테슬라는 자동차 회사로서 P/S 0.5 수준이 적정하며, 현재 시가총액(P/S 약 7배)은 과도하다고 주장. 매출 성장률·마진 가정에 따른 DCF 시뮬레이션 결과 중간 시나리오에서도 현 주가 정당화가 어렵다고 결론. 콘텐츠 자체는 기업 가치 평가 교육 목적.
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maybe they're revolutionizing the car industry though that's like Michael Jordan loving going to a fifth grade basketball game and swatting balls right and left love it love it love it love it love it and I hope that's the way every car company does it why do they not want to be a car company I don't get it Welcome to The Bash Tesla evaluation show I'm your host Paul this is Moe we're going to talk about Tesla and how it's not justifiable its current valuation spoiler alert to everybody who's coming on here to learn something you were to learn how to value a company and how to be reasonable about your valuation and assumptions now at the end of this video you finish it with God this guy doesn't understand innovation in Tesla I want you to do me a favor I want you to flush your money down the toilet because you are stupid with that said let's proceed on talk about Tesla all right so guys let's talk about the uh the tech company the software business that's known as Tesla hey Mom what percentage of their some Revenue comes from Cars I think it's I could argue that they're a roofing company too I know exactly I think this could anyways all-time high why do they not want to be a car company I don't get it because car companies have a bad valuation well the price of sales ratio on a software businesses six to nine on a car business is 0.5 very big difference I love it let's look at their their uh their gross profit margin okay 23 not bad bottom line pretty solid guys still not software business software business profit margins are 50 to 80 percent gross margin here twenty three percent so this is gonna um be awesome maybe they're revolutionizing the car industry though they are by the way I do believe the revolution of the car industry I think we're going to have Ford has already said they want to make their business model essentially with Tesla's model business model will move towards that's revolution in the car industry I do think that's the case it's not revolutionize the entire industry just the buying I think the I think that's a huge part of it though I love the part of it though I was actually just talking about the part Dennis this morning we're talking about cars and she was like hey what are you looking at and I'm just like so she went to the Porsche dealership and she got a Porsche the dental hygienist and she's getting a Porsche yeah anyways she uh they were trying to charge her nine percent above MSRP after the car came in she ordered it it came in they were like Hey we're gonna add on nine percent what'd she say she said no they went into this big battle and she ended up getting it at them what poor stealership um the one that you bought your car from actually that's pretty shady yeah that's pretty shady okay so anyways I do think that Tesla has revolutionized the car industry Ford's moving in that direction Jim Farley yes in multiple ways they've done the electric vehicles they've been the leader of that one I think they've really driven the future of electric vehicles there's no denying that I think the whole idea of this is the price effing pay it love it love it love it love it love it love it and I hope that's the way every car company does it I remember 25 years ago my dad was buying a Range Rover at that time they said something like yeah we're not negotiating price and I was like that's so great that's so great now for those who get your jellies off negotiating a cardio ship I'm going to tell you right now that probably means you're not a good business person or investor because that's like Michael Jordan loving going to a fifth grade basketball game and swatting balls right and left that's what that is every single thing in this room we're sitting in right here we paid for because the company said this is what it cost and we just paid for it yep everything in the world should be that way except for maybe houses that's it I really wish houses were the same way I do too but they could dynamically ship but cars ain't shifting if it costs 80 000 to build it there's your price maybe a little bit more for get your margins that's it all right I don't understand it return invested Capital last year was pretty solid 15.2 percent all-time high in Tesla's 414.50 in November of 2021 so let's go take a look real quick guys for those of you who don't believe that um stocks can fall even though their numbers look better here is the quarter ending November 2021.
they did 17.7 billion dollars they're now doing 23. MO is 23 greater than 17.7 I think it is how much greater is it I don't want to bring your brain it's roughly 30 better thank you but why is this stock going from 414 down to 101 back up to 186 right now disruption so what MO is trying to say is stocks are a voting machine in the short run and a weigh's fundamentally behind Tesla that's what's going to drive the long-term value but you got to pay a reasonable price for Tesla today if you believe that anything great should be great and you focus on the story no numbers what you're essentially saying is there is no price too high and you might sit there and look at me now and say no that's not the case yes you are you have two options you can go lose tons of money thinking the way you're currently thinking or think like an investor and lose a lot less money unless we're going to save money I'm just looking at their revenue on a year-to-year basis it's incredible incredible growth isn't it incredible growth and stock price not following suit so 2021 they did 53.8 last year 81.5 this is when the end of the year 53.8 billion how much more revenue is this 28 billion on that is 55 roughly and their stock price is down in half more than half more than half so go figure that out no that could mean and it went to 100 101 at that point so it was down over 75 at one point now you could say man Tesla's a buy and it could be it very well could be but the question is what it has to sell for let's start from the very beginning if the average car company Ford Honda all these things sell for between 0.5 and 1 times Revenue let's assume Tesla is going to have this big premium and what's called 1.5 times Revenue okay right now it's at seven times Revenue so it's got to fall 80 from this level just to hit 1.5 assuming they don't grow a lot in the next few years now our good friend Kathy Wood thinks Tesla's bear case is 1400 a share how many times more is that right now well what's the current price 187 yeah so what is that like seven and a half times maybe let's call it seven times that's by 2025.
2027 2027 maybe 25. I can't remember look it up but that's her bear case which means her low low case so in order to get that guys and if Tesla at fourteen hundred dollars that's seven times more the current market cap 27. the current market cap is 591 billion call it 600 billion times seven is four point two trillion dollars okay so if the stock price hit 1400 share if they have a 4.2 trillion dollar market cap now based on that and based on them getting let's say the normal car company of 0.75 times sales what's 4.2 divided by 0.75 that would be divided by three there is 14.
5.6 trillion dollars in sales to justify that value them like a normal car company 5.6 trillion dollars in sales for those who don't know GM GM and Amazon do 500 billion in sales nine percent of this 1 11th of this and she's saying it's gonna happen by 2027. but of course I'm a curmudgeon and I'm saying that let's say that their price of sales stays at seven all right so 4.2 trillion dollars divided by seven is 600 billion okay a lot more reasonable um but they're doing 81 billion right now and what year was going to happen 2027 by the end of 27.
so 24 25 26 27 four and a half years so let me do some quick math for you 600 divided by 81. it has to grow 7.4 times the next 4.5 years to the power of 1 divided by 4.5 is a growth rate of 56 per year yeah they need to grow their growth rate by 56 a year to hit their lowest bear case according to Kathy Wood go ahead Mo that was a 600 billion dollar company gonna do that well let's look at analysts and see what they're saying okay analysts are calling for analysts who are very very very Rosy look at that the highest is 28 yeah the lowest is 17 in the next five years 230 billion dollars in revenue for the cheerleaders of the stock the cheerleaders of the stocks who tend to be wrong on the bad side are not even giving Tesla that kind of growth and Kathy Woods saying that's her base case her lowest level guys every investment's a present value of all future cash flow we're going to go in here and we're going to ds going to tell us based on our assumptions about the future the price range for Tesla given those assumptions mo one thing I want you to do is let's do four years um yeah do five years give her a little give it a little bit five and what we're going to do here is before the end after we show our current numbers stick with us because we're going to show you what would have to happen to the company what they could do in order to justify today's price forget about Kathy Woods 1400 bet today's price so please hold on a second what are you coming to me so guys I did a 20-year analysis 2-0 in our software you can do one to twenty years and by the way if you want our software with all the tools including the stock analyzer tool and the community one dollar per day go to everythingmoney.com one dollar per day it's going to be a better investment than Arc Investments and Tesla but I have made assumptions here and I'm going to show you these assumptions I'm going to make the screen a little bit bigger Revenue growth levels 10 15 and 20 just to show you how much 20 is for 20 years 1.2 to the power of 20 times 81 billion would take them to 3.1 trillion in Revenue 3.1 trillion in Revenue in the next how many years 20 years 3.1 trillion yeah okay possible is it probable I don't know I don't think so but it's possible let's stay there let's do it this way if their average car 20 years from now is 120 thousand dollars because the average car right now is like 45 or 48.
I think it's 45. they have to sell 26 million cars a year in 2020. well keep in mind guys in the US there are like 50 how many cars are sold every year that's new in the US like 15 million yeah I think it's like 14 or 15 million yeah called 20. so they got to basically be bigger than the entire new car market today in the US but that'll grow probably over time okay now profit margin I did 8 14 and 20.
the this is a little bit lower than a software business so I'm assuming their software is correct they're gonna start making tons of software at a really high margin I match the free cash flow PE now you're gonna argue with me on PE guys if you base your PE like that idiot meet Kevin based on the current PE he said 70 was a deal it's at 50 right now that's when it was at 200 or something like that he said 70 was the deal I put 17 20 and 23 which I still think is high because for the largest company in the world which will probably be at that point to hit that that's a really high multiple and for my returns I put 12 15 and 18 because the more the higher my assumptions the bigger return I need for my margin of safety Mo what'd you do for your five-year analysis so Revenue growth I did 15 20 and 25.
okay profit margin 5 9 and 13. okay free cash flow margin a little lower two actually a lot lower two five and eight p e 20 23 26 same numbers for price to free cash flow and my return of 11 13 and 15. ready to show my numbers yep oh 15 to 36 91 to 150 45 to 82. well here's how stupid you are mine the low price of 56 a high price of 280 middle price of 140.
so guys what this says is if you believe my highest assumptions you can buy the stock today at 280 and still make an 18 return so at 187 imagine how well you're gonna do imagine how well you're gonna do now for me to get green in my middle section oh boy Mo what are you getting here today I'm putting in Revenue growth of 40 for the next five years on my high side leaving everything the same you know let's drop this to ten let's see how good it gets there you go there you go it's barely on the just kind of cash flow in the positive fairly barely guys I know what to tell you yes I'm a jerk but go look at all our videos in the past and everybody said I didn't get it I didn't get it I didn't get it now the only criticisms of me is are Paul you're buying these Stacks they're going down yeah I know and I'm gonna keep buying Babas and all that stuff I avoided the 90 95 100 collapses I'm fine with that and guess what the ones people have to pay attention to my stuff pay attention to my stuff and I'm gonna be very happy as stocks fall that's the difference between me and everybody else I am ecstatic when stocks fall I was trying to do options today I'm like how boring stocks are off this sucks thank you very much guys everythingmoney.com one dollar a day for seven days try it out
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