저자: Mo—출연자소속은제목·설명에서확인불가하여채널명기준 · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적이 예상치를 상회(EPS 1.09 vs 0.92, 매출 71억 vs 65억 달러)했고 2분기 가이던스 110억 달러가 제시됨. 시간외 주가 338달러로 급등, 사상 최고가 근접. 다만 현재 PER 180배, 5년 후 예상 PER 147배로 고평가 상태라 발표자는 장기 현금흐름 대비 주가가 과도하다고 봄. DCF 모델상 고성장 가정에서도 20년간 연 22~25% 매출 성장이 필요하다고 분석. 발표자는 옵션으로 하락 베팅(숏) 포지션을 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
all right guys Nvidia just reported if you can't tell right here from this number they did very well they were expected to make 92 cents per share and they reported a dollar nine and they're expected to have revenue of 6.5 billion they reported 7.1 now keep in mind both those numbers are still down from last year's same quarter but they still crushed Nvidia has been on a tear 52-week low of 108 just seven months ago it's back up to 338 aftermarket after the surge guys in full disclosure I have shorts in a video I'm getting crushed right now I haven't looked at what it is but I'm getting crushed um nvidia's all-time high is 346 and it's coming close to that and that was in November of 2021 listen we don't really care much about reported earnings in the sense of making or breaking our thesis the thesis is what it is if you look back at history on companies they don't always beat and that's okay because we still want to buy good companies at good prices and sometimes they beat and sometimes they don't but as long as in the long run they hit the metrics in which we have assumed we can make a lot of money right Moe's looking at their press release their press release um quarterly Revenue up 19 from the previous quarter not the previous year same quarter though year over year their revenue um was still down because if we look at this let's go to the income statement in our software let's go to quarterly and that would be 8.29 was the same quarter last year and they just reported 7.19 and EPS last year was um a dollar twelve I don't know that's right um but either way Nvidia crushed it everyone loves Nvidia they're now up to an all-time high oh they hit it they hit the all-time high guys is it possible I said of course it's possible they just hit an all-time high guys all-time high you just while we were wondering if while we're recording this video all time high videos outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 is revenue expected of 11 billion dollars holy cow yeah that's insane wow that's insane wow wow wow which is what almost well 6.7 yeah that's crazy it's crazy they just did 7.19 wow Wow first quarter Revenue was a for data center okay so let's take a look at this company are there any um uh is AI the big thing so there's a lot of things that I saw on Twitter people are doing an over under of how many times they say AI on the earnings call what's that number gonna be thing I don't know I mean AI let's see how long is an earnings call let's call it 30 minutes um I say 24 times 24 no way more than that you think it's gonna be more I'll take over okay I'll take over he said 70.
I won't take over 70. but I'll take over 24. 24 and 70. you got to give a number give us a number 70 plus 24 is 94 47's right in the middle 47. all right no I think it's gonna be over 50 50 plus I'll say 55 my number's 55. all right sounds good so but but what is the bet Pride I don't know so is it whoever gets closer closer to the number percentages you can go over or you can get yeah in percentage no numbers okay sounds good all right I like 55.
all right all right so um let's take a look at analyst estimates they're expected to do 27.5 billion dollars this year in revenue does that sound right considering how they crushed it man look at these EPS growth look at this EPL guys here's the thing though they're expected in January in 2028 to make 13 a share according to analysts who are probably very Pro Nvidia 13 times even 20 is 260 a share so it's selling for how much right now the Stock's at 350.
it's currently selling for 26 times five years from now earnings I mean again if you believe you have to at some point question that now are they going to crush that they could very well crush this number these analysts could be very far behind and all of a sudden AI changed everything looking at this the PE is 180 The Five-Year PE is 147.
expensive yeah what would they do in net income this quarter a press release because nine a dollar two billion two and a half billion dollars is that what it was gross the net income two billion dollars okay amazing okay where's the 11 billion number for the second quarter where was that again uh it was a pure I'll scroll down second quarter fiscal Outlook of 11 billion oh yep okay all right so and it's in their Outlook section right look at their eight pillars here increase shares outstanding not by much four percent I don't blame him I'd be selling everything so PE five-year PE 147 five-year price of free cash flow 155.
so they're just to get back to normal levels they're free cap their their price is going to fall a ton or their free cash flows got to go up by 7x it's possible and again we've been in this position before I I've get back to my days of Amazon and I thought what is going on with Amazon made no sense it made absolutely no sense I mean maybe if AI takes off the way everybody's saying with Nvidia maybe it happens now the interesting part is I shorted a video with options which means even if Nvidia stays at 340 I could still make money because my bets are if they go to like 380 390 or higher then I start losing money overall but based on where it is today and how far out my Outlook is for NVIDIA it'll be pretty uh it's it's got to take some time it's gonna be pretty bad tomorrow but again if I believe in my thesis look at this V chart look at most screen right here look at that look at that absolute collapse and rebound that's wild crust yeah that's insane Mo really high return on invested Capital listen this is a great business that I want to own at some point well look at this market cap of 750 750 Enterprise value of 757 guys what this means is the difference between the market cap and the Enterprise Value is essentially the debt they got snow debt look at their average five-year free cash flow the five billion dollars wow wow wow wow man their five-year profit margins down the department margin last year is down from the last five years I mean one thing that does get me is looking at that Revenue jump that they did in 2020 I mean they went from 12 billion to 19 billion to 30 billion and now it's 25 billion in 2000 so and what do they expect to do for the year though is there any guidance for the year look at that press release I want to see what the guidance is for the year all right for Revenue this is Outlook so I don't let me scroll down more and see if they're guiding for the full year they might say it on their call later so that's the big thing because I don't see any year uh what is this no nope that's actually the actual okay right let's go to our stock analyzer tool now guys is what we use not including the balance sheet to project out revenue and profit and then create a multiple and a discounted cash flow essentially of what's that Worth to us today at the very bottom you pick your return you want and it'll pump out based on your assumptions here low middle and high what price you should pay based on every column all right very simple very popular in our subscription group if you want to get the software to be able to do this it is so valuable to you to make better financial decisions and look at companies as the present value of all future cash flow if you look at Nvidia as milia stock going up or down this is not for you we're not the channel for you and that's okay but if you look at and if you believe that it's possible to overpay for a good thing we're the channel for you the software is for you if you don't believe that there are a bunch of other Financial shy stores out there you can probably go to to get yourself feel really warm and fuzzy because a cool company keeps going up in price that's it right Mo yep absolutely all right so mo why don't you would do a 10-year analysis I'll do 20.
okay oh let's see here do a wide range I'm just telling her I have to do a wide range let's go this way let's go with okay so this is the hard part of investing is when you see a PE of 180 and a price of free cash flow 180 how do you go back down to double digits because people sit there and say wait a second that's that's too conservative so guys what I mean by that is like look at our PE right now the trailing 12 months not including this quarter it's 180 and 180 for price of free cash flow a like meet Kevin looks at a 200 PE and says well discount is 70.
no you look at historical average P of 15 and you go from there and you give more for high roic businesses which Nvidia is and high growth potential which it is but what's that reasonable number is it 30 is it 25 Warren Buffett paid 30 for Coke 30pe for Coke in 1987 so who knows so I put my numbers in I put 5 10 and 15 Mo what did you put in I did 8 14 and 22.
okay next decade profit margin I did 18 23 and 28 16 21 26. okay so a little bit lower than mine free cash flow margin I did the same thing same thing 16 21 26. okay what'd you do for PE 18 22 and 26. I did 16 19 and 22. well my thing was if they could do 22 Revenue growth with margins that they've done for the last five years okay they're gonna own that market and I don't blame you yeah and what'd you do for your desired return 11 13 and 15.
I did 10 12 and 14. remember guys Mo did 10 years I did 20 years so my numbers and the growth levels should be lower than his because it's harder to grow as time goes on hit the analyze button guys I I have a low of 34 a high of 135 a middle price of 70. well what do you have I have 35 on the low 158 on the high 72 in the middle watch list price of 80.
so let's let me show you what based on this guy look stay on the chat stay on this video because I want you to understand what it'll actually take in order to justify this value on the high side I'm gonna assume all my high assumptions all my high assumptions but what Revenue growth do I need to justify that for 20 years let's go 20 Revenue growth still not there 25 Revenue growth all right we're there okay so it's not that high 22 Revenue growth basically 22 Revenue growth you need for the next 20 years keep in mind 22 Revenue growth for 20 years that's 53 times and what do they do last year 25 billion they need to be at 1.3 trillion dollar Revenue company in 20 years everything has to go great yeah let me explain something to you I believe I read in a book I think it was in 100 Baggers that it's like very like no company has ever done like double digit for 20 years in a row it's very I mean I don't know that's true or not I don't remember that doesn't sound right but if you think about it to grow 50 times in 20 years for a company that's already doing 25 billion in Revenue right that's a very tough task for me they have to do 28 assuming my high end and I dropped my margin of safety to zero and and 28 for 10 years 28 for 10 years guys what large companies I mean listen at the end of the day guys I understand you're probably looking at us the same way people looked at us two years ago when we said tattooed Chef Nikola Workhorse all these idiot companies were terrible Peloton we said avoid them palantir and guess what look what happened to them is NVIDIA bubble the problem I have is everybody thinks a video is a bubble that were concerns man look at this Mo I know we're at 358.
yeah guys I want everybody to pray for me because tomorrow's gonna be a rough day for me there's gonna be a lot of red in my portfolio tomorrow so that do I have the balls to short more tomorrow I mean this would make me do it all right guys that's where we stand thank you very much for your time everythingmoney.com subscribe to the software one dollar per day this is incred this is incredible this really is this is incredible so thanks guys appreciate it bye
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